Outside the Beltway

Americans are rallying around the President in the wake of the mission against bin Laden, but it’s likely to be short-lived.

The impact of the death of Osama bin Laden on the domestic politics is likely to be minimal at best.

For the first time, Donald Trump is leading a poll for the GOP 2012 nomination. That’s bad news for the GOP.

Nate Silver argues today’s polls “have a reasonable amount of predictive power in informing us as to the identity of the eventual nominee.”

A new national poll suggests that moves to restrict the collective bargaining rights of public sector unions are not popular with the public at large:

Some thoughts on why certain topics get blogged.

Sarah Palin’s unfavorability ratings continue to climb. And there’s very little room for her recovery.

Honest pundits will tell you that it’s simply too early to make useful predictions about the 2012 elections.

President Obama is already taking heat from the left for his compromise on tax cut extensions, but will it actually hurt him in the end?

Republican maneuvering to extend the Bush tax cuts for all Americans appears about to pay off.

Democrats are losing the debate over the extension of the Bush tax cuts, but when you look at the playing field it seems pretty clear that that they never had a chance.

Some on the right are beginning to realize that Sarah Palin’s popularity may cause a serious problem for the GOP in 2012.

While Tim Pawlenty and John Thune get high marks from insiders, they have next to no shot at winning the 2012 Republican nomination for president.

Rasmussen’s sample is biased because they’re polling on the cheap — using robocalls, which by law can’t dial cell phones, and otherwise cutting corners — rather than because of some agenda to propagandize for the GOP. The end result, however, is the same: Polls that can’t be trusted.

Rasmussen polls were biased toward Republicans by 3 to 4 points. Rigged results? Or screening error?

We’ve been talking about the 2010 elections since, oh, the day after the 2008 elections.   Now, it’s time for final predictions.

A Hayes Research poll has Joe Miller in 3rd place in Alaska. They’re the only ones showing that and have a very poor track record.

Sharron Angle’s attorney is charging that “Harry Reid intends to steal this election if he can’t win it outright.” She touts various “shenanigans” in a fundraising letter.

The numbers coming out of the first few weeks of early voting confirms the enthusiasm gap that pollsters have been talking about for months.

Voters head to the polls in thirteen days, and current indications are that they’ll be handing a big victory to the Republican Party.

It’s looking less and less likely that the GOP will gain control of the Senate, but they’re going to come awfully close,, and that might be just as good from their point of view.

Republicans are suddenly targeting — and Democrats in some cases are conceding — House seats that were until recently considered out of play.

No Senate candidate with a lead of more than 5.5 points in the polling average, with 30 days to go in the race, has lost his race since 1998: these candidates are 68-0.

Even with some key seats trending Democrat, Republicans are primed to take over both Houses of Congress come November 2.

For the moment, the Tea Party movement is helping pull the GOP out of a slump that seemed like it would continue for a long time. Will it last, or will the movement end up doing for Republicans what the left has done for Democrats ?

While it will be difficult, the idea that Lisa Murkowski could win a write-in bid to retain her Senate seat is not at all implausible.

Christine O’Donnell’s victory in Delaware Tuesday has made it less likely that the GOP will be able to take control of the Senate, but they still have an excellent shot of making substantial gains that will transform Congress’s Upper House.

The Delaware GOP now has, according to Nate Silver, a 17% chance of winning the Senate seat.

The Nevada Senate race is, in many ways, a three-way in which none of the above could be a spoiler for Angle.

There’s not as much conservative unity on the gay marriage issue as there used to be.

A special tax rate for millionaires wouldn’t raise much additional revenue but it would make journalists feel better.

That attitudes towards gay marriage varies by state won’t surprise you. The degree to which it does just might.

What impact will Judge Walker’s decision on Proposition 8 have on politics in 2010 and beyond ?

Nate Silver provides yet more bad news for Democrats: When screening for “likely voters,” Republican numbers look even better.

Markos Moulitsas gets a lesson in caveat emptor from his former pollster.