How The New York Times Lost Nate Silver

Apparently, there was a culture clash at the Grey Lady.

Rejection Letters of the Philosophers

A new blog, Rejection Letters of the Philosophers, “imagin[es] what the greats of history might have been faced with, had they been forced to publish or perish.”

Charting 33 Years’ of FISA Reports to Congress

Exploring data from 33 years’ of FISA reports to Congress

Baghdad Bob Was Right After All

Emily DePrang looks back at “‘Baghdad Bob’ and His Ridiculous, True Predictions.”

Predicting the Future Is Hard, Old Man’s War Edition

Old Man’s war, a sci-fi novel about the distant future published in 2007, features Newsweek magazine, which went out of business in 2012.

Judging The 2012 Preditions

Last January 1, some of us made a series of predictions. Here’s how we did.

Americans Shut Out Of Intrade

Thanks to the CFTC, Americans will no longer be able to participate in Intrade’s predictions markets.

What do I Mean by “Benghazi Conspiracy Theories”?

An attempt to lay down some basic groundwork for discussing this story.

So What Did Silver Opponent Jay Cost Have to Say?

More griping about poor analysis.

Apparently, Citizens United Didn’t Ruin The Election After All

The impact of outside spending on the election turned out to be far less consequential than many had feared.

Conservative Media Bubble

If you’re a white Southerner who gets most of his information from Fox News and Rush Limbaugh, you probably don’t know a lot of people who voted for Barack Obama.

GOP Unlikely To Grab Senate This Year, But They’ll Have Another Shot In Two Years

The GOP’s hopes of taking over the Senate in 2012 have all but slipped away, but there is another option.

On Election Eve, The Race Is Close But Obama Has The Advantage

The 2012 Election promises to be close in the Popular Voter, but President Obama still retains an Electoral College advantage.

Virginia Now Leans Obama

Democrats Barack Obama and Tim Kaine have gained momentum in Virginia in weekend polling.

Democrats And The White Vote

President Obama is likely to win re-election while overwhelmingly losing the white vote. Does it matter?

2012 Congressional Election Predictions

OTB bloggers give their best guesses on the House and Senate races.

Interpretation, Art, and Analysis

The analyst actually wants to understand and be correct far more than he or she wants their preferences to prevail in the analysis

2012 Presidential Election Predictions

The OTB gang give their best guess at the outcome of the 2012 presidential contest.

Preparing to Evaluate the Predictions

Making note of some of the predictions and such as we approach November 6th.

Previewing Tonight’s Foreign Policy Debate

The candidate’s meet for one last time tonight to talk about some of the most important issues in the world.

2008’s Obama Derangement Syndrome Looks Ridiculous In Hindsight

Let’s take a trip back in time to see what some conservatives thought 2012 would look like if Barack Obama were elected President.

Romney’s Post-Debate Poll Bump

Mitt Romney has gotten a bump in the polls from Wednesday debate, but it’s still too early to say if it means anything.

Judge Blocks Pennsylvania Voter ID Law For 2012 Elections

A victory for opponents of Pennsylvania’s Voter ID law, but likely only a temporary one.

Supreme Court Faces Another Potentially Groundbreaking Term

The Court’s 2012-2013 term begins tomorrow morning, and there are plenty of big cases on the docket.

The Most Serious Aspect of the Poll Denialist Position

Getting to the heart of the problem from my POV (plus historical numbers).

What Happens To The GOP If Romney Loses?

Some Republicans are beginning to ponder what might happen to their party if Mitt Romney loses in 2012.

One Year Later, Study Finds No Harm To Military From DADT Repeal

Not surprisingly, a new study finds that repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell has not caused any harm to the military.

Really, Really Full Disclosure

Jonathan Bernstein didn’t make any predictions about the Wisconsin primary but wants you to know that, if he had, he would have been wrong.

One Year Later, The Debt Downgrade Doesn’t Seem To Have Mattered Very Much

One year ago, the U.S. lost it’s AAA credit rating with S&P. There doesn’t appear to have been any real impact from that decision.

Not Surprisingly, Olympics Mostly A Bust For London Retailers

Once again, we learn that hosting the Olympics doesn’t carry nearly the economic benefit the IOC wants host cities to believe it does.

What The Heck Happened With The Facebook IPO?

It was supposed to be the return of the heady days of the great Tech Industry IPOs. But, things didn’t quite go as planned.

No, Hillary Clinton Is Not Going To Replace Joe Biden As Vice-President

The “Clinton-Biden Switcheroo” Scenario is the pundit’s fantasy that will not die.

Supreme Court Appears Sympathetic To Some Parts Of Arizona Immigration Law

The Solicitor General had another bad day in Court yesterday.

Analysts Say Gas Prices May Have Peaked

Once again, those predictions of $5.00 gas may have been much ado about nothing.

ObamaCare At The Supreme Court, Day Two: The Mandate Under The Microscope

It seems to have been a rough day for the individual mandate at the Supreme Court.

US Capitol Rotunda US Capitol Rotunda

ObamaCare Goes Before The Supreme Court: A Preview

Starting tomorrow morning, the Supreme Court dives into the most significant case that has been before it in many years.

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Another Debt Ceiling Debacle Before The Election?

We may have to deal with the debt ceiling again before the November elections.

A Final Florida Preview

Voting has started in the biggest primary to date.

$4.00 Per Gallon Gas By Spring? Bye Bye Economic Recovery?

Higher gas prices in the spring could have an impact on the economy, and the election.

Last Night Was Ron Paul’s High Point

Last night was the high point of Ron Paul’s 2012 campaign for the Presidency.

Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, And The Pundit’s Fantasy That Will Not Die

Yes, it’s time to talk about that again.