The Economics President, Continued

Nothing like a war of choice to send indicators in the wrong direction.

President Donald Trump thanks the crowd after remarks at the Salute to America Celebration, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa.
Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok

Three headlines on the NYT home page at the moment.

1) Mortgage Rates Jump Again as Iran War Effects Ripple Through Housing Market.

The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the United States hit 6.38 percent, the fourth increase since the war began.

2. The war will push U.S. inflation above 4 percent this year, according to a new forecast..

The war in Iran will lead to a surge in inflation this year, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushes up prices for oil, gas and other commodities, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Thursday.

The inflation rate in the United States will average 4.2 percent this year, more than one percentage point higher than the group’s previous forecast, made late last year, the Paris-based organization said. Across the Group of 20 nations, inflation is forecast to average 4 percent this year, 1.2 percentage points higher than previously expected.

3. Oil Prices Go Higher and Global Stocks Fall.

  • U.S. gas prices ticked down less than a penny on Thursday to remain around a national average of $3.98 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. It was the first day the price did not increase since the war began, leaving the cost for drivers up 34 percent in that period.
  • Diesel prices have increased even more quickly, rising to $5.38, up 43 percent since the start of the war.

All of this is because Trump launched a war of choice without any notion of what strategic success would look like.

FILED UNDER: Dumbest Timeline, Economics and Business, Middle East, The Presidency, US Politics, World Politics, , , , , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Daryl says:

    Inflation? Fake news.
    Seriously…the only thing Fatso could brag about was the stock market…which really has NOTHING to do with the economy!!

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  2. Kathy says:

    How can there be inflation if the war is won and it’s not even a war but an excursion and it’s all NATO’s fault for not helping and Iran has given us a great gift and SQUIRREL!!1

    ReplyReply
  3. Daryl says:

    Real world. Gas at the corner was $3.09 on Feb 2, 2025. I have photos.
    It was $3.85 this past Tuesday. I have photos.
    That’s about $13.00 per tank for my Outback. Who knows for one of these bigass trucks?
    And while most presidents don’t affect gas prices, this is DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE to Fatso.

    ReplyReply
  4. reid says:

    @Daryl:

    I’m certainly not an economist, but it’s always seemed to me that if we continue to shift money into the upper income brackets and manage to avoid a Depression, the stock market will always go up.

    ReplyReply

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