The Violence Inherent in the System
Things may well get ugly regardless of the outcome of November's election.
In a Q&A for The American Prospect, Nixonland author Rick Perlstein and David Neiwert, who has spent decades covering right-wing extremism, discuss “The Election Story Nobody Wants to Talk About.” Neiwert, in particular, thinks we’re in for a wave of domestic terrorism regardless of how November’s election turns out.
The key section:
So let’s talk scenarios. What if Trump wins?
There are two components. One is the immigrant front, the whole Minutemen ethos is going to come into play here, where these guys armed with AR-15s will claim we’re just supplementing the government; we’re just rounding people up and serving them up to the Border Patrol. Which is what they did in Arizona for quite a few years. But this will spread to the national scale.
The second component, it’s pretty obvious that Trump and his minions basically hope that they can work the electoral count to a point where they can force the outcome of the election to either go through the Republican Congress or the Republican Supreme Court. But either way, it will be a de facto installment of a dictator. Then there will be massive protests—I think quite deservedly so. And the Three Percenters, militias, the Proud Boys, who have all been gearing up for this, are going to come out to play, not just defending the Trump administration but attacking the protesters. And doing so with reckless abandon. They’ll just call them “antifa”—[they] have a ready-made excuse.
If we’re talking about the kind of rhetoric we’re seeing in right-wing Telegram spaces, they’re basically talking about how it will be “decided by the bullet box, not the ballot box.”
What happens if the Democrats win?
Even a Joe Biden–sized victory, I think, could lead to instability. There will be contested states, like we saw in Arizona as well as Georgia. These actors will show up at ballot-counting centers, as well as at any other sort of body involved in counting and certifying the votes. We certainly saw in the spring of 2020, these armed bodies of men entering state legislatures. I think that this is their hope: that they can create a lot of chaos in places like Arizona and Georgia so that they can’t actually carry out their votes, can’t actually certify the votes. Then they will say, “Well, we’ll now throw it to the state legislatures.”
Do you see any coordination on that between officeholders and paramilitary actors?
I don’t know that there is any communication. A lot of it is just that they’re all swimming in the same soup.
And if Harris is inaugurated? Are we in the clear?
No. I think that we’ll have at least a year or two of dedicated domestic terrorism against various government entities, as well as liberal figures, including stepped-up attacks against drag queens. They’ll lean quite heavily into the Christian nationalist authoritarian agenda, against anyone supporting the, um, “demonic liberal agenda” …
Do you think appropriate law enforcement preparations are being made?
No. Nobody even talks about it, Rick. That’s why this is a problem. Nobody is even recognizing that this is building.
To counter this effectively, obviously you want to have the DOJ tuned in and ready, and I’m not sure that they are. Certainly, the FBI has shown itself to be extremely problematic under Christopher Wray in terms of the ongoing presence of dedicated Trumpists within the FBI. That’s the wild card. Law enforcement is our main guardrail for these kinds of things, and we have Trumpist cops working on the local level, we have them working on the state level, and we have them working on the federal level.
I think they actually played a large role in our failure to prosecute these January 6th insurrectionists adequately. Just think about how the Secret Service deleted all their freaking texts. And likewise, the FBI was not particularly forthcoming about their own internal communication regarding Proud Boys and Oath Keepers prior to January 6th, but we know that they were looking entirely in the wrong direction. They were planning on antifa showing up in Washington and creating these riots! And that was part of Trump’s plan, too: That was going to enable him to unleash the Insurrection Act. And then they didn’t show up. So they were just left to fight with the cops, right. But they will continue to throw that bogeyman out there.
The problem is that affects law enforcement, because we have a lot of law enforcement who fall for this stuff! Who watch Fox News, and believe that antifa is this deep, dark threat to America.
Is the media ready?
No. None of them are considering it as a factor. I think it’s amazing that someone like Amanda Moore, who did this incredible undercover work exposing these neo-Nazis’ connections to the Republican Party, she can’t even get an editor to pick up her work. All these editors and all these producers are all like, “That’s not interesting anymore, we don’t care about that stuff.” They are basically dismissing the problem: “We don’t need to keep talking about that sort of thing.”
Is this overwrought? Perhaps. Both men are clearly on the left and have made careers out of diagnosing conservative ideology as a dangerous pathology.
Doing a bit of background work, I came across George Will’s 2008 review of Nixonland for the New York Times. It’s critical, of course, but quite laudatory in parts and, I think, fair. This passage, toward the end of the review, stands out with the advantage of hindsight:
“How did Nixonland end?” Perlstein asks in the book’s last line. “It has not ended yet.” But almost every page of Perlstein’s book illustrates the sharp contrast rather than a continuity with America today. It almost seems as though Perlstein, who was born in 1969, is reluctant to let go of the excitement he has experienced secondhand through the archives he has ransacked to such riveting effect.
“We Americans,” he says, “are not killing or trying to kill one another anymore for reasons of ideology, or at least for now. Remember this: This war has ratcheted down considerably. But it still simmers on.”
Not really. America has long since gone off the boil. The nation portrayed in Perlstein’s compulsively readable chronicle, the America of Spiro Agnew inciting “positive polarization” and the New Left laboring to “heighten the contradictions,” is long gone.
So exquisitely sensitive are Americans today, they worked themselves into a lather of disapproval when Hillary Clinton said that Lyndon Johnson as well as Martin Luther King was important in enacting civil rights legislation. There has not been a white male secretary of state for 11 years. Today a woman and an African-American are competing relatively civilly for the right to run for president against the center-right—more center than right—senator who occupies the seat once held by Goldwater. Whoever wins will not be president of Nixonland.
It turns out, both Perlstein and Will were right. From the standpoint of 2008, the notion that the nation was anywhere near as polarized as it was in 1972, much less 1968, seemed absurd. But that election (and the Great Recession that would mark its decisive turning point) presaged a turn to radicalization. Donald Trump was a central figure in pushing the insidious idea that Obama wasn’t really an American. While there was certainly astroturfing at work, the bipartisan bailouts to mitigate the economic disaster helped drive the rise of the Tea Party (and the less sustained Occupy Wall Street movement) which raged that the elites of both parties were in the thrall of Big Business at the expense of the Little Man.
While we’re still not at 1968 levels of violence, we’re closer to it than we’ve been in decades.
When I saw “The Violence Inherent in the System”, I immediately thought of the role the semi-organized mob plays in Big Man or Jim Crow governance. There is almost always unofficial but tacitly sanctioned and encouraged paramilitary groups to do the intimidation, whether it be the Klan and now the Proud Boys and Minutemen in the US, or the death squads in Latin American countries or the Philippines.
It’s terribly uncivil, of course (/s), but they are not wrong.
Just yesterday, Vance told Harris to “go to hell” because two Trump campaign staffers assaulted an employee at Arlington National Cemetery.
Meanwhile, Trump paints himself as God’s anointed and vows to be a dictator (in between barely comprehensible ravings about, among other things, batteries and sharks).
Also, people died at Jan. 6. The death toll could have been a lot higher: there were pipe bombs that fortunately didn’t go off. All based on a very transparent lie that people nonetheless eagerly embraced.
Sounds pretty pathological to me.
* Perlstein, of course, has made a career of pointing out that there is a potentially violent, reactionary strain that is implicitly accepted among, sometimes even embraced by American conservatives that you won’t find in, e.g., your run-of-the-mill European Christian democratic party. Perhaps another result of the two-party system. Or maybe it’s race (which is, of course, also the root cause of the Civil War) that brings out the worst in some people.
So, “not all conservatives,” but enough.
Another point:
While this might be true, we are a lot closer to complete societal breakdown than any time in the 1960s.
There was already a failed coup. A successful one would lead to levels of violence not seen since the Civil War. How do you think an illegitimate government would react to the inevitable protests?
There would be – literally – blood in the streets.
I don’t remember who wrote it and I’m lazy to go looking for it but somebody at The New Republic predicted trouble to occur no matter what the outcome is in November. His prediction dates to the spring at least aka before the Trump-Biden debate.
Here’s my prediction- Trump will not go down quietly if he loses in November and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are riots.
As I’ve mentioned before, I expect open carry wankers to be hanging out near voting precincts. I’m just guessing, though; I haven’t actually read through the lunatic right-wing message boards. But I would suggest that anybody who plans on storming legislatures ought to watch their back, not every white male is on their side.
A round of applause from me for the Monty Python reference in the title. One of the great scenes, IMHO.
I took Perlstein to be saying that there remains a significant chunk of the Republican Party that is willing to use undemocratic methods to achieve power. And he was right all along.
The Brooks Brothers riot in 2000 presaged the more recent attacks on voting and intimidation of voting officials and workers. It was violence (mild violence, but violence) orchestrated by Republicans at the institutions of democracy.
I would also include the use of conspiracy theories about Vince Foster’s suicide in the Clinton years as undemocratic attempt to undermine Clinton. As well as the completely insane claims of “Arkancide” where the Clintons’ enemies in Arkansas all conveniently died.
There’s a through line of “might makes right” in right wing politics from Nixon to now. It’s the appeals to the lunatic fringe, and the attempts to radicalize people. Abortion is murder, you know.
My instinct is that we won’t hear much from these people. Their führer is weak and getting weaker, incapable of adapting, low energy, and eyeballing a fugitive run. If he loses Trump won’t be cheering on his minions, he’ll be on a flight out of the country. I think the energy will drain out of his culties. I think Evangelicals will be disheartened that Jesus will turn out to be no better than any other pundit. The small movement to reclaim the churches for Christianity will strengthen.
These fascist groups will try to hold on, but they will lack a unifying figure. There will be conflicts over leadership within and between these groups. And of course there will be a scramble to be the next Trump, but I don’t think any of the aspiring Admiral Doenitzes will carry much weight. And if there’s trouble we have the White House and the entire military chain of command. FBI, Staties and local cops will make short work of the boys.
The 1968 analogy died when the Gaza protests at the DNC fizzled.
What is important is not just that we win, but do it convincingly. That will end any coup attempt by the Josh Hawley/Marjorie Taylor Greene camp. So, donate money, and if you don’t have money, donate time. It’s time to finish these fucking people.
@Michael Reynolds: how confident are you about this?
Equating the violence of the late 60s with today’s seems a stretch. The issues then were racial tensions boiling over and drafting young men to kill and be killed in an obviously pointless war. Protests were aimed at specific policies of the establishment and were not partisan. When Johnson was prez they protested Johnson and when Nixon was in charge they protested Nixon. (Full disclosure, by they I mean we.) No one was talking about civil war. Later BLM/antifa protest was of the same nature.
J6 and the potential violence Perlstein and Neiwert are concerned about is partisan violence in support of the establishment (whether the participants realize it or not). OK, the cop riot in Chicago in the 60s was also in support of and directed by the establishment. In the quoted article Neiwert says there isn’t evidence of ties between the “militias” and pols. There was, after J6, talk of coordination through Roger Stone and others with “militia” leaders. Nothing seems to have come of that. (Thanks Garland.) And I would be amazed if Cruz, Hawley, Abbott, etc. don’t retain staffers who are tight with “militias”.
It’s a long time since I read Nixonland, but I don’t remember it as focused on the protest and division so much as on Nixon cynically exploiting and furthering division. Far from dying out, Reagan and Bush and Bush and now Trump have continued and expanded that strategy. Will is a twit.
Someone should point out to the “militia” leaders how generously Hitler rewarded Ernst Rohm.
@Monala:
Pretty confident. I’m sure there are MAGAts in the FBI and in PDs, but it’s one thing to turn a blind eye to organizing and marching, and a very different matter to go along with terrorism. And we have a great many January 6 terrorists in prison, thanks to the FBI.
The wisdom of Don Corleone: “It’s true I have a lot of friends in politics, but they wouldn’t be so friendly if they knew my business was drugs instead of gambling which they consider a harmless vice. But drugs, that’s a dirty business.”.
There’s LARPing as a tough guy, and then there’s 20 years in federal prison.
It’s hard to stage a coup when one isn’t part of the government or the military. January 6 was a badly executed coup conceived by inept know-nothings. What the Weirdo Felon is reduced to now, is pressuring state officials to miscount the vote, or to certify him as the winner regardless of the actual count. I don’t think he can do that in most swing states, as most have a Democratic governor (exceptions Nevada and Georgia).
He can try to send the cosplay militias to interfere. That would be bad, and I hope the state officials are taking measures to prevent or stop that kind of insurrection. But we live in the world where nothing bad happens until something bad happens.
Still, what would it look like to most people if armed yahoos go storming electoral offices where votes are being counted? I think most would clamor to get riot police and the national guard to beat them senseless.
El Weirdo cannot call on the army and give them orders, either. He missed that boat in 2021.
I agree that we arent near 1968, BUT there was no cult of personality back then either. Most of the old fat guys running around in camo and waving guns will fold but it looks to me like there is a committed core that would be willing to take things further given the word from the cult leader.
Steve
Trump’s plan to overturn the 2020 election was improvised at the last minute and was kind of stupid. But what else would you expect from Trump? The J6 riot seems to have been incited by Trump, but not well planned or coordinated. (There’s still a lot we don’t know.)
This time around he, and his minions, have had four years. However, it still doesn’t look very well organized, although there could be stuff out of sight. However there are a lot of very well armed, not terribly rational, people floating around. And there’s a partisan Court that can’t be trusted. My fear is that come February we’ll be looking at wreckage and saying what Deep Throat said in the movie about Watergate, “Forget the myths the media’s created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”
I take the absence of crowds gathering around the jails and prisons where the J6 perps were held to demand their release as a significant indicator.
Generally speaking, The Don’s peeps will never ever admit it but they know they were had.
@Kathy:
Were the overthrows of The Shah, Batista, and Ferdinand Marcos coups or revolutions?
Note- I have some experience with attempted coups when Corazon Aquino ruled the Philippines.
@Bill Jempty:
I’m not very familiar with the specifics of each case, and the definitions of coup and revolution, as well as insurrection, vary a lot between different people.
@Bill Jempty: @Kathy:
There is also the matter of terrain. It’s good to have a jungle or some mountains to hide out in as you gather your forces. The Confederacy had acreage, these guys have what, compounds?
If the Proud Boys start terrorist activity the day after the inauguration, the last of them will be dead or in prison within four years. Lone wolf randos may be a bigger problem, but not remotely existential.
And if the GOP House think they’re going to pull any bullshit they should remember that Biden will still be president at that time, and Trump’s SCOTUS has given him immunity. By the way, the Capitol Police would love a chance to arrest some Republican House members.
@steve: I think the committed core is very possible. Whether that core is large enough to effectively attempt a putsch or merely to fill hundreds of body bags is another question. And I don’t have the answer to that one. And the answer may hinge on who is willing to kill whom.
@Bill Jempty:
Bill… what did you do? Did you attempt to take over the Philippines? What have we told you about overthrowing governments and installing yourself as a dictator. Bad Bill! Very bad!
Oh, who can argue with those puppy dog eyes. Have a Venezuela.
@Gustopher: At Subic, we were put on alert during one.
Five months after marrying my wife, I was on the way to the Philippines so as to be with her when she had her embassy interview, when another coup attempt.
There’s a long story involving the second one which happened on Dec 1 1989. It wasn’t a whole lot of fun when people are getting shot in Manila and you don’t know where your wife is and can’t contact her.