Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, October 17, 2024
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34 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Had a nice little fever going, which broke at 3:00 in the morning, leaving me feeling hungry and full of the jittery energy you can get after your immune system fights off an attack. Feeling fine though sleepy. Fine enough to smoke a cigar on the hotel balcony, causing my wife to call me an idiot.
Wrote a few pages. I think now I know where this book is going. I wonder if I can get it published. I’ve never not gotten a book published, but I’ve gone to a weird place and there’s a first time for everything.
Speaking of publishing, has anyone seen Jempty?
Fox Poll has Trump by 2, Marist has Kamala by 5 and Marquette has it tied. TIPP has Harris by 4. 538 rates TIPP very low, but the other three are solid pollsters. Try reading those tea leaves. Choose your own adventure. 538’s average has Kamala up by 2.4 points, static, and basically every single swing state is dead even.
I await the Mother Poll, the NYT. Is there any detectable movement? What’s the direction, Kenneth?
We enter the home stretch. Are we to be a democracy? Or a fascist dictatorship? “A republic, madam, if you can keep it.” If there’s any hope, and despite my gloomy prediction, hope keeps sneaking back into my brain, it’s GOTV and new registrations. If there’s a turning point, I wonder if it will be the Lord of the Dance moment, as proof that Trump has lost his fucking mind? I wonder if at least some of the MAGAts are starting to realize that Trump will crash the economy with his tariffs and immigrant round-ups. I wonder if Bidness Genius Jack/Drew will address the inflation effects of tariffs?
We don’t need a single MAGA voter, we just need a bare few of them to stay home.
Storm is coming to Nice. The surf is up. There are croissants to be eaten.
Early voting in Georgia is apparently going gangbusters. But what does it mean?
Is everyone sick of the election and just wants to get it out of the way? That’s my wife and I. Early voting in Texas starts Monday.
Is there enthusiasm for one candidate or the other?
See who has cast a ballot in Georgia’s record-breaking early voting
Too bad Trump doesn’t have the courage to be interviewed on MSNBC.
Of course, exactly nobody is surprised that the guy who hid out in a bunker the last year of his presidency is a coward.
@Michael Reynolds:
Sticking my right hand up in the air. I saw him in the mirror yesterday.
I go to the kidney specialist today and I’m not looking forward to it for two reasons. One- he is likely to tell me I’m going to need some form of surgery. Two- He is known to keep patients waiting hours for their appointments. Mine is 2:45. Will I be home in time for the 6 p.m. news?
My next book is motoring along. I’m writing its concluding parts right now. After which I will read it over and do fixes before submitting it to my long time editor, Leeanne. She’s working on early parts of my Yakuza epic.
Plus my WW II writer collaborator has sent to me his early work on the book we’re doing together. I have not studied too long but it looks good. Tom says he really got into writing it and fleshing out what I started. I’d be expecting that book to be ready for our editor by year’s end.
That WW II story I called ‘Casualties of War’ for the longest time but Tom suggests ‘MISSing in Action’ instead. Considering the plot it is an appropriate name. Note the part of the word missing that is emphasized
My first traditionally published book has hit the stores. I have autograph signings to do starting the Thursday after election day.
Michael, I envy you. A cruise on the QM 2 and a beautiful hotel in Nice. First heard of Nice when I was 13. It was the site of the 1974 Chess Olympiad. I have a book written on that event.
I’m busy. My prediction that Trump wins still stands. Yada yada yada…..
Now let me shave so I can double check I can still see myself in the mirror.
Remember the discussion on plane boarding methods? American will try to police boarding order.
How hard is it? Well:
New technology??
Anyway, the flaw is apparent in “The gate agent is then supposed to ask the passenger to step aside until their group is called.”
I gather prior to this high tech breakthrough, gate agents simply didn’t check the boarding status of any passengers. So, that’s something.
Only to the extent that “address” means “devise a way to profit from them.”
Enjoy your croissants.
I posted late yesterday about El Weirdo trying to pay off Stormy Daniels recently to silence her.
I don’t think this will get him in further legal trouble, though trying to hide a hush money payment within a court settlement may be fraud. I just don’t get the obsession in keeping people quiet. What can Stephanie Clifford say now that she hasn’t already disclosed?
Oh, Iran has time travel, and they’re wasting it in some obscure hush money scheme.
Here is Michael Moore’s take on the election:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRe-5uspGQM
Two years ago today:
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden (Bloomberg)
What do economics do that a fortune cookie cannot?
@Kathy: They will give us everything except a comfortable in-flight experience.
@DK:
Come come, now. Economists are brilliant at retro-prediction, the science of predicting what has already happened.
I’m a fan of this guy, an Aussie economist. In just about every video he repeats the mantra, “No one can predict the future, least of all economists.”
Ah, the far right Christians are at it again:
Evangelicals for Harris Asked to ‘Cease and Desist’ Billy Graham Ad
Evangelicals for Harris are being legally threatened for copyright infringement.
I say, yes! let’s have a loud, continuing conversation about the extremist Christian Nationalists support for that Tool of Satan, Donald Trump.
@DK:
I used to follow a libertarian aviation blog, until I got tired of the politicization of all aspects of travel. This guy used to advice those who wanted a good in-flight experience, and a complimentary meal and checked bags, to buy first class or business class tickets. Like, you know, we all could do if we weren’t so cheap and whiny.
Anyway, Delta’s begun to unbundle its premium fares. It’s not so bad yet that a Delta One fare will just mean a better seat. Meals are still included. But they’re beginning to charge for seat selection, checked bags, and lounge access.
All hail Shareholder Value!
This fake ad may be the best ad I’ve ever scene about Trump:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBNT8P_RcXZ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
@Bill Jempty:
I was in Nice under very different circumstances, when I was 18 or so. I spent a week in the youth hostel up on the side of the mountain. Lived on hot dogs with spicy mustard from a little stand inside of Galleries Lafayette.
Best of luck on your health issues. And waiting rooms.
In an effort to end “screen time” for about 30 minutes before bedtime, I’m re-reading some of my many print books. Currently it’s “The Caves of Steel,” by Isaac Asimov, the first of his Elijah Baley novels.
He sets up a political and sociological situation I found of interest even on first reading the book, lo these many years ago. TL;DR humanity is divided between Earth and Spacers. Earth is horribly overpopulated (8 billion people!!!), rather poor, and forced into a highly communal way of life. The 50 Spacer worlds are underpopulated (populations between 20,000 and 200 million), very wealthy, very individualistic, and make extensive use of robots for labor.
Fair enough.
The thing is Earth has had to build its cities largely underground for energy efficiency (though they make extensive use of nuclear power, so go figure), at high population densities. No one lives on the open surface. It’s given over to robots for mining and farming; the latter mostly wood to feed gigantic yeast farms that produce most of the food people consume.
Plausible. Though not at 8 billion people. We are at around that number now, and underground cities fed on yeast derivatives are really very few right now…
Here’s what bothers me: (SOILER ALERT)
Part of the plot hinges on a Terran going outside the city. Just about everyone who contemplates this possibility considers it impossible, unthinkable, ludicrous, ridiculous, unimaginable, etc. Asimov offers that all Terrans are agoraphobic, seeing as they are all raise inside underground cities where no sunlight is ever allowed to come in, and no one ever leaves to go outside for any reason (in a subsequent book, we learn commercial flights lack windows, and take off from covered runways; no mention is made of who flies such planes).
And this requires an effing BIG construction crane to suspend my disbelief.
Not only for the obvious reason that there are always exceptions to the norm, but that every single serious design I’ve ever seen for underground living (there are a great many), includes means of allowing or even forcing natural light inside. Not to mention that there is no prohibition in the novel for people to venture outside if they so desire.
Asimov, as far as I know, wasn’t agoraphobic. He was a claustrophile, meaning he preferred enclosed spaces. He was once asked in connection to “Caves” how he imagined such a nightmarish situation, to which he replied “What nightmarish situation?” So to some extent he was projecting his love of enclosed spaces to every last person on the Earth of the future.
Judging by the French language texts I’m getting they’re very, very worried about the thunderstorm coming our way. Europeans don’t have hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes or million square mile wildfires. Pussies.
So I finally got my mail ballot yesterday afternoon, a full week after they were supposed to be mailed out – forcing me to wade through the intimidatingly huge voter’s guide this morning.
Out of 15 initiatives, about a dozen are hard right bullshit, most of these also seriously reduce the power of the Governor or other elected executive branch and give more power to the legislature which is still controlled by right wing kooks. and/or add pointless red tape and obstacles. Hard no!
One or two are kind of woo woo stuff like jungle primary, more hard No.
So out of 15 only one Y from me – 139 the right to abortion measure.
I understand two of the right wing supreme court judges are up for retention, Y or N, and guess what?
So that’s my update from Maricopa County.
@Michael Reynolds: Michael, is it possible our paths may have crossed? In the summer of ’72 at age of 18, I had a round trip airline ticket ($189?) from NY to Luxembourg, 2 month Eurail pass, a youth hostel card, Frommer’s Europe on $5 a day, and about $300 in traveler’s check. I remember staying in Nice and going to the beach there. Highly improbable but…
@Scott:
You know, the timing is just about right. Eurail, check. Frommer’s, check. Do you remember a kid with bushy blond hair trying unsuccessfully to get laid?
@Michael Reynolds: LOL. Unfortunately, no. I was too busy trying unsuccessfully to get laid. And blushing too much at the topless beaches.
Israel got Sinwar.
Boy, his master plan is going really well.
@DK: Economists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions.
This made me laugh. I’ve always thought of Trump as a phony tough guy.
Dave Bautista Shreds Trump’s Masculinity
@Scott: Yeah, I just watched that, and laughed entirely too much.
I have spent my entire life despising “macho bullshit” and Trump’s is at the top of the list for phoniness.
And, kudos to Bautista and the writers for sticking with the phrase “tough guy” rather than “masculinity”. I endorse this. I feel that if a man does something, that makes it manly, that makes it masculine. My own father was a good cook and great with kids.
The whole “tough guy” thing is about bullying people – and I guess some folks want to be around a bully, because they think that will help them, but bullies bully out of habit, and your turn will come.
I just got back from early voting. I don’t know what it means but the line was so long it took an hour and a half to get to the voting booths. This is rural Tennessee, deep red country that went two thirds for Trump in 2020. There have been very few signs and surprisingly about half and half for Harris and Trump.
I am still in the doctor’s office and it is pat five. My quip about being home in time for the 6 o’clock news is coming true.
I am still in the doctor’s office and it is pat five. My quip about being home in time for the 6 o’clock news is coming true.
@Bill Jempty:
And this was for a 2:45 appointment?
https://x.com/TheDailyShow/status/1846884482277634162
https://x.com/BettyBowers/status/1847011693962186914
@CSK:
Yes it was. I got home at 6 on the nose.
The appointment went well. I’m write more about it tomorrow. Time to take a shower.
@Bill Jempty:
My doctor is always prompt. That costs me $2700 a year – concierge service. For which he tells me, ‘for God’s sake, don’t have any serious medical done in Vegas.’ $2700 to hear, ‘Fly to Cedars or UCLA.’
America! Hang in there.
@Michael Reynolds:
I know there are wildfires (though perhaps smaller ones) and earthquakes in Europe. Volcanoes, too. Tornados seem to be exclusively reported in North America for some reason, but I suppose they can happen elsewhere.
Atlantic hurricanes tend to move west, but there are exceptions. Milton, you may have noticed, formed in the Gulf of Mexico and moved east towards Yucatan and Florida. Often in the National Hurricane Center website, there are storms forming in the Atlantic which are projected to move east and dissipate over the ocean.
Not always. Mostly remnants of hurricanes can hit Europe, but at least two cyclones downgraded to tropical storms did this century, according to Wikipedia. Vince in 2005 hit Spain, and Alpha hit Portugal in 2020.
Of course this is peanuts compared to the regular pounding the eastern side of central and north America get year after year. But it does happen.
And there are cyclone storms in the Mediterranean.
@Kathy: In East Asia (as opposed to Eastasia, but probably there, too, come to think of it) hurricanes are called “typhoons.” Occasionally one hits Korea. I remember one big storm in Daegu* that flooded the o-guri (a five road intersection) near the school I taught at up to 100 feet up each roadway. The fire brigade was sandbagging doorways of businesses to keep the floods at bay and searching for the storm drains to find ways to unplug them.
*I can’t remember whether it was a typhoon or not. I suspect not because I’d been out for a walk near the river when the rain started and don’t remember any high winds. ETA: It was during the monsoon season, though. I’m fairly sure of that.