Outside the Beltway

Texans don’t prejudge Christians for sex scandals. They owe Muslims the same respect.

Scott says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 08:47

Chris Tomlinson is one of my favorite local columnists. The Texas Republican Party is going full Klan this election season.

On average, a Christian pastor is arrested for a sex crime involving a Texas child twice a month, raising questions about whether churches are safe places for young people.

On Valentine’s Day, Amarillo police arrested Baptist minister and former Fritch Mayor William “Billy” Robbins for alleged possession with intent to promote child pornography, television station KVII reported. A week before that, Irving police arrested Troyce Hernandez of Arlington’s True Grace Church for alleged indecency with a child.

The relentless drumbeat of arrests, confessions and convictions reveals a disturbing pattern of Christian clergy abusing children. Denominations ranging from the Roman Catholic Church to the Southern Baptist Convention have a documented history of protecting pedophile preachers.

Does this mean the Christian faith and Christians condone pedophilia? No. Does it mean we should shut down churches? Of course not.

Most Texans understand that criminals sometimes cloak themselves in clerical vestments. Yet Texas Republicans in tight elections this year are promoting bigotry and discrimination against Muslims because of a handful of evildoers.

Politicians who crowed about religious freedom now want to violate the rights of those who don’t share their beliefs.

State Comptroller Kelly Hancock, who is struggling to win his election, has manufactured excuses to deny school vouchers to Islamic institutions. Attorney General Ken Paxton keeps suing Muslims interested in constructing a housing development outside Dallas.

Gov. Greg Abbott and U.S. Senate candidates John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt are all stoking fears of Islam in campaign ads. Others, like Railroad Commission candidate Bo French and attorney general candidates Chip Roy, Mayes Middleton, and Aaron Reitz, have promised legal action against Texas Muslims for their religion.

“Islam is not compatible with Western civilization,” Reitz declared in one of the most hateful and ignorant ads of this election. “Politicians have imported millions of Muslims into our country. The result is more terrorism, more crime, and they even want their own illegal cities in Texas to impose Sharia law.”

None of that is true; it is pure bigotry. GOP candidates are trying to gain traction from a fake Islamic threat that Christian nationalists implanted in the imaginations of Republican primary voters.

There’s more but the writing is succinct and pointed.

In my humble theological opinion:

Christian Nationalism = White Nationalism = Satanism

7

Scott says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 09:06

I get a morning newsletter from Punchbowl News. Sort of a gossipy, navel gazing Washington product dedicated to politics. They seem to be obsessed with following the money. Here is a succinct summary:

The money wave. Corporate America is coming for the midterms.

An unprecedented number of free-spending super PACs — many backed by corporations and their top executives — are gearing up to influence the 2026 elections, pushing their preferred candidates and policies.

The most recent news dropped Wednesday in the New York Times. Tech giant Meta is gearing up to spend $65 million on state races to boost candidates who are “friendly to the artificial intelligence industry.”

In fact, the AI political-industrial complex is something to behold. With state, city and local governments pushing back against both AI companies and the nationwide data center boom, the ultra deep-pocketed corporations are responding by flexing their financial muscle.

Jobs and Democracy PAC, which is supported by AI company Anthropic, is boosting candidates who are favorable toward state regulations of AI.

This morning, the PAC will announce plans to spend $450,000 to support Democratic New York State Assemblymember Alex Bores, who is running in the crowded field to replace Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) in the Manhattan-based 12th District.

Jobs and Democracy PAC is part of Public First, an advocacy network that’s helping candidates who want to tackle AI safety and limit exports of advanced tech. Anthropic recently announced it was putting $20 million behind Public First.

Leading the Future has $39 million on hand. A16z, and OpenAI President Greg Brockman are supporting this group.

Leading the Future has a Democratic component: Think Big, which is backed by Silicon Valley stalwart Ron Conway, Brockman and his wife.

But AI is hardly the only player in the big money game right now.

Fairshake, the leading crypto PAC, raised $193 million for the midterm elections. The super PAC, backed by a16z and Coinbase, is already one of the most active players in boosting candidates friendly to the digital asset industry.

The Digital Freedom Fund PAC is another pro-crypto PAC backed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. The Winklevoss brothers put $21 million into the PAC — in Bitcoin. As of the end of 2025, it reported just $723,361 in the bank.

Fellowship PAC has said it would spend $100 million on the midterms. Their most recent FEC filing showed that they had raised nothing and had no money in the bank. The group is linked to Cantor Fitzgerald, the investment bank that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick once ran. The American Growth Alliance, a collection of major banks, has a new 501(c)(4), which plans to spend in the election as well.

Elon Musk looks like he will be back spending on congressional races after pouring more than $250 million in the 2024 presidential campaign. Musk donated $20 million to GOP super PACs this cycle.

What does this mean? The rise of these industry-funded groups helps shift power away from the party committees and their chief allied super PACs: House Majority PAC, Senate Majority PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund.

It also adds an element of uncertainty into the midterm landscape. The Fairshake network tries hard to balance out its spending between parties to ensure it can advocate for its industry’s interests no matter which party controls Congress. But will these new groups be as conscientious?

One other important question: Will these groups spend more in safe seats or competitive ones? A safe-seat win is cost effective. That member can be in Congress for decades. But House and Senate leaders in both parties will be most interested in the battleground races. Let’s say a pro-AI group comes in big for an endangered GOP member. That lets CLF redirect its resources somewhere else. It could have a huge domino effect across the map.

Eusebio says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 09:32

@Scott:
Not surprising that 58% of Canadian adults “disagree that the United States is a reliable ally,” based on what I think the words is and reliable mean. I might’ve expected the number to be higher.

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 09:39

While El Taco assembles the largest concentration of offensive air power in the Middle East since 2003, he also holds a meeting for his board of peace.

George Orwell couldn’t be reached for comment.

4

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 09:49

@Scott:

If they spent more on wages and benefits for their employees, they wouldn’t need to buy elections.

6

gVOR10 says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 10:35

Well, good morning. Waking to a really cheery list of comments so far at the Forum. How do Trump supporters not recognize that this stuff is nuts?

The answer is largely FOX “News”.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/19/politics/trump-refugees-memo-detain-immigration-hnk

Bobert says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 12:16

CNN: Trump administration expands ICE’s ability to detain legal refugees in latest memo.

Apparently if the administration can’t issue a green card to a legal refugee because of the government’s backlog, you can be placed in Trump’s concentration camp for ????

reid says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 12:25

Reading articles today about how the US military is almost in place for a potential strike on Iran, and they’re just waiting for Trump to decide what to do. I can’t imagine a dumber timeline.

CSK says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 12:51

i don’t think it’s largely Fox News; I think it’s dispositional on the part of the enthusiastic Trumpkins. I recall reading a fascinating article shortly after the 2016 election reporting that in Mississippi there were considerable numbers of men and women in their forties and fifties who had never voted before. But they came out in droves to vote for Trump. Clearly they were ultra-low news consumers, even of Fox.

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 12:57

I just finished doing something with the bank, which included opening an account. In the old days, assuming you were close to a branch office, this might have taken 60-90 minutes, including travel time.

In these new, efficient, days of cell phones and apps, it took only 120 minutes over two days.

Rick DeMent says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 13:07

@Kathy:

I know right. The first thing on the agenda of the “Bord of Peace” is whether or not to bomb Iran.

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 13:33

@Rick DeMent:

We passed Ignorance is Strength a while ago. Now we’ve reached War is Peace.

As soon as they realize they need the immigrant workers they’ve detained and deported, we’ll complete the trifecta one way or another.

gVOR10 says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 13:34

@CSK: Yesterday I stumbled across a Substack with an interesting explanation of Trump, abusive child rearing.

Specifically: Authoritarian child abuse—and the way it wires people’s brains, early and permanently, to seek out charismatic narcissistic abusers like heat-seeking missiles launched from the tiny neglected hearts of their own bruised inner children.

Because when you’ve been raised to believe that “love” looks like unquestioned power, punishment, and the Holy Belt of Righteous Correction—
when you’ve been taught that independent thought is the Devil’s playground—
when you’ve been trained to believe your needs will only be met by enabling and defending a person who hurts you—

A narcissistic strongman doesn’t scare you.
He feels like home.
…
To understand how we got a president who throws tantrums, grifts openly, and seems to confuse the Constitution with a doctored golf scorecard, we have to talk about childhood.

Specifically, American childhoods. The kind where “discipline” wasn’t just a word—it was a family hobby.

The writer quotes some respected authorities on fascism stating the same theory. I’m a bit unconvinced this is a major factor, but that may be because I’m naive about how many families have practiced “strict father” abusive childrearing.

Gustopher says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 14:34

@Kathy:

We passed Ignorance is Strength a while ago. Now we’ve reached War is Peace.

Ignorance is Peace.

becca says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 14:37

Streaming our local news is so depressing. Every other ad is promoting online gaming or sports betting. Lots of the gambling games are directed at kids. Colorful cartoon animals and kiddie voices, with promises of super easy money. Seedy and sleazy as all get out.

Unfortunately, lotteries and gambling have, over time, been become cash cows for states, replacing other more progressive taxes.And gambling addictions are ruining a lot of young men, according to Dave Ramsey, the Christian conservative financial advisor. On this issue, I’m with him.

Between all the crypto scams and prediction markets, it’s more like living on Pleasure Island instead of America. The enshittification of America continues apace.

5

charontwo says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 14:37

but that may be because I’m naive about how many families have practiced “strict father” abusive childrearing.

Back around the time I moved to TX, 1988ish, there was a movement to end school spanking. It was unsuccessful, a majority of TX voters liked having the schools cleared to spank their kids.

My guess is school spanking is or was culturally typical in the states of the old Confederacy.

Beth says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 14:49

@CSK:

i don’t think it’s largely Fox News; I think it’s dispositional

I think this is a lot of it, not just for enthusiastic Trump supporters, but for Conservatives writ large. Dispositional, with reinforcing “programming” from Fox News.

My father in law is a good example. He’s not an enthusiastic Trump supporter, but he’s a supporter anyway. He’s got a black grandchild, a daughter married to a trans (that fled the country), and he’s from MN. He fundamentally refuses to admit that things are fucked and that the GOP is responsible for it.

I work/ed with and around a bunch of different real estate developers. I had direct exposure to real estate developers and contractors. Almost uniformly they were some of the absolute dumbest people I have ever met. But they were great at selling things and great at moving money around to keep the operation afloat until bullshit debt* caught up to them. When I explained this to my father in law, he absolutely refused to believe me, because 1. I am an idiot child and not his equal (I was in my 40’s and had been a lawyer for at least 10 years), and 2. real estate developers have money so that means they are smart. #1. was probably the most important reason why he will never believe me.

As a person who grew up an an abusive home and deals with C-PSTD daily, this theory sounds very plausible to me.

It teaches kids that love = fear. That power = safety. That obedience is the highest virtue, and questioning authority gets you a backhand and a one-way ticket to Hell.

The version I got was everyone is mad at me, at all times. That everything I do is wrong. Not only wrong, but stupid, so stupid that I shouldn’t even try. I think I posted a DJ mix I made here a couple weeks ago. Getting to the point of doing that took an enormous, painful, effort on my part to get through the programming of my parents. It was so hard, that my brain is actively trying to talk me out of doing it again. I have an idea of what happened to me**, I have been through a shit load of therapy, and I will battle against the ghosts of my parents for the rest of my life.

If someone has been programmed by their parents like in the quote above, and which I believe is very common, if they don’t actively try to heal, nothing will get better for us. The only grace we’ll get is that Trump will die and the rest of those freaks don’t have the juice to take over from him.

They’re all convinced they do, but that’s cause they’re dispositionally dipshits.

*Like Tech Debt, but for bullshitting dipshits.
**One thing childhood trauma does is make swiss cheese out of my memory. The only way for me to understand my childhood is through a sort of gravitational lensing of how I react to things now.

CSK says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 14:57

I’m wondering if the families that produce Trump voters (the parents as well will be Trumpkins) is more a form of very specific verbal abuse: i.e. the parents repeatedly telling the kids that they don’t have any friends, that all people outside the family represent some sort of danger.

Joe says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 15:22

“Islam is not compatible with Western civilization,”

@Scott: Perhaps this is because Sharia law doesn’t condone ministers sexually abusing children contrary to their experience of current state law.

4

Jay L. Gischer says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 16:03

@gVOR10: The details may vary, but I am certain this has so much to do with it. The people from my youth that I identify with the worst sort of authoritarian upbringing are also those who are the most vocal and strident Trump supporters.

One aspect of this is how little able they are to tolerate uncertainty. Which I expect means that when this falls apart, it will fall hard.

EXCEPT, some of them have walked away, they have engaged in a healing process and seek to do things a different way. So, nothing is fixed in stone.

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 16:38

I observed rigorous masking during the trump pandemic, and managed not to catch the trump virus all that time, and for years after vaccination as well. I’ve kept masking, less rigorously, since then as a means of avoiding the common cold and flu. I pretty much wear a mask at work, and whenever I go out.

I still managed to catch cold, about twice a year, since 2024.

So, what gives?

I concluded I avoided COVID more through a mixture of luck and the general other precautions put in place, like distancing, more people masking, less people around overall, etc.

And yet, over the past two weeks, about half the people in our area caught a particularly nasty variety of cold, including two who sit close to my place, and I’ve avoided it.

Seeing others who don’t wear masks did too, I can’t credit continued masking. But it’s nice not to be stricken with it while Hell Week marches on.

I suppose one possibility is they caught a more recent COVID variant. I’ve had the yearly shots since 2023 (though due to work I’ve delayed this year’s shot), so I’m probably better protected against it.

Who the hell knows. I can’t exactly run a double blind trial at the office…

JohnSF says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 16:51

Next day after next day reply to @Kathy
My personal opinion (for what little that may be worth), given no major US land forces or amphibious groups are moving, is the Administration/Pentagon has no intention of taking Iran.

Assuuming they have anything resembling a coherent plan, it will probably be to dismember Iranian government and military command structures, communications, and leadership targets.
Destroy both ofeensive and defensive missile sites and stocks.
And to hit various missile production and nuclear related stuff.

The calculation might be that sufficient regime degradation can produce a revolt/civil war, while the US just watches from the sidelines.

Of course it might be possible that Trump might address the nation, and set out his reasons and objectives in regard to a major military operation. Or more likely, not.
Or adress Congress for a vote of support?
I suspect we”ll see pigs flying over Iran before that happens.

Anyway, the Ford is now heading through the Med fast enough to make a speedboat blush.
Should turn up near Cyprus around Sunday morning, at present speed.
The question then is, does it turn for Suez, or take station off the Israeli coast?

Once it’s got to wherever its heading, be that eastern Med or a transit of Red Sea (which will add a week or so) then its a matter of days to a couple of weeks before either Iran caves, Trump backs off, or the shooting starts.
Sustaining the current scale of land-based aircraft in the area for much longer is likely to become problematic, given the level of maintenance and support involved.

dazedandconfused says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 17:16

@JohnSF: There is a clear possibility it’s just classic gunboat diplomacy, and Trump only wants a “deal” of some kind as another trophy. If so it would be wise for the Iranians to play along so they probably will. If they don’t Trump will lob some bombs in there so he can instead brag he obliterated something, a consolation prize for his ego, but that’s about it.

dazedandconfused says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 17:19

Under the heading of “Things that make you go hmmmm…”

Beth says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 17:27

@JohnSF:

The calculation might be that sufficient regime degradation can produce a revolt/civil war, while the US just watches from the sidelines.

Of course! That’s the US way, war in the Middle East on the cheap. It’s worked great for 70+ years.

JohnSF says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 17:46

@Beth:
Wheter such a plan would actually work is very doubtful
But i suspect that’s what they are thinking.
tbf, at least they don’t seems to be quite crazy enough to plan a land war in Iran.
Yet.

JohnSF says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 17:51

@dazedandconfused:
Could be just display to force concession.
Which may depend on exactly what the message conveyed at Geneva about US demands were.
Oddly enough, that’s not clear at all.
But imho there’s way too much firepower being concentrated for this not be deadly serious.

What could and would Iran offer to buy off Trump?
And what would Trump accept as making him look like “a winner”?
The problem is, things like this often develop a momentum of their own.

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 18:19

@JohnSF:

Assuuming they have anything resembling a coherent plan

I think there’s enough institutional knowledge and practice in the Pentagon to ensure some kind of rational, workable plan for a range of attacks on Iran.

In the early Tom Clancy books, Jack Ryan notes divining the Soviets’ intentions was particularly hard, because all too often the Soviets themselves ha no idea what they intended to do. Neither does El Taco.

So, how much use are war plans when the taco making the decisions changes what passes for his mind on an hourly basis. he’s as likely to unleash a devastating attack on Iran, as he is to be exchanging love letters with the top ayatollah.

Even without a land war, toppling the government could cause years of civil war as various factions fight for power, not to mention foreign actors who’d meddle. One thinks the Gulf monarchies would want to control the scary neighbor to the north.

Scott says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 18:24

@JohnSF: @dazedandconfused: I will be watching the underlying reaction of the working class MAGA crowd to any serious action in Iran. After all, Trump got votes in response to the 20-30 years of adventures and deaths in Iraq/Afghanistan. The Iran adventure seems to be directly contradicting those instincts.

charontwo says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 18:53

“Dropsite”

Some excerpts, very long piece:

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.

The extraordinary and expensive U.S. military buildup would be sufficient for a large-scale campaign against Tehran that goes far beyond the limited strikes that have taken place in the past. “It harkens back to what I saw ahead of the 2003 Iraq war,” said retired Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at Defense Priorities, in an interview with Drop Site News. “You don’t assemble this kind of power to send a message. In my view, this is what you do when you’re preparing to use it. What I see on the diplomatic front is just to try to keep things rolling until it’s time to actually launch the military operation. I think that everybody on both sides knows where this is heading.”

…

In a speech on Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei struck a defiant tone and denounced the Trump administration’s approach to nuclear talks, charging that an ultimatum is not a negotiation. “The Americans say, ‘Let’s negotiate over your nuclear energy, and the result of the negotiation is supposed to be that you do not have this energy,” Khamenei said. “If that’s the case, there is no room for negotiation; but if negotiations are truly to take place, determining the outcome of the negotiations in advance is a wrong and foolish act.”

Acknowledging the “beautiful armada” Trump has boasted of sending to the region, Khamenei said, “The Americans constantly say that they’ve sent a warship toward Iran. Of course, a warship is a dangerous piece of military hardware. However, more dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send that warship to the bottom of the sea.” He added, “The U.S. President has said that for 47 years, the United States hasn’t been able to eliminate the Islamic Republic. That is a good confession. I say, ‘You, too, will not be able to do this.’”

The Israeli military has also indicated it is making preparations for potential war with Iran. After meeting with Trump in Washington, D.C. last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put out his own list of priorities, which included ending both Iran’s enrichment program and addressing its ballistic missile capabilities. “[President Trump] is determined to exhaust the possibilities of achieving a deal which he believes can be achieved now because of the circumstances that have been created, the force projection,” Netanyahu said at a conference of presidents of major American Jewish organizations. “And the fact that, as he says, Iran must surely understand that they missed out last time, and he thinks there is a serious probability that they won’t miss out this time. I will not hide from you that I express my skepticism of any deal with Iran.”

…

“The best way I could characterize it is this is a detachment from reality,” Davis said of conversations he has had recently with current U.S. defense officials. He said some of them have spoken of an administration searching for a successful operation like the recent snatching of Maduro in Venezuela or the 2011 overthrow of Moamar Qaddafi in Libya, giving Trump the appearance of a quick regime change victory. “We’ve got a plan A, which is the Libya model—maybe even more than the Venezuela model—that the people will rise up and do on the ground what we don’t have ground troops for,” he said. “Therein is your problem. If plan A doesn’t work, we don’t have a ground force. The chances of having a regime decapitation—even with this massive amount of firepower, and it is massive, no question about that—I think you’re going to be surprised and disappointed. Then what are you going to do next?”

…

In previous cases where Israel and the U.S. have bombed Iran over the past two years, Iran has retaliated with strikes calibrated to avoid killing American military personnel and Israeli civilians and engaged in pre-strike choreography with the U.S. through back channels. The strategy was aimed at Iran being able to respond without dramatically escalating the situation into a larger-scale war. Since early January, Iranian officials have warned they will no longer operate under those informal rules of engagement and intend to inflict real damage in any future strikes. Davis, the retired Army officer, said he believes the U.S. is underestimating Iran’s missile capacity.

“I’ve heard this from people who have access deep inside the Pentagon at the highest levels that there are those who say, ‘I think we can handle Iran’s military, their missile strikes now. I think that we can defend adequately,’” said Davis. “I don’t think we can. I think that Iran demonstrated in the 12 Day War that they could penetrate the absolute best integrated air defense systems that we have. I think it’s a bad gamble—not even a bet, but I think it’s a gamble—to say, ‘I think we can sustain this and still knock them out and get their offensive missiles before they have a chance to shoot us.’

And the Israelis:

“Oren”

A thought of mine: Trump and Hegseth seem to enjoy violence as entertainment, and I think they both get off on hurting or killing people.

ETA: The gulf arabs and Saudis would need to be making their airspace available for this to happen, which implies they think Iran attempts at retaliation against them would not succeed.

Oil stocks and oil related stocks had big gains today.

Big Taco is watching you.

dazedandconfused says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 19:18

@charontwo:

He might be right for all I know, but Daniel Davis has no record of being in military intelligence, that think-tank is a Ron Paul org, and Davis has a youtube channel which features crackpots like Larry Johnson. He tries to do his own thinking which is commendable, but I wouldn’t put a lot of bank on what he says. Not an “insider”.

dazedandconfused says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 19:42

@JohnSF: But in the matter of trying to intimidate someone can there such a thing as a display of too much power?

Kathy says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 19:58

Seriously, how long are you going to put up with this shit?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drop_Site_News

charontwo says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:00

@dazedandconfused:

References? (Ron Paul, etc.)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_L._Davis

dazedandconfused says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:24

@charontwo: Defense Priorities is the think tank I was referring to. Strong links between them and Ron. NTTAWWT, libertarians have some good thoughts, but like most ideologies their takes tend to be skewed and tunnel-visioned.

I wandered in to Davis’s youtube channel in a matter involving the war in Ukraine a few months back. Haven’t bothered to do so again. Not that what the guy thought was all wrong, I merely deemed it shallow.

gVOR10 says:

Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:30

@JohnSF:

The calculation might be that sufficient regime degradation can produce a revolt/civil war

The last Iranian revolution worked out so well for us.

Under Obama a lot of people here and abroad worked out a deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear development. An agreement Trump 1.0 just walked away from. All those people must be banging their heads on their desks right now.