Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. Scott says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 07:21

   Dumbasses run our rural counties:

   Eastland County Republicans scramble as hand-count of primary ballots looms

   Eastland County Republicans voted last fall to ditch electronic voting equipment and instead hand-count all of their primary ballots. They’ll be using paper poll books to check in voters, and expect voters to hand-mark their choices on paper ballots rather than using a ballot-marking device. And instead of having a joint primary with the Democrats, as they’ve done for years, Republicans have chosen to split everything: staff, equipment and materials. Democrats in the county are still planning to use the electronic voting equipment to cast and to tabulate their ballots.

   They are practicing:

   On Monday, a group of four people spent more than an hour at a table inside a Realtor’s office, hand-counting the results of two races on 100 sample ballots. It was only a week before Tuesday’s primary election, and for this small group, it was their first time practicing to tally votes by hand.

   They counted in batches of 25 and used different colored markers to keep track of where one counted batch ended and a new one began. They also used laminated tally sheets, which allowed them to erase and remark them if they made any errors. The group twice marked a vote for the wrong candidate, an error that meant they had to go back and start over and correct their laminated sheets.

   But on Election Day, “you won’t be able to erase the errors on the sheet. That’s why we practice,” said Robin Hayes, the county’s GOP chair, who was training the group.
   …
   After the group finished, Hayes reminded them that on Election Day, when there will be at least 41 races on the Republican primary ballot, they’ll have to minimize the chatter and focus on counting. “This was only two races. Remember that there’s more,” Hayes said.

   All this has happened before. All this will happen again.

   The only two counties planning to hand-count this year are Eastland and Gillespie. In 2024, Gillespie Republicans hand-counted more than 8,000 ballots. That endeavour took nearly 24 hours and led to errors in tallies that officials later had to fix. Gillespie Republicans this month scaled back their plans and said they will only hand-count ballots cast on Election Day because, officials said, they weren’t able to recruit enough workers to count ballots cast during early voting, which ends Friday.

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2. Kathy says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 07:38

   @Scott:

   I guess it’s hard to work by gas lamps, and the constant dipping of quill in the ink well can be time consuming.

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3. Scott says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 07:54

   A long read.

   The Massive Questions Surrounding A Major American Air War Against Iran

   So, here we are, once again. The United States has flooded the Middle East with combat capabilities. A massive investment has already been made in airframe hours, manpower, and naval resources in preparation for what could be the biggest initial military action America has taken in more than 20 years. Such an operation is not without absolutely massive risks. Iran has prepared for this day for many decades, and so many questions remain outstanding. Glaring ones. Ones that impact the globe and especially those tasked with fighting what could very well be a bloody war that has, at least at this time, highly opaque goals.

   Let’s talk about those questions.

   What is the goal?

   This is the biggest unknown. What are we getting into here? Aside from the possibility that this is a giant feint — a hammer and anvil tactic to force a diplomatic outcome — there have to be clear military goals. Would an air campaign be focused on destroying Iran’s nuclear program alone? There are limitations to achieving that goal with airpower. Israel, too, is well aware of this. Is this goal to be paired with absolutely neutering Iran’s military-industrial base, along with its existing combat capabilities? That would seem more likely, but doing so would require a much larger, sustained operation.

   There have also been reports that the White House is eyeing a limited operation in order to force Iran to make a deal. This seems wildly reckless both on a military and diplomatic level, and I doubt these reports are true. The Pentagon would never recommend this. It would ruin any element of surprise and the cumulative impact of using everything at its disposal to shock, blind, and deafen Iran’s command and control. It would also likely result in Iran counter-attacking, which sets off a chain of events that will be hard to pull back from.

   Then there is regime change. That term comes with immense baggage for obvious and totally relevant reasons. Even if this goal is achieved — the collapse of the current regime — mainly through strikes, what comes next? Is there a plan in place for who will succeed Khamenei, and what would that group’s own goals be? How would they seize power when the power vacuum appears? Or will decapitating the regime throw Iran into civil war or even worse, a country controlled by the fanatical IRGC, which, on paper, would seem to be a prime candidate with the might and infrastructure to assume control.
   …
   And once again, obtaining this level of transformation largely via airpower is a highly questionable proposition, at best. There is absolutely no appetite domestically to engage in another ground war in the Middle East, so that option is a non-starter, which is a good thing, as America’s track record in this regard is terrible.

   That’s just the first question.

   Why do I think this administration has not thought beyond just the basics? Because there are no adults in the room anymore. Rubio? Hegseth? Give me a break!

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4. charontwo says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 08:56

   @Scott:

   Why do I think this administration has not thought beyond just the basics? Because there are no adults in the room anymore. Rubio? Hegseth? Give me a break!

   Our lead negotiators are Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both real estate guys with no training whatsoever in diplomacy.

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5. charontwo says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 09:18

   Some historical perspective on Trump’s bullying behaviour:

   “Arc Digital”

   excerpts:

   U.S. officials have held talks with Iranian representatives, but they’ve gone nowhere, surprising the White House. The New York Times reports, “as American warships and fighter jets mass off its shores, Iran has refused to concede to President Trump’s demands on its nuclear program and weapons — a stance that has bewildered U.S. officials.” Trump envoy Steve Witkoff expressed a similar confusion: Trump is “curious as to why they haven’t… I don’t want to use the word ‘capitulated,’ but why they haven’t capitulated.”

   This confusion is unsurprising from people who approach the world as narcissistic, risk-averse bullies.

   Trump and Co. seem genuinely surprised when the smaller side doesn’t give in to threats, even though it keeps happening. He recently declared that America would own Greenland, proceeding as if Denmark would hand it over since the U.S. is more powerful. They refused, Trump made more threats, but Denmark and allies deployed troops as a signal of commitment, and Trump backed down. At least for now.

   …

   Trump has shown a willingness to use force—including without proper Congressional authorization, against U.S. and international law—but only when it’s short, low risk, with little-to-no follow through.

   He bombed Iranian nuclear sites for a few days last year, but only after Israel had been bombing for a week, taking down Iranian air defenses. Then Trump lied that Iran’s nuclear program was “completely and fully obliterated.”

   He’s bombed small boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, shooting at people who can’t shoot back. That’s killed at least 148 people, none of whom posed a national security threat, and hasn’t reduced drug trafficking either.

   By contrast, the Houthis shot back, and Trump backed down. The Yemen-based, Iran-backed group fired on international shipping in the Red Sea and shot rockets into Israel, claiming solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war. Promising to stop it with force, Trump began bombing Yemen in March 2025, declaring that he’d hold Iran responsible for “every shot fired by the Houthis” and they’d face “dire” consequences. The U.S. dropped about $1 billion worth of bombs on Yemen, damaging some targets, killing some people, and losing two fighter jets—which fell into the sea in separate incidents, possibly from their carrier turning quickly to avoid Houthi fire—but failed to end Houthi attacks.

   Then in early May, Trump stopped the strikes, claiming he forced the Houthis to make a deal. The group kept attacking Israel, and two months later fired on Red Sea shipping again. In response, Trump did nothing, acting as if it didn’t happen.

   …

   This is a failure of Trump’s own making. The U.S. had a deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump scrapped it in 2018, letting Iran out of restrictions in exchange for nothing while promising that “maximum pressure” would get Iran to accept a “better deal.” It didn’t work, and Iran ramped uranium enrichment back up. Iranian officials who argued that the U.S. can’t be trusted got a big “told you so.”

   That makes it even harder for Tehran to make a deal, since they cannot trust that American pressure will ease in response. They saw Trump back down from confronting the Houthis, but respond like a stereotypical bully to domestic and international institutions that give in, treating concessions as a sign of a soft target and demanding more.

   Iran won’t capitulate under threat, forfeiting major national interests because Trump told them to. His track record suggests he doesn’t have the stomach or strategic foresight for protracted conflict, and will back down if things get difficult, which makes Iranian leaders think they can weather an assault. And they have strong domestic political incentives to resist, fearing that weakness against foreign pressure could fracture the regime or encourage domestic opponents.

   That leaves the U.S. choosing between another round of limited bombing that accomplishes little, a bigger campaign to collapse the regime with no apparent plan for what comes after, backing down in embarrassing fashion, or an empty “deal” Trump can lie about that, at best, kicks the can down the road and makes the problem even harder to solve.

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6. charontwo says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 09:32

   “NYT gift link”

   Iran, however, has said it will never totally give up nuclear enrichment. “Our fundamental convictions are crystal clear: Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon; neither will we Iranians ever forgo our right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people,” said the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in a social media post.

   Iran is expected to offer a proposal designed to maintain some level of enrichment while also allowing Mr. Trump to declare victory. Four Iranian officials who were not authorized to speak publicly said Iran would offer a suspension of nuclear activity and the enrichment of uranium for three to five years. After that, the country would join a regional nuclear consortium while maintaining a very low level of enrichment, 1.5 percent, for medical research.

   It would also offer to dilute the 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium it still maintains in phases, while allowing access to inspectors from the United Nations atomic agency to oversee all steps and monitor compliance.

   …

   In the talks, Iran must convince Americans that it has no intention to weaponize its nuclear program and also give Mr. Trump enough leeway to claim he achieved more than his predecessors ever did in dealing with Iran. The U.S., in turn, has to incentivize Iran with some tangible rewards, like lifting both the threat of war and economic sanctions on Iran’s international banking and oil sales that have contributed to the near collapse of its economy.

   Iranian officials have also said publicly that their proposal to the United States will include a pledge to buy American goods, such as passenger airplanes, and an invitation to American companies to invest in Iran’s energy, oil and gas industries and gain access to mines with minerals like lithium. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had banned American companies from entering Iran in the first deal but has now granted permission, Iranian officials said.

   “A large economic cooperation between Iran and the U.S. could function as a catalyst for building trust,” said Hossein Mousavian, a former senior diplomat and spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiating team in 2015, in an interview.

   Iran’s missile program, specifically the range of its ballistic missiles, which at 2,000 kilometers can reach Israel and all the U.S. bases in the region, and its support of militant groups in the region, are not currently on the table.

   “Iran refuses — refuses — to talk about the ballistic missiles, to us or to anyone and that’s a big problem,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday to reporters. He said eventually Iran and the U.S. would need to have conversations beyond the nuclear program.

   Iran seems dug in on not giving up any ballistic missiles – understandably. This might be a real sticking point.

   2
7. Kathy says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 09:32

   @charontwo:

   Larry and Curly and no Moe?

   2
8. Sleeping Dog says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 09:37

   @charontwo:

   An article I saw the other day made similar points and another, that Iran has an incentive to respond to any US attack, whether limited or major, by launching its own attack on US interests, both in the ME and elsewhere. Basically the argument that if you’re being bullied, punch the the bully in the nose and bloody him.

   3
9. gVOR10 says:
   Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 09:49

   @charontwo: Buried in that story:

   Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had banned American companies from entering Iran in the first deal but has now granted permission, Iranian officials said.

   That’s presumably a reference to the JCPOA of 2015 that a bunch of experts and real diplomats spent a couple years putting together under Obama.

   As with a healthy economy, if Trump wanted a deal to curtail Iranian nuclear development all he had to do was nothing, and refrain from tearing up what his Dem predecessor had done.

   In all the coverage of the current Iran situation I rarely see anyone, even the supposedly liberal MSM, mention the JCPOA.

   5
10. EddieInCA says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 10:24

    Looks like I’m just part of a trend….

    Americans are leaving the USA in record numbers

    Opening paragraph:

    Last year the U.S. experienced something that hasn’t definitively occurred since the Great Depression: More people moved out than moved in. The Trump administration has hailed the exodus—negative net migration—as the fulfillment of its promise to ramp up deportations and restrict new visas. Beneath the stormy optics of that immigration crackdown, however, lies a less-noticed reversal: America’s own citizens are leaving in record numbers, replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe.

    I’ll still work in the USA when it makes sense, but leisure life will be mostly outside the 50 states.

    6
11. becca says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 10:24

    @charontwo: the idea is to protect future Gaza beach resorts and casinos. Can’t have random missiles spoiling the tourism biz.

    1
12. charontwo says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 10:34

    @becca:

    That is kind of a cynical take. Iran has a history of receiving multiple attacks by both Israel and the U.S. Making a red line of not giving up any part of its power to respond makes sense, should not surprise anyone.

    Meanwhile, the bully would dearly love the ability to attack with less risk, so the question is how badly do Netanyahu and Trump want to insist on this.

    1
13. Kathy says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 10:49

    One wonders why the Iranians haven’t set up a Noble Price Foundation, and declared El Taco the recipient of the first 25 Noble Piece Prices (none of the preceding is a typo).

    At best, I figure El Taco might get something like the JCPOA, plus some symbolic concessions like mineral rights nobody wants to exploit, or promises to buy Boeing jets they were eager to get back in 2017.

    2
14. becca says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 10:53

    @charontwo: I don’t think it’s cynical. It’s mafia style business.

    2
15. gVOR10 says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 11:42

    Propinquity. Happened to catch part of “O Brother, Where Art Thou” on cable yesterday. Today Erik Loomis at LGM for “Erik Visits an American Grave” did the grave of the real life Governor Pappy O’Daniel. The man was a prototype for Trump.
16. Beth says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 12:37

    A play, in 4 acts:

    Act 1

    Today, transgender people across Kansas are reporting receiving letters from the Kansas Division of Vehicles stating that they must surrender their driver’s licenses and that their current credentials will be considered invalid upon the law’s publication in the Kansas Register on Thursday. Should any transgender person be caught driving without a valid license, they could face a class B misdemeanor carrying up to six months in jail and a $1,000 fine. Kansas already requires county jails to house inmates according to sex assigned at birth. The letter, obtained by Erin in the Morning, marks one of the most significant erosions of transgender civil rights in the United States to date.

    In addition to the driver’s license provisions, the law bans transgender people from using bathrooms matching their gender identity in public buildings and creates a bathroom bounty hunter system allowing citizens to sue transgender people they encounter in restrooms for at least $1,000 in damages, including potentially in private restrooms. The bill takes effect immediately upon publication in the Kansas Register rather than the standard July 1 effective date—giving transgender Kansans just days between the override and the invalidation of their identity documents.

    Erin in the Morning

    Act 2

    An alarming emergency motion filed on Wednesday night alleged “flagrant violations” by the Trump administration of a federal court order that it not retaliate against witnesses who are providing information to the court in a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s anti-trans prison policies.

    The filing in federal court in D.C. came less than a week after Lamberth, a Reagan appointee, issued an order on February 19 barring any further retaliation against inmates for their participation in the case.

    Three days later, however, Pinson alleged that a lieutenant at the facility where she is housed referred to as Lt. Teague told her, “I don’t give a fuck what that judge says, I do what I want.”

    She then went on to detail the invasive visual cavity search that she says she was subjected to on February 22 by male guards.

    Then, she recounted the lawless statement that she claims Teague made to her:

    “If you want to make it home alive, you need to stop sending stuff to that fucking judge, or you’re not going to make it,” she says Teague told her.

    Click in to read the horror show she is being subjected to including a complete and immediate withdrawal of her medication.

    Law Dork

    Act 3

    7. Preparation: I believe this is the latest stage of genocide we are on, however, it is creeping up to stage 8. Lists of trans people are being created in some states, like texas [or Kansas] for example. V-coding is a thing that has been allowed to exist and nothing has been done about it. For trans people in a prison of inmates that are not their gender, v-coding can make a prison sentence into a death sentence. I find explaining V-coding to be upsetting, so if you are reading this and don’t know what it is, look it up. Also, prisons in lots of states will straight up deny trans people their HRT medication, which is neglecting their necessary medical care. Also, post-op(bottom surgery) trans people could have serious medical complications with their body if they can’t have access to their hormones. They want us to die. The cruelty is the point. And, the government could make up a law that would create a “crime” that most, if not all trans people may have committed, giving police power to arrest us, allowing us to rot in these prisons and die. This is why I think it’s a red flag when someone says “oh it’s not genocide” because like, gurl, have you been living under a rock?

    Lightly edited from Bluesky

    Act 4

    In the context of incarceration in the United States, V-coding is the common practice of subjecting trans women to sexual assault by placing the woman in the same prison cell as an aggressive male inmate in order to placate the male inmate.[1][2][3] This practice has been known to have caused the daily rapes of multiple women, and the sexual assaults of 58.5% of them.[4][5][6] V-coding is done to pacify the male inmate, with the goal of reducing their propensity for violence against other inmates, according to prison authorities and one inmate.

    The two above articles also reported multiple stories that involved V-coding victims being raped daily, and found that V-coding was common enough to be considered “a central part of a trans woman’s sentence”

    This process was said to be essentially “pimping”, as the prison staff would do nothing if the “wife” inmate resisted being V-coded. In addition, the prison staff would sometimes coerce the V-coded “wife” into furthering their sexual role with their “husband” by offering toiletries or medical favors—e.g. giving a “wife” gloves to be used as a condom.[2] The second edition of the same work wrote that trans women who physically resist rape are often criminally charged with assault and placed in solitary confinement, the assault charge then being used to extend the woman’s prison stay and deny her parole.

    Wikipedia with more citations

    I guess we would have been ok if we had just been more normal.

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17. Beth says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 13:12

    In other fun world news, Kier Starmer is about to get a mudhole stomped in his ass*.

    The polls have opened in the three-way battle for Gorton and Denton in south-east Manchester in one of the most unpredictable byelections in years.

    The Green party leader Zack Polanski said his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK to overturn Labour’s 13,000-vote majority, and that Labour will need to “search their conscience” if Reform UK wins.Keir Starmer’s party has targeted left-leaning voters in the Greater Manchester seat with claims that only Labour can see off Nigel Farage’s Reform, saying that a vote for the Greens was “in effect, a vote for Reform”.

    Labour’s strategy of claiming the Greens cannot win has echoes of the disastrous Caerphilly byelection in October, which the party lost to Plaid Cymru despite telling voters repeatedly: “Only Labour can beat Reform.”

    As of this morning, local time, Labour was polling in 3d.

    Angeliki Stogia, a Labour councillor, was selected as the candidate for Starmer’s party after Andy Burnham was prevented from standing. The academic turned GB News presenter Matt Goodwin – who has faced criticism for his comments on women, Muslims and British citizenship – is standing for Reform UK. Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber by trade, is the Green party candidate.

    Prof Will Jennings, of the University of Southampton, said the contest was too close to call and that in Britain’s new fragmented politics “anything can happen”. He said a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for No 10’s strategy to try to appeal to right-leaning voters in a way that alienates its core progressive supporters.

    “It would be a symbol of the failure of that strategy and the end point for it,” said Jennings. “The worst-case scenario for Labour is coming third behind Reform and the Greens, not least because of the decision to stop Andy Burnham from standing.”

    Whaddayaknow, piss off your base and they won’t vote for you.

    Also, Labour is sooo freaking bad at this.

    Labour is embroiled in a dirty tricks row over a campaign leaflet featuring a “fictitious” tactical voting company.
    The offending literature has been put through voters’ doors on the eve of Thursday’s crunch Gorton and Denton by-election.
    It says: “The Tactical Choice says Vote Labour. Based on a new prediction made in the last 24 hours we are recommending voting Labour.”
    However, no organisation called “Tactical Choice” appears to exist.

    As of this morning, Polanski had a url for that “company” that went to the Green Party website. Freaking Labour was too lazy and stupid to buy a url and vibe code a website.

    Bookies make the Greens odds-on favourites, followed by Reform and then Labour, for whom Andrew Gwynne won the seat at the 2024 general election with a majority of nearly 13,500.

    Two real tactical voting organisations – Tactical.Vote and StopTheTories.Vote – have already recommended voters back the Greens to stop Reform winning.

    A Labour campaign spokesman did not deny that Tactical Choice appear to have been made up by the party in a bid to sway voters.

    JohnSF, do you think Labour will force Starmer out after today’s loss or do you think the Labour Together bozos will shit their pants again and wait until May’s election to force him out?

    For what its worth, as soon as I can figure out my National Insurance number and register to vote, I’m joining the Green Party of England and Wales and voting for them in May.

    *Sing it Stone Cold…
18. charontwo says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 14:12

    @Beth:

    https://mockpaperscissors.com/2026/02/26/wtf-is-it-now-kansas/

    1
19. Beth says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 15:27

    @Beth:

    I’m looking for more reporting on that emergency motion Law Dork was reporting on above.

    He’s apparently at the hearing in DC and the judge is pissed at the DOJ and BOP.
20. JohnSF says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 16:20

    @Beth:
    If a move is made against Starmer, it will probably be after the May local elections.

    Personnaly, I think Jennings is making a fundamental mistake in his analysis, in seeing the “progressives” as the core Labour vote.
    The Labour electoral problem is it has at least three key support groups: progressives/left (itself with internal divides), centre-left, and “Labour by habit” working class.
    The first can be eaten into by the Greens, the second by LibDems, the third by Reform-style populism.

    The last poll I saw puts Greens, Labour and Reform more or less equal on 27% each.

    I’m afraid I could not vote Green, due to their frivolity on defence.
    There are no local election here in May; we’re on the other cycle.
    If there were, I’d vote LibDem.

    I did in our county council by-election in October last year, when the LibDem candidate, Sam Ammar, beat Reform by a substantial amount; Conservatives came third, poor Labour fourth. Greens did not run.

    The incumbent Reform councillor had quit due to illness.
    They had scaped a narrow win in May 2025.
    Reform first, Sam Ammar a close second for Lib Dems, Conservatives third, Labour fourth, Greens fifth.

    Results indicated a lot of Labour and Green votes went LibDem on a “stop Reform” basis.
    Also, Sam Ammar was a good candidate; people tend to like her.

    2
21. dazedandconfused says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 17:09

    Noem fires her Gulfstream 700 pilot for not turning the flight around to retrieve her favorite blanky.

    Apparently it wasn’t her blanky she was worried about, it was a mystery bag of some other personal items, and I’m quite sure her boyfriend quickly discovered how hard it is to find a pilot with a Gulfstream 700 type rating…so they re-hired him on the spot.

    The USCG bought two of these very spendy birds to use as Noem’s private transportation. These people are weird and have no shame.

    2
22. dazedandconfused says:
    Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 17:44

    @Scott:

    They may be only trying to add fuel to a fire. Just guessing, but Iran’s inflation spiral is getting completely out of control.

    “Every nation is just nine missed meals from chaos.” -Somebody

    1