Outside the Beltway

More on Voter Demographics

Steven L. Taylor · Sunday, April 28, 2013 · 2 comments

Via the AP:  Black Voter Turnout Passed White Turnout For The First Time In 2012

The article is actually rather poorly written, to be honest, as it does not provided clear numbers in the body of the discussion (indeed, it reads a bit as if the reporter didn’t quite understand the topic being reported)..  However, the key figures would seem to be the following. 

First, in regards to whites v. non-whites:

The gap between non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black turnout in 2008 was the smallest on record, with voter turnout at 66.1 percent and 65.2 percent, respectively; turnout for Latinos and non-Hispanic Asians trailed at 50 percent and 47 percent. Rough calculations suggest that in 2012, 2 million to 5 million fewer whites voted compared with 2008, even though the pool of eligible white voters had increased.

Second, in regards to blacks v. whites:

Unlike other minority groups, the rise in voting for the slow-growing black population is due to higher turnout. While blacks make up 12 percent of the share of eligible voters, they represented 13 percent of total 2012 votes cast, according to exit polling. That was a repeat of 2008, when blacks "outperformed" their eligible voter share for the first time on record.

This is interesting for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being that blacks have traditionally had lower turn-out rates than whites.

Of course, all this points to the fact that if the Republican Party continues to appeal to older whites as its main base that it is going to be increasingly be in serious electoral trouble.