Revisiting The List One Year In
Back in November, right after the election, I made a list of concerns I had going into the second Trump administration. I updated the assessment in July. As we begin year two, here is where we stand.
| The Original List (11/6/24) | 1/21/26 Assessments |
| 1. He initiates some version of his Schedule F proposal to transform much of the civil service into partisan positions. | While he never initiated the Schedule F proposal, he allowed DOGE to do substantial damage to the federal government in, at best, legally dubious ways, but often in ways that clearly ignored Congressional appropriations and legally created and empowered entities. There has been profound damage to governing capacity as a result of these actions. Links of note: *The Partnership for Public Service: The Cost to Your Government. *Via Politico: Trump administration concedes DOGE team may have misused Social Security data. |
| 2. He orders the DOJ to cease all investigations into his behavior. | Yes. Further, lawyers and law enforcement who were linked to the investigations were fired. |
| 3. He sells out Ukraine to Russia. | The administration continues to offer terms that are sympathetic to Moscow. Given the National Security Strategy that was published and the current posture of the administration about regional spheres of influence, not to mention the ongoing betrayal of NATO, the long-term outlook likely signals bad news for Ukraine over the coming year. |
| 4. He allows, indeed encourages, Israel to act with impunity in the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon. | The issue now is how his “Board of Peace” (can we get more Orwellian?) tried to deal with Gaza. This one is difficult to fully assess, if anything, because it has fallen out of the news given the torrent of other issues. The human tragedy of it all continues, however. |
| 5. He raises tariffs in a significant way and causes substantial inflation as a result. | Damage continues to be done on this front, with tariff threats over Greenland being the new issue. The main question here is, will SCOTUS allow him to continue, despite the plain language in the Constitution? I will note that while inflation has not spiked, it is also not coming down. |
| 6. He appoints utterly unqualified persons to his cabinet. | This has fully come to pass, and he has proven less willing to toss people overboard, despite the obvious need to do so (see, e.g., Hegseth). RFK, Jr. is doing irreparable harm to basic confidence in public health. Noem and a coterie of DHS appointees are unleashing violence on American streets. We are getting results like the following from NPR: The EPA is changing how it considers the costs and benefits of air pollution rules. And if you haven’t seen the Secretary of Agriculture tell us about how cheaply we can eat these days, have a gander. |
| 7. Along the lines of #6, he really does empower people like Elon Musk and RFK, Jr. | 100%. Musk was given, for a time, far more power than I thought likely. RFK., Jr. is HHS Secretary and is wreaking havoc on public health policy. |
| 8. He uses the DOJ to go after his enemies and eliminates the norm of DOJ independence. | This has been ongoing. Thus far, the incompetence of the administration has stopped it from being especially effective. Protect Democracy has a list. |
| 9. He allows things like child separation at the border. | Worse in some ways. Deporting US citizens instead. |
| 10. He engages in deportations that catch up and victimize American citizens. This will manifest as breaking up families and will include Americans being deported. And, of course, victimized immigrants. | This is an area that has clearly gotten far worse. American citizens are being detained, and Rene Good was murdered by ICE. Via ProPublica back in October: We Found That More Than 170 U.S. Citizens Have Been Held by Immigration Agents. They’ve Been Kicked, Dragged and Detained for Days. |
| 11. He encourages violence by law enforcement. | In July, I noted masked ICE agents, deportation to CECOT, and Alligator Alcatraz. But this is an area that has gotten far worse. The usage of ICE as a paramilitary force used to terrorize immigrants, both documented and undocumented, plus citizens have markedly increased. We see them acting with impunity and being told from on high that they have immunity. |
| 12. Attacks on the media via the FCC. | We have seen not only the usage of lawsuits, or threats of lawsuits, but also an attempt by the FCC to get Jimmy Kimmel fired, and there is clear interference with the process of buying and selling media companies. It is a credible inference that Stephen Colbert’s show was cancelled as part of that manipulation. A recent example via The Hill: Trump: New ‘CBS Evening News’ anchor ‘probably wouldn’t have a job’ if Harris won. The Pentagon press corps was basically kicked out of the building because of an insistence that they essentially function as stenographers for the DoD. See NPR: The press corps at the Defense Department has been replaced by far-right outlets. |
| 13. Damage to the dollar as the global reserve currency. | Via JP Morgan in July: De-dollarization: The end of dollar dominance? Via ISS: The future of dollar dominance. Via Reuters today: US policy factors ‘critical’ to extent of de-dollarisation shift, Morgan Stanley says. |
| 14. Deeper alliances with autocratic governments. | This general trend continues. |
| 15. He abandons the US role as a global leader of liberal democracy. This ends an important element of the post-WWII order. | This has accelerated since July. Again, the National Security Strategy makes this clear. See also, via NBC News: Trump’s ‘Board of Peace,’ which could upend world order, faces pushback from allies. |
| 16. Repeal of the ACA. | The BBB Act cut Medicaid and hospital funding, and there was no extension of ACA subsidies, despite a lengthy government shutdown. The only alternative floated by the administration has been untenable health savings account proposals. |
| 17. Some new version of the Muslim ban. | Via te CFR: A Guide to the Countries on Trump’s Travel Ban List. |
| 18. J6 and related pardons. | This was worse than expected: he pardoned/commuted the sentences of all the J6ers. |
| 19. Takes the US out of NATO. | In November of 2024, I thought he might try some dubiously legal means of getting us out of NATO. And then in the first 6 months or so of the administration, Europe did such a good job of flattering him, I thought we might avoid a rupture. But as of today, there is a rupture underway. We may not be formally out of NATO, but the Greenland obsession, coupled with the way Trump and his cronies are talking about the world, signals that an informal decoupling is already happening. My in-the-moment assessment is that so much damage has been done that the post-WWII order, and the role NATO played in it as a key US partner, is over. As such, he has taken us out of NATO, just not formally as yet. |
As a general matter, he is moving the US in a decidedly illiberal direction and is foolishly abandoning key sources of international power in the name of some simpleton’s notion of imperial strength.
He continues to govern like an autocrat, and the Republican Party is letting him, as has SCOTUS.
He is empowering racists, xenophobes, and White nationalists.
I would further note the long list of things he and his allies are doing right in front of our noses and the ways in which he and his administration have reminded me of regimes like the one in North Korea.
I need to create a more systematic addition to this list of things I did not anticipate and of the general damage that has been done. Further, I hope to do a more systematic examination of the ways in which this administration has clearly behaved fascistically.
One of the grand ironies of all of this is that the alleged goal was to Make American Great Again, and yet he and his allies do not understand or acknowledge that they came to power at a moment in which America was great and globally powerful, and they are just pissing it all away.
For example, being the regional hegemon in the Western Hemisphere while ceding similar roles to Russia and China in their geographical sphere is less powerful than being a global hegemon (albeit one that has constraints and has to cooperate with others at times). The ways in which they have made America less powerful, less important, and less dominant are staggering.
But, of course, at the core of all of this is some bizarre and unhealthy coalition of greed and racism. People like Trump, Luttnik, and Bessent are making even more money, as are their friends and allies. What do they care about responsible governance or stewardship of America? They don’t care if the long-term damage diminishes us all when they can make a few more bucks!
And the racists like Miller (and Trump) don’t care if the overall result of all of their policies is diminished government capacity and economic damage to the country. No! If we can emmiserate some Somalis and punish refugees from coming to the US, and so forth, then it won’t matter if the government functions poorly and Whites have to pay more for groceries. If they can make some brown people suffer and increase the “purity” of the homeland, then the price will have been worth it to them.
The degree to which a huge chunk of America has chosen self-immolation is staggering to behold.
And we have three more years of this term yet to come…
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I don’t think there’s any question but what he finds the idea of Donald, First of His Name, Emperor of the Americas more attractive than any position where he has to accommodate others. He’ll settle for Central and South American countries as vassal states. Whether he’ll settle for Canada as a vassal or insist on incorporation into the US is open for debate.
The Emperor vs President thing isn’t new or unique to Trump. Long ago Lee Iacocci was being interviewed after he had turned Chrysler around. The reporter asked if Lee was interested in running for President. After a pause, the response was, “No, I’d go crazy having to deal with Congress and courts and treaties and all that. But talk to me again if an opening for Emperor comes up.”
Economically Trump’s a mercantilist at heart. The vassal states buy finished goods from the US and sell raw materials. There was a scary part of Carney’s speech at Davos where he made a priority of pouring a trillion dollars into further tar sands development.
And by FEC, you mean FCC.
@Joe: Correct. Thanks for the note.
The degree to which a still bigger hunk of America is powerless to put out the fire is even more staggering.