Outside the Beltway

The List

My concerns about a second Trump administration.

Steven L. Taylor
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So, what are my concerns about a second Trump administration? Here’s a list off the top of my head to put down a marker for future discussion, in no particular order.

  1. He initiates some version of his Schedule F proposal to transform much of the civil service into partisan positions.
  2. He orders the DOJ to cease all investigations into his behavior.
  3. He sells out Ukraine to Russia.
  4. He allows, indeed encourages, Israel to act with impunity in the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon.
  5. He raises tariffs in a significant way and causes substantial inflation as a result.
  6. He appoints utterly unqualified persons to his cabinet.
  7. Along the lines of #6, he really does empower people like Elon Musk and RFK, Jr.
  8. He uses the DOJ to go after his enemies and eliminates the norm of DOJ independence.
  9. He allows things like child separation at the border.
  10. He engages in deportations that catch up and victimizes American citizens. This will manifest as breaking up families and will include Americans being deported. And, of course, victimized immigrants.
  11. He encourages violence by law enforcement.
  12. Attacks on the media via the FEC.
  13. Damage to the dollar as the global reserve currency.
  14. Deeper alliances with autocratic governments.
  15. He abandons the US role as a global leader of liberal democracy. This ends an important element of the post-WWII order.
  16. Repeal of the ACA.
  17. Some new version of the Muslim ban.
  18. J6 and related pardons.
  19. Takes the US out of NATO.

The long-haul damage includes a diminishment of US global power because the US is not a leader of the liberal democratic world.

General concerns include the safety of trans citizens and the general empowerment of white nationalists.

What am I missing?

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32 responses to “The List”

  1. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    19. Rules that make gender affirming care difficult to access or straight up illegal, with a goal of forcibly detransitioning trans people.

    9
  2. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    Massive tax cuts at the same time as sizable promised increases in several areas of spending.
    This is likely to provoke inflation, leading to an interest hike and thus to recession.
    And/or a crisis of confrontation between the White House and the Fed.

    Also a non-zero, and steadily rising, probability of an eventual bond market revolt, and subsequent fiscal emergency.
    Something the US has generally not had to worry about overly much since WW2.

    7
  3. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    The end of free elections.

    A Trumpist SCOTUS majority that will roll back civil rights.

    8
  4. ptfe Avatar
    ptfe

    16 won’t happen – the ACA is the current status quo. At most he’ll twiddle around the edges to make it less affordable, but his Republican colleagues do not have and have never had a replacement.

    He’s still an incompetent buffoon at heart, but the people around him are His People. He’s going to lean into that and let them go wild.

    1
  5. Jc Avatar
    Jc

    Good list. I feel he only cares about himself and ignores the world stage. Appointing unqualified people, more wealthy tax breaks, ignoring Ukraine/Israel and anything global (other than tariffs). It’s the other people in power and what they put in front of him that will be key. GOP will have to govern and have not done that very well in years. Gonna be a show for sure.

    1
  6. Not the IT Dept. Avatar
    Not the IT Dept.

    I need to get to bed but I am going to respond to #3 – if Biden doesn’t throw everything in the Department of Defense warehouse to Ukraine before January, that country will not exist by February.

    And the bomb threats during the day from Russia would not have happened if Trump hadn’t okayed it in advance. There is no way such a crass, primitive stunt would have been perpetrated with no care taken to hide the source if they didn’t know they’d have Trump’s approval. This is how Russia really sees us now – we are p*ssy nation, an international joke.

    Off to bed.

    9
  7. Tony W Avatar
    Tony W

    @ptfe: The oligarchs who paid for all this HATE the ACA because it empowers employees instead of corporations.

    In retrospect, however, the ACA was brilliant because it preserved the awful system we had with just a few tweaks around the edges, so maybe that’s why it has lasted so long.

    If it is repealed, I’m screwed. I’ll probably have to go back to work for coverage after years of retirement.

    2
  8. ptfe Avatar
    ptfe

    @Tony W: Yeah, at this point I don’t think it can be removed without screwing up the income of a lot of insurance execs. They want near-universal market participation. Premiums are already high, and I suspect health insurers would have trouble matching premiums with demand/ability to pay if there were no participation requirements.

    Democrats screwed up by building that house of cards in the first place. We could have had universal health care, instead we got the half-assed “filibuster-friendly!” version that suits insurers just fine.

    1
  9. Barry Avatar
    Barry

    @JohnSF: “Massive tax cuts at the same time as sizable promised increases in several areas of spending.”

    Those tax cuts will be for the rich.

    2
  10. Barry Avatar
    Barry

    @ptfe: “16 won’t happen – the ACA is the current status quo. At most he’ll twiddle around the edges to make it less affordable, but his Republican colleagues do not have and have never had a replacement.”

    They do. ‘Die, and die quickly’.

    3
  11. Barry Avatar
    Barry

    @ptfe: “Democrats screwed up by building that house of cards in the first place. We could have had universal health care, instead we got the half-assed “filibuster-friendly!” version that suits insurers just fine.”

    Lie.

  12. Joe Avatar
    Joe

    As a subset of #10, I fear Trump will performatively revoke Hatian temporary asylum status for the purpose of deporting Haitians in Springfield and Charleroi and elsewhere, destroying Hatian lives and American cities in the same fell swoop.

    4
  13. Pylon Avatar
    Pylon

    I think he will exact specific revenge on certain political enemies – the Obamas, Pelosi, Harris, perhaps some impeachment prosecutors- and they will be in actual danger of being arrested.

    2
  14. ptfe Avatar
    ptfe

    @Barry: That’s…a position, I guess. How is it a “lie”?

    1
  15. Kurtz Avatar
    Kurtz

    @TheRyGuy:

    This is entirely non-responsive. Please, defend Schedule F. Go ahead and try.

    Shit, pick any one of those potential policies and defend it.

    You contribute nothing.

    Why do I get the feeling that you’re no different in IRL. A net negative. A loser.

    An actual chump.

    A junior one at that, given your inability stay on topic.

    7
  16. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    @Barry:

    Those tax cuts will be for the rich.

    They may favour them; but the campaign promises indicate fairly broad span and a very large fiscal impact.
    The projects for making up the difference with tariffs don’t add up, as they will merely add to the inflation effect, and at levels high enough on current trade to meet the bill, will ensure current trade ends, and the bill remains.

    The trajectory is for boom-and-bust.
    With the bust added to by almost certain countervailing tariffs, and by the trade strangulation effect making it difficult for other countries to purchase from the US.
    1930’s economics: “first as tragedy, then as farce.”

    If the dollar-earning problem becomes large enough, expect the EU to move to try to force the Gulf to trade hydrocarbons with European states in euros.
    Possible knock on effect of forcing the UK to choose a “trade war” side.

    And to add another driver to those making for the possible end of the Atlantic Alliance.

    If the administration indulges the fancies of its leadership, it’s going to place a stack of dynamite under the whole post WW2 US strategic and economic position and light the fuse.

    5
  17. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Kurtz: I deleted the comment. I am not in the mood for the nonresponse and then when it settle into insults, I didn’t even want to try and engage.

    I am weary of all the bad faith.

    Moreover, I am tired of his sneering bullshit.

    6
  18. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @JohnSF:

    If the administration indulges the fancies of its leadership, it’s going to place a stack of dynamite under the whole post WW2 US strategic and economic position and light the fuse.

    It is a frighteningly real possibility.

    I feel like we are approaching the final scene of “Planet of the Apes.”

    1
  19. Paul L. Avatar
    Paul L.

    Trump orders the DOJ to release all classified documents about Crossfire Hurricane, ATF Fast and Furious and IRS targeting of tea party groups undermining National Security.

    Please, defend Schedule F. Go ahead and try.

    Ted Stevens prosecutors are still employed by the DOJ.
    DEA agents who abandoned Daniel Chong in the cell are still employed.

    1
  20. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @ptfe: Part of me thinks that way, but if the GOP wins the House, I expect it will repeat the ACA. The question then becomes if the Reps in the Senate will dismantle the filibuster to follow suit.

    I think it is a real possibility.

    1
  21. Paul L. Avatar
    Paul L.

    Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act and repeal of the National Firearms act will jeopardize officer safety and promote gun violence.

  22. Flat Earth Luddite Avatar
    Flat Earth Luddite

    @JohnSF:
    @JohnSF:
    @Paul L.:

    Oh dear Dawg, I really don’t want to live in 1930s redux. Heard enough horror stories from people who lived through the first one.

    Seriously, while I always expected the Republic to fall, I never really expected it to happen in my lifetime. Looks like I get to see it happen first hand.

    Unfortunately, as a convicted felon, I can’t get a visa to enter most countries SWMBO and I would want to live in.

    4
  23. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    If the dollar-earning problem becomes large enough, expect the EU to move to try to force the Gulf to trade hydrocarbons with European states in euros.

    And in all likelihood succeeding.

    3
  24. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @Flat Earth Luddite: SWMBO has foreign countries she would emigrate to? I did not see that coming.

  25. Michael Reynolds Avatar
    Michael Reynolds

    This is the end of international efforts to deal with climate change. The worst case scenario is now the only scenario. The US is finished as a leader, as the global superpower.

    Russia will take Ukraine and will go after the Baltics as soon as it can rebuild its forces. Poland, France and Germany need to get real damn serious, real damn soon.

    This is the perfect time for China to go after Taiwan. Trump will never fight – not for Europe, not for Taiwan, not for South Korea. He will abandon all our allies, including Israel if they get in any real trouble.

    And real trouble for Israel is on the horizon. When NATO falls apart Turkey will lose its last restraint. Unless Israel finds a way to be useful to Turkey, Erdogan is in a position to make Israel a vassal state. He has a navy, and Israel imports basically everything. Of course Turkey’s first moves will be against the Kurds who will have no US support. And then, there’s Greece.

    Four years from now it is likely that Taiwan will belong to China and they will own chip manufacturing. Also likely, NATO will be broken and the Baltics will be Russian. The parts of Asia that have begun to stand up to China will move to mollify China. Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines. Japan will have no choice but to start building a nuclear arsenal, and quickly. Turkey will likely also go nuclear, as will Iran. And once the KSA realizes the US military no longer exists to all intents and purposes, it will also go nuclear.

    One other things for The List: There will be no disaster relief in Blue states. If California has a big quake, it will be on its own.

    4
  26. Erik Avatar
    Erik

    #next: loss of intelligence to Russia, China, whoever pays for it. If I was a foreign service officer I would be resigning. It just wouldn’t be safe. If I was a friendly foreign intelligence agency I would be cutting off flow of all but the most basic intelligence to the US. We are not a reliable partner anymore

    3
  27. becca Avatar
    becca

    @just nutha: now we get to know a world that gives the side-eye to the American dollar as reserve currency. I know it has already lost its shine, but one could hope then.

  28. a country lawyer Avatar
    a country lawyer

    Sam Alito will probably retire, Thomas may also, and we’ll be stuck with a couple of 40 year old Leonard Leo hatchlings on the Supreme Court for the next three or four decades.

    2
  29. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Greece is nightmare terrain for war. But there’s Cyprus.

    Mad Vlad will likely move on Moldova first. He doesn’t need to invade, just threaten them into vassal status. I don’t know how easy or hard an invasion would be, but it’s a small country and not in NATO.

    The Baltics are in a better position. Even if NATO dissolves, or more likely devolves into a European alliance (plus maybe Canada), Mad Vlad won’t want to tangle there if their armies are augmented with Polish and French troops and equipment; meaning actual Polish and French boots on the ground. And maybe others Finland and Sweden won’t like Russia to expand on their sea, neither might Norway, Germany and Denmark*.

    I stress the need for France to be involved, because they have a nuclear deterrent. The British nukes are kind of tied with US nukes, as I understand such things.

    Maybe some European countries, including smaller ones like the Baltic republics, may abandon the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and acquire a deterrent of their own. If that happens, Iran will certainly develop nukes (I think they may be nearly ready for that), and we would likely see other countries do so as well. Think the Saudis, Japan, South Korea, and whatever tinpot dictaros crop up under the fuhrer’s neglect of the world.

    *It’s amazing in a historical context how many European countries are on the same side. Given the long, bloody history of the continent, it’s a shame to undo the unifying work done since 1945.

  30. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    I think chances are high there will be a national abortion ban. Either passed by Congress, or some case that makes it to the Leo court.

    I figure the drumpster party may do away with the filibuster, or just run roughshod over the Senate rules as they feel like it. Especially if el fuhrer whines about it.

    Or we may see cases involving states where abortion is allowed, especially red states that passed measures protecting abortion. I can see attempts at restricting abortion access in such states by over regulating providers, mandating nonsense delays (like ultrasounds) that also drive up costs, and in particular family members suing because their wife/girlfriend/daughter/etc. was allowed to have an abortion, or had a medically necessary one due to miscarriage or other complications.

    Then the Leo court says “fetal personhood,” and abortion is banned in all cases. Also women might be prosecuted for a miscarriage, others might be for causing a miscarriage, etc.

    The alternatives will be to have an underground railroad type supply of abortion medications, or travel to Mexico, Canada, or maybe the Caribbean, for those who can afford it or live close enough to the border. The latter can be blocked by prosecuting women who travel abroad for the purpose of having an abortion. The former by removing FDA approval of such medications (which have other uses), or outright making them illegal, as though they were heroin or fentanyl.

    After all, the execrable decision didn’t cost them any votes.

  31. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Poland, France and Germany need to get real damn serious, real damn soon.

    Poland is already very serious: they are currently spending at 4% GDP and plan to to 5% next year.
    Their main problem is the lack of a established defence manufacturing base.
    That takes time to build; there are the basis for such across Sweden, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria, but not integrated.

    France is also fairly serious, but currently crippled by a minority government dealing with a fiscal crisis that it’s far-right and far-ish left groups in parliament won’t address either via tax increases or pensions reform.
    So it’s putting military expansion on “slow” as part of a spending curbs progamme needed to avoid a bond market crisis.

    Germany has a coalition that has devolved into intra-party squabbling, an ineffective Chancellor, and the eternal post-Cold War lure of pacifism and wishful thinking.
    Germany might be persuaded/strong-armed into following a European consensus, but it will never take the lead in forming one based on massive military force increase.
    And getting Germany to follow is required due its industrial/technical base in defence; second only to France, with UK in third place, Italy fourth.

    The persistent problem of Europe, after the failure of the European Defence Community project in the late 1950’s: with no supra-national defence authority, massive amounts of spending get wasted due to duplication of effort, and national politicians preference for local pork.

    And the UK has the problem of being external to the EU, and thus outside common procurement via that route, and with our own serious budget problems.
    Nonetheless, if Starmer has any sense he’ll try to work up an alliance with Poland, and similar talks with Macron, Meloni, and the Visegrad Group in general, behind the scenes.

    Personally I doubt the collapse will be quite as rapid as you fear.
    Institutions like the Pentagon have a lot of inertia, and there are probably sufficient realists in Congress Republicans to at least act as a braking factor.

    Assuming Germany doesn’t make a bolt for the exit, ongoing EU assistance at current level looks sufficient to make Ukraine a tough bit of gristle to chew on.
    They can probably hold current most of the non-Donbas part of what they have for at least a year, which gives time to judge what Trump will actually do rather than say. And so time to get the contingency plans running.

    Personally I’d move faster: personal preference would be for a UK emergency supplemental budget NOW, with 1% on income tax and on VAT, announced as funding an emergency increase in military expenditure by !% of GDP, and for constructing defence manufacturing capacity at a similar 1%.
    Likelihood as of now: low.
    But I suspect there’s quiet contingency planning afoot.
    Problem being, the Treasury will have a fit as soon as it gets serious.

    2
  32. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    @Kathy:
    Greece is nightmare terrain for war.
    And Greece also has a sizable military of its own account: 145k or so.
    Not quite half that of Turkey.
    Cyprus also has the issue of two very large and powerfully armed UK sovereign bases.

    Regarding the Baltics, there are already NATO Battle Groups on the ground.
    They need reinforcing, but they are there, at roughly brigade strength, and do not have US components.
    In Estonia: UK and France.
    In Latvia: Canadian, Polish, Czech, Italian (and one crazy Icelander with an axe)
    In Lithuania: German, Belgian, Dutch.
    In addition, of course, to the Baltic States own forces, which are integrated with the Battle Groups.

    Plus the European NATO Baltic Air Patrol formations that rotate in and out of Lithuania and Estonia. With the Polish and Swedish air forces as back-up.

    All this adds up to the Baltic not being by any means a walkover, even absent US involvement.

    As regards UK nuclear weapons: the “Holbrook” warheads themselves are UK designs, and with British fissionables. Designed to mate to the US Trident MIRV-bus.
    That is necessary to conform to US non-proliferation law.

    There is a warhead-related dependency on the US though: they need periodic tritium recharge, which comes from the US, the UK having shuttered its tritium production. Though there are plans in train for a new facility, iirc.
    However, I’m sure the French might be see their way to supplying some, if we ask nicely.

    The larger problem are the Trident 2 missiles themselves: those are leased from the US.
    Though getting them back might be easier said than done.
    Contrary to some reports, they are not subject to US permissive control: a secure second strike SLBM with such being a rather stupid approach.
    The RN submarine commanders have full operational control.
    (See: “Letters of Last Resort”)
    They are also not dependent on US GPS for primary trajectory plotting.

    The next generation of UK SLBM’s, I suspect, may be a joint venture with France.
    Which may just happen to incorporate design elements remarkably similar to Trident; purely by coincidence, of course.

    1

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