Election Day is finally here, so allow me to detail the range of possible outcomes, from the disastrous to the sublime.
Utter Disaster: Republicans retain the House and Senate.
Look, I am not going to pretend to be an above-it-all analyst, as I am very much of the view that the Republican Party is supporting an illiberal, anti-democratic authoritarian in the White House and therefore, the party deserves to be repudiated at the ballot box. Moreover, I believe that there needs to be some real accountability in Washington, and having the Republicans at least lose the House is a major step in that direction (not that that is the totality of said goal). As such, if we find ourselves, in this public opinion climate, unable to at least get the barest of electoral accountability, then we are in real trouble.
Additionally, and this is more a pure analytical point, if the Democrats are defeated this cycle for control of the House, then everything we understand about politics and polling will have to be thrown out the window. The failure of the Democrats to win the House this cycle would upend a very powerful historical pattern and mean we have been operating in an illusory information environment. Or it would mean the Trump crew is far more clever and subtle at disrupting elections than anyone could have imagined.
The Republicans winning back the House would be a truly shocking outcome.
The Baseline Outcome: Democrats win the House, but not the Senate.
Indeed, if I wasn’t dramatic enough above, I think that the baseline expectation should be that the House goes to the Democrats. I would expect the Dems to win 235-ish seats, at a conservative guess. Readers can see FiftyPlusOne, Cook, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
For long-time readers, the Toast-o-Meter says: the GOP is toast in the House, maybe even burnt toast.
What I will be looking for is the degree to which GOP gerrymanders end up being dummymanders (in TX and Florida in particular), and also the degree to which Black turnout was incentivized by attacks on the VRA. I will also be curious as to what level of backlash from hispanic voters we will see in place like south Texas.
The Very Possible Bonus, Doubleplusgood Result: Democrats win both chambers.
Here is where we move into bonus land, because we are talking here about an outcome that seemed highly unlikely, if not impossible, even a few months ago: the Republicans lose the Senate as well. This would send an even stronger signal than just having the House flip; it would increase the ability for there to be serious oversight of the administration, and it would create a bulwark against additional judicial shenanigans (such as allowing Trump a fourth pick for SCOTUS).*
Because a 50-50 tie gives the GOP control, since Vance is the tie-breaker, the magic number should be 51. However, because I do not trust Senator Fetterman not to party-swap, the real magic number is 52.
Here’s the math.
| Seats Not Up For Reelection | 34 | |
| Solid Democrat | 9 | CO, DE, IL, MA, NAJ, NM, OR, RI, VA |
| Likely Democrat | 2 | GA, NC |
| Leans Democrat | 3 | MI, MN, NH (all open seats) |
| 48 |
NC is a flip from Republican to Democrat, hence the bold.
To get to 52, the Dems have the following possibilities: AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, and TX (of those, only Maine would have been seen as possible not that long ago).
Are there four seats there? MSNow in partnership with FiftyPlusOne provides the relevant Senate race polling averages.
Dems have slight leads in AK (49.7%-48.0%), IA (47.1%-46.8%), KS (49.3%-45.4%), ME (50.5%-46.4%), OH (48.3%-45.4%), and TX (49.5%-45.8%). I would not bet the house on any of those races, but I would still rather be the Ds than the Rs going into tomorrow.
Those numbers make somewhat confident about Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, so 52-48 is a reasonably possible outcome, but so is 51-49, 50-50, or even 49-51.
The Sublime (Where We Dare to Dream): Democrats run up the numbers in the Senate and in other races as well.
So, why not dare to dream? What if this a wave that crashes decidely blue? What if all of the above go D? That gets the total to 54-46.
But wait, there’s more! The South Carolina race is 45.8%-45.8%. What if voters, already in a bad mood, notice that Darline Graham Nordone doesn’t know much about, well, anything to do with governing? What if Black voters are really, really mad in Mississippi and a blue wave takes a 52.5% to 47.5% contest down to the wire and beyond? What if the 48.1% R to 46.1% Independent race in Nebraska leads to another R loss?
There is far more to dare to dream than one ever would have imagined at the start of this year, or even this summer.
On the gubernatorial front, It increasingly seems likely that Amy Acton will take out Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio (as he deserves). The Georgia race is neck-and-neck.
And, in terms of personal cherries on sundaes, what if the shambolic mess that is Ken Paxton takes out Greg Abbot as well?
In the House, a number of 245 or higher would be great.
*I will confess that I think it is possible for Alito to retire after the election, but before the new Congress is sworn in, to allow Trump an appointment. Thomas wants the record of longest-serving bad enough not to join suit. On the one hand, this would be more questionable, if not dirty pool by the GOP vis-a-vis SCOTUS (although constitutional), but part of methinks: have at, because such actions would likely erode opposition to expanding the Court, a reform I believe that we need.
