The Role of Primaries on Display in Texas
Just move evidence of how our institutions help shape our parties.
Today is primary day in Texas, and there will be considerable attention on the Republican and Democratic primaries to select nominees to run for the U.S. Senate in November. This post is focused on the GOP side.
The main candidates on the Republican side are John Cornyn, the incumbent, and Ken Paxton, the sitting Attorney General. There are six additional candidates on the ballot, but only Wesley Hunt is of special significance as he is polling well enough to easily throw this contest into a run-off. The likely outcome of tonight’s vote is that Paxton and Cornyn head to a run-off in May.
On the Democratic side, the contest is essentially between State Representative James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. There is a third candidate on the ballot, but polling suggests that one of the two will emerge as the nominee once the votes are counted.
These contests highlight a theme I frequently write about: the fact that voters in primaries select candidates, which shapes parties.
Yet again, we are seeing how, instead of a more leadership-driven process, US parties are shaped by their base voters, and in ways that may affect their strategic prospects. To be blunt: a more rational process for Texas Republicans would have been to save a substantial amount of money (this has been the most expensive Senate primary in history) and simply re-nominated the incumbent, Cornyn, who has won all of his contests for the office with ease. His worst showing was in 2020, where he won with a margin just under 10%. Note that 2020 was a good year for Democrats and that Cornyn’s 9.64 point victory outperformed Trump’s 5.58 margin in the state in that election.
Anyone who can do math would be able to look at Cornyn’s track record and say “no thanks” to even a generic challenger, all while saving tens of millions of dollars for the general election, or to support other candidates in more contested races.
I would hasten to add that Cornyn’s major opponent, Ken Paxton, is not some generic candidate, but has been credibly accused of corruption in office, and was impeached by the Republican-controlled state legislature, and barely escaped conviction. He is also in the middle of an ugly, public divorce.
But Paxton is a very MAGA-esque fighter who has been willing to use his office to further any number of MAGA-adjacent political goals, including supporting Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. He clearly appeals to the base of the GOP, i.e., the kind of people who vote in primaries. As Politico notes, MAGA loves scandal-ridden Ken Paxton. Can they get him to the Senate?
“Ken Paxton is more than just an attorney general that’s been MAGA. He is a symbol of the heart of the grassroots MAGA movement,” said Steve Bannon, the former senior adviser to Trump and War Room host who has been broadcasting his popular show from a rented ranch in North Texas in the days leading up to the election.
“He’s resilient because folks here know he has fought the good fight for years and years and years,” Bannon said. “He has resilience because people know where his heart is, and he’s a fighter.”
On the one hand, if one is betting, betting on whomever the Republican nominee is in Texas is a good bet. But, clearly, Cornyn is a known, proven winner who has the best chance of a low-drama win in November.
And yet, Paxton is leading in the polls (and yes, polling primaries is notoriously difficult). Worse, for Cornyn, the polls show a clear majority (~57%) who want Not Cornyn.
I will note that Paxton has done well in statewide races in the past as well, with his most recent win in 2022 looking a bit like Cornyn’s 2020 victory margin-wise. However, his impeachment and divorce have come after that last cycle, although accusations of corruption go back well before 2022.
Still, it is pretty easy to see how the primary process could lead to the obviously more problematic candidate winning the nomination in a year that is looking increasingly Blue.
Again, the odds favor the Rs, but I am pointing out here how structure is leading to the less safe choice potentially being nominated.
It is also noteworthy how much Trump is a central feature of this contest (for more on that, I recommend today’s episode of The Daily).
The contest between Paxton and Cornyn is basically over as to which candidate is a bigger supporter of Trump. Indeed, Paxton’s main opening is that Cornyn publicly stated that it was time to move on from Trump and did not support Trump’s claims about the 2020 election. Paxton, conversely, has endorsed said lie and went to court on Trump’s behalf.
It is noteworthy that Trump has not yet endorsed in this race because, quite frankly, he likes to endorse the winner, and right now it is not clear who the winner will be. But there is no doubt that both candidates are trying to prove their pro-Trump bona fides as they seek to make it to the second round. If there is a Paxton-Cornyn second round, you can bet that the main issue will be Trump.
I would note that Cornyn’s predicament illustrates the rationality (although not the morality) of much of the behavior of GOP officer-holders post-2020. Since Trump was still eligible to run for another term, there was always the possibility that his endorsement and overall support would be valuable down the line for office-seekers in the party. Perhaps more significantly, given Trump’s temperament, opposition to him, even a mild variety, could be costly. As noted above, Cornyn created his own vulnerability by going against Trump. This further underscores the importance of presidents in our party system.
This situation also underscores that if Republicans like Cornyn really thought it was time to move on from Trump, they should have voted to convict in the Senate in the second impeachment trial while they had the chance. Trying to have it both ways has bitten Cornyn and the rest of us in the posterior.
This will all be moot if, as is likely, the winner in November is a Republican.
But, if the base chooses Paxton and if some combination of Paxton’s baggage, the quality of the Democratic candidate, and a blue wave leads to a D in that seat, Republicans will rightly be able to blame the nomination process.
(I had thoughts about the Democratic candidates as well, but I have run out of time.)
I think you mean Ken Paxton, not the late actor Bill Paxton.
@CSK: Ha! Indeed.
Thanks for the note.