Wednesday’s Forum

OTB relies on its readers to support it. Please consider helping by becoming a monthly contributor through Patreon or making a one-time contribution via PayPal. Thanks for your consideration.

FILED UNDER: Open Forum,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. charontwo says:

    Here are the 10 point Iran demands, listed:

    List

    A responsible President of character would find it hard to accede to all this, but instead we have Donald J. Trump. Stay tuned.

    (of course, with a normal President, the situation would not exist to begin with).

    ReplyReply
    1
  2. charontwo says:

    Not just Israel but the GCC also are not on board:

    Wajeeh Lion

    The Gulf’s Gamble:

    Why Saudi Arabia and its Neighbors Want the War to Continue

    ” … ” Now, a month into the fighting, a profound rift has emerged between the United States and its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. On April 7, 2026, President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire. Driven by skyrocketing energy prices at home and a sense that military goals have been met, Washington is looking for an exit. However, the GCC states have emerged as the most vocal opponents of peace. They argue that any ceasefire leaving Iran’s “asymmetric” capabilities—its drones, missiles, and proxy forces—intact would be a strategic disaster.

    Wajeeh Lion

    For the Gulf states, negotiating with Iran right now is seen as a fool’s errand because the Iranian government is in a state of chaotic transition. Following the assassination of Ali Khamenei, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named Supreme Leader. However, intelligence indicates that Mojtaba is physically incapacitated and receiving medical treatment in Qom. The GCC assesses him to be a powerless figurehead.

    ​Similarly, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is viewed by some as “reasonable,” he holds no actual authority. Real power currently resides with a de facto, “mafia-style” IRGC War Council, which the Gulf views as the primary, uncompromising threat. Furthermore, hardline diplomatic rejection is being spearheaded by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament. To the Gulf monarchies, signing a treaty with a fractured leadership that relies on a narrative of revolutionary resistance is meaningless; they believe the IRGC will violate any agreement the moment it feels secure.

    ​The GCC’s Existential Awakening
    ​To understand the fury of the Gulf states, one must look at how drastically their security posture has shifted. In 2025, the GCC’s primary goal was de-escalation and neutrality, epitomized by “Operation Rising Lion” and a China-brokered diplomatic rapprochement with Iran. They viewed U.S. reliability with skepticism, actively restricting the use of American bases on their soil, and hoped to contain the IRGC through diplomacy.

    ​This illusion of safety collapsed on March 1, 2026. In retaliation for the U.S. campaign, Iran launched “Operation True Promise 4,” firing over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones at all six GCC states.

    ​The 2026 posture immediately shifted to demanding a decisive military victory and facing an existential confrontation. The GCC transitioned from restricting U.S. forces to actively encouraging them; Saudi Arabia, in a major policy reversal, permitted U.S. forces to operate offensively from the King Fahd Air Base in Taif, while the UAE closed its embassy in Tehran. The Gulf no longer seeks to contain the IRGC; they are demanding the “generational degradation” of Iran’s military, insisting the U.S. actively protect them and “finish the job.”

    ​Internal political pressures have only hardened this stance. Rather than fracturing the region, public outrage over unprovoked Iranian strikes on civilian infrastructure has generated massive support for offensive retaliation. This shared trauma has also deepened intelligence and defense ties with Israel, effectively forming a de facto “Middle East NATO.” With sweeping economic plans like Vision 2030 relying on a safe investment environment, the Gulf views the total elimination of the IRGC threat as a zero-tolerance requirement, unifying historically competitive rivals like Saudi Arabia and the UAE against a common foe.

    ReplyReply
  3. Daryl says:

    So. TACO. And once again we are to celebrate the arson for pissing on the conflagration that he started.

    ReplyReply
    1
  4. Eusebio says:

    @charontwo:

    A responsible President of character would find it hard to accede to all this,…

    Right. Or to any of the ten demands, with the possible exception of:
    1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again. (with crossed fingers behind back)

    There needs to be an end to this war, but it’s difficult to see any U.S. objectives (whatever they may be) having been met. Despite the “decimating” of its air force, navy, nuclear program, and ballistic missile capability, Iran is in a stronger position now (as are, to a degree, China and Russia).

    ReplyReply
    1
  5. charontwo says:

    @Eusebio:

    This deal is premised on the belief that Israel is a U.S. client state that can be forced to go along and the GCC objections can be ignored. I don’t see these beliefs as all that solid.

    ReplyReply
    1
  6. EddieInCA says:

    Spent last evening in a lovely establishment on Inis Mor (Aran Islands) with four locals. Takeaways:

    1. The locals on this small island are better informed about US politics than most Americans.

    2. As stated in a previous post, they hate Trump. Like real hatred. Their will celebrations all over Ireland when he dies. That’s not speculation. That was said to us more than once.

    3. Dublin, Galway, and most large cities and mid-sized towns are currently having protests against high fuel prices. Dublin and Galway are effectively shut down due to tractors blocking every major street. They piled up, parked and have left their trucks and tractors parked in the middle of roads.

    4. The locals were kind to us the moment they realized we were not “Red Hat wearers”. If you wear a MAGA hat in Ireland, you will not be treated well. If you associate at all in any way with MAGA, you might be kicked out of the pub you’re in.

    5. By American CURRENT standards, both Ireland and Northern w are MUCH MORE woke than the USA. Every restaurant lists allergens for each mean. Our hotels have listed things like “Autism Friendly” and “All Genders Welcomed here”. There are signs everywhere that proclaim “End Racism Now” and “No Room for Racism in Sport”.

    Gonna suck coming back to the USA in 10 days. Sad that I feel more at home in certain foreign countries than I do in the place I was born.

    ReplyReply
    2
  7. Scott says:

    Two recommendations for those needing an escape:

    Movie: Train Dreams. Quiet, meditative movie about a man’s life of no real consequence. Takes place in early 20th century rural Northwest. I really can’t stop thinking about it and I suspect everyone will come away with a different reaction. It is that kind of movie.

    Book: The Wager by David Grann. True story about the disastrous voyage of a British warship (named the Wager) in 1740s. Well researched and documented. But with a propulsive narrative. Harrowing. I’m glad I’m living now and not then.

    ReplyReply

Speak Your Mind

*