Wednesday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. charontwo says:

    Here are the 10 point Iran demands, listed:

    List

    A responsible President of character would find it hard to accede to all this, but instead we have Donald J. Trump. Stay tuned.

    (of course, with a normal President, the situation would not exist to begin with).

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  2. charontwo says:

    Not just Israel but the GCC also are not on board:

    Wajeeh Lion

    The Gulf’s Gamble:

    Why Saudi Arabia and its Neighbors Want the War to Continue

    ” … ” Now, a month into the fighting, a profound rift has emerged between the United States and its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. On April 7, 2026, President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire. Driven by skyrocketing energy prices at home and a sense that military goals have been met, Washington is looking for an exit. However, the GCC states have emerged as the most vocal opponents of peace. They argue that any ceasefire leaving Iran’s “asymmetric” capabilities—its drones, missiles, and proxy forces—intact would be a strategic disaster.

    Wajeeh Lion

    For the Gulf states, negotiating with Iran right now is seen as a fool’s errand because the Iranian government is in a state of chaotic transition. Following the assassination of Ali Khamenei, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named Supreme Leader. However, intelligence indicates that Mojtaba is physically incapacitated and receiving medical treatment in Qom. The GCC assesses him to be a powerless figurehead.

    ​Similarly, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is viewed by some as “reasonable,” he holds no actual authority. Real power currently resides with a de facto, “mafia-style” IRGC War Council, which the Gulf views as the primary, uncompromising threat. Furthermore, hardline diplomatic rejection is being spearheaded by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament. To the Gulf monarchies, signing a treaty with a fractured leadership that relies on a narrative of revolutionary resistance is meaningless; they believe the IRGC will violate any agreement the moment it feels secure.

    ​The GCC’s Existential Awakening
    ​To understand the fury of the Gulf states, one must look at how drastically their security posture has shifted. In 2025, the GCC’s primary goal was de-escalation and neutrality, epitomized by “Operation Rising Lion” and a China-brokered diplomatic rapprochement with Iran. They viewed U.S. reliability with skepticism, actively restricting the use of American bases on their soil, and hoped to contain the IRGC through diplomacy.

    ​This illusion of safety collapsed on March 1, 2026. In retaliation for the U.S. campaign, Iran launched “Operation True Promise 4,” firing over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones at all six GCC states.

    ​The 2026 posture immediately shifted to demanding a decisive military victory and facing an existential confrontation. The GCC transitioned from restricting U.S. forces to actively encouraging them; Saudi Arabia, in a major policy reversal, permitted U.S. forces to operate offensively from the King Fahd Air Base in Taif, while the UAE closed its embassy in Tehran. The Gulf no longer seeks to contain the IRGC; they are demanding the “generational degradation” of Iran’s military, insisting the U.S. actively protect them and “finish the job.”

    ​Internal political pressures have only hardened this stance. Rather than fracturing the region, public outrage over unprovoked Iranian strikes on civilian infrastructure has generated massive support for offensive retaliation. This shared trauma has also deepened intelligence and defense ties with Israel, effectively forming a de facto “Middle East NATO.” With sweeping economic plans like Vision 2030 relying on a safe investment environment, the Gulf views the total elimination of the IRGC threat as a zero-tolerance requirement, unifying historically competitive rivals like Saudi Arabia and the UAE against a common foe.

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  3. Daryl says:

    So. TACO. And once again we are to celebrate the arson for pissing on the conflagration that he started.

    2
  4. Eusebio says:

    @charontwo:

    A responsible President of character would find it hard to accede to all this,…

    Right. Or to any of the ten demands, with the possible exception of:
    1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again. (with crossed fingers behind back)

    There needs to be an end to this war, but it’s difficult to see any U.S. objectives (whatever they may be) having been met. Despite the “decimating” of its air force, navy, nuclear program, and ballistic missile capability, Iran is in a stronger position now (as are, to a degree, China and Russia).

    3
  5. charontwo says:

    @Eusebio:

    This deal is premised on the belief that Israel is a U.S. client state that can be forced to go along and the GCC objections can be ignored. I don’t see these beliefs as all that solid.

    3
  6. EddieInCA says:

    Spent last evening in a lovely establishment on Inis Mor (Aran Islands) with four locals. Takeaways:

    1. The locals on this small island are better informed about US politics than most Americans.

    2. As stated in a previous post, they hate Trump. Like real hatred. Their will celebrations all over Ireland when he dies. That’s not speculation. That was said to us more than once.

    3. Dublin, Galway, and most large cities and mid-sized towns are currently having protests against high fuel prices. Dublin and Galway are effectively shut down due to tractors blocking every major street. They piled up, parked and have left their trucks and tractors parked in the middle of roads.

    4. The locals were kind to us the moment they realized we were not “Red Hat wearers”. If you wear a MAGA hat in Ireland, you will not be treated well. If you associate at all in any way with MAGA, you might be kicked out of the pub you’re in.

    5. By American CURRENT standards, both Ireland and Northern w are MUCH MORE woke than the USA. Every restaurant lists allergens for each mean. Our hotels have listed things like “Autism Friendly” and “All Genders Welcomed here”. There are signs everywhere that proclaim “End Racism Now” and “No Room for Racism in Sport”.

    Gonna suck coming back to the USA in 10 days. Sad that I feel more at home in certain foreign countries than I do in the place I was born.

    15
  7. Scott says:

    Two recommendations for those needing an escape:

    Movie: Train Dreams. Quiet, meditative movie about a man’s life of no real consequence. Takes place in early 20th century rural Northwest. I really can’t stop thinking about it and I suspect everyone will come away with a different reaction. It is that kind of movie.

    Book: The Wager by David Grann. True story about the disastrous voyage of a British warship (named the Wager) in 1740s. Well researched and documented. But with a propulsive narrative. Harrowing. I’m glad I’m living now and not then.

    2
  8. Rob1 says:

    @charontwo:

    With sweeping economic plans like Vision 2030 relying on a safe investment environment, the Gulf views the total elimination of the IRGC threat as a zero-tolerance requirement, unifying historically competitive rivals like Saudi Arabia and the UAE against a common foe.

    And yet here we are. Surely the GCC are now factoring into their deeper thoughts, the apparent unreliability and schizoid expression of American leadership and our penchant for leaving messes.

    3
  9. Rob1 says:

    @Scott: Train Dreams, two thumbs up.

    1
  10. charontwo says:

    @Rob1:

    Loyalty only goes in one direction with Trump. Under Trump, the U.S. cares little regarding any concerns its “allies” have.

    historically competitive rivals like Saudi Arabia and the UAE against a common foe.

    Add Israel to that. That’s a lot of “allies” for Trump to ignore.

    2
  11. Michael Reynolds says:

    @EddieInCA:
    There are some similarities between the Irish story and the Jewish story. Both have long histories of being oppressed, and both peoples remember their history. The Irish remember that the American door was open when they were starving. The Israelis remember the righteous among the nations. Both arguably handicapped by their respective religions. Both punch way above their weight in the world. Both suffer from proximity to hostile nations.

    But one is in Europe and the other is in the Middle East, so the Irish are active in basically every good cause there is – if someone is starving or dying of disease there’s an Irish nurse nearby. And the other country with a similar story became Sparta.

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  12. gVOR10 says:

    @charontwo:

    Under Trump, the U.S. cares little regarding any concerns its “allies” have.

    With any luck, this has at least estranged Trump from Netanyahu.

    2
  13. Kathy says:

    Prof. Taylor posted this on the Ancient Geeks substack.

    quote:

    To reiterate, I think that the core problem with these writer’s rooms can’t quite surmount is that they are thinking like each season is kind of a long TNG ep, rather than using the broad canvas at their disposal to tell a more complicated and rounded story with a true beginning, middle, and end.

    I’ve been saying this for years. And it’s not just Trek. Some other shows do the same, like Ahsoka. though these may be more like elongated movies, as they’re certainly not TNG eps 😉

    And there’s more. It’s worth reading the whole thing.

    2
  14. drj says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    And the other country with a similar story became Sparta.

    Sounds cool, if not for the fact that Sparta sucked ass in pretty much every category you can think of. Even their vaunted military was mediocre at best.

    From the series’ conclusion:

    [Sparta] was one of the least equal societies in the ancient Mediterranean, and one which treated its underclasses – who made up to within a rounding error of the entire society by the end – terribly. […]

    And Sparta was not militarily excellent. Its military was profoundly mediocre, depressingly average. Even in battle, the one thing they were supposed to be good at, Sparta lost as much as it won. Judging Sparta as we should – by how well it achieved strategic objects – Sparta’s armies are a comprehensive failure. […]

    The horror of the Spartan system, the nastiness of the agoge, the oppression of the helots, the regimentation of daily life, it was all for nothing. Worse yet, it created a Spartan leadership class that seemed incapable of thinking its way around even basic problems. All of that supposedly cool stuff made Sparta weaker, not stronger. […]

    This would be bad enough, but the case for Sparta is worse because it – as a point of pride – provided nothing else. […] Athens produced great literature and innovative political thinking. Corinth was economically essential – a crucial port in the heart of Greece. Thebes gave us Pindar and was in the early fourth century a hotbed of military innovation. All three cities were adorned by magnificent architecture and supplied great art by great artists. But Sparta, Sparta gives us almost nothing.

    Sparta was – if you will permit the comparison – an ancient North Korea. An over-militarized, paranoid state which was able only to protect its own systems of internal brutality and which added only oppression to the sum of the human experience. Little more than an extraordinarily effective prison, metastasized to the level of a state. There is nothing of redeeming value here.

    Sparta is not something to be emulated. It is a cautionary tale.

    8
  15. drj says:

    Speaking of Sparta, one of my favorite factoids regards the phrase molon labe (“come and take them” – also much beloved by today’s gun nuts).

    Wikipedia:

    Molṑn labé (Greek: μολὼν λαβέ, transl. ”come and take [them]”) is a Greek phrase attributed to Leonidas I of Sparta during his written correspondence with Xerxes I of Persia on the eve of the Battle of Thermopylae in 480 BC. A classical expression of defiance, it is among the Laconic phrases reported by the Greek historian Plutarch, and is said to have been Leonidas’s response to Xerxes’s demand that the Spartan army lay down their weapons and surrender to the Persian army during the second Persian invasion of Greece.

    Of course, the Persians won the Battle of Thermopylae. Which means that, in the end, they did come and did take the Spartans’ weapons.

    But Sparta bros somehow always omit that pesky little detail.

    6
  16. Kathy says:

    @drj:

    They were better coming up with clever laconisms than fighting wars.

    Philip II* threatened them with what he’d do if he invaded Laconia. The Spartans replied “If.”

    Phillip invaded and then devastated much of the area.

    *Alexander’s dad.

    1
  17. Michael Reynolds says:

    @drj:
    I was not implying that Sparta was to be emulated, it was intended as cautionary because of course I actually know all that Spartan history. Sparta works for the purpose of my comment because among the readership are people who believe the common view of Sparta, and there are people who know the detail but also know the common view and would hence, understand what I was writing.

    2
  18. Just Another Ex-Republican says:

    And now it’s being reported that Iran is closing the strait again because Israel attacked Lebanon/Hezbollah after the cease fire.

    Netanyahu is a criminal thug who has done more damage to America’s support for Israel and Israel’s future prospects than Iran could ever dream of.

    12
  19. charontwo says:

    @Just Another Ex-Republican:

    It’s likely a bit more complicated than that. That’s a useful spin for Israel bashing though.

    1
  20. drj says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Admittedly, the comparison is somewhat apt in the sense that it hardly ends well if one abandons one’s civilizing principles in order to become the meanest son of a bitch of the neighborhood.

    3
  21. drj says:

    @charontwo:

    Assuming that Iran is able to tell Hezbollah to knock it off for now (which it is), WTF is Israel doing in Lebanon except for dragging the US back into the war?

    100 targets hit in 10 minutes: IDF launches largest strike across Lebanon since war began

    Right after a cease fire deal has been reached.

    7
  22. Kathy says:

    @charontwo:

    Saudi Arabia and all its rich Gulf neighbors have armed forces of their own. They can continue the war whenever they feel like it.

    8
  23. Just Another Ex-Republican says:

    @charontwo: I have no problems with Israel. I have major problems with its current leadership, just like I do with America’s current leadership. The actions of Trump and Netanyahu have done lasting damage to both countries standing in the world, their future prospects, and both administrations are engaging in morally reprehensible behavior (from ICE and lawfare to Gaza and settler movements). And in fact both Netanyahu and Trump are criminals too.

    But sure, pull up the anti-Israel card (hinting at anti-semitism to boot). Surely that helps have an honest conversation.

    12
  24. charontwo says:

    @Just Another Ex-Republican:

    But sure, pull up the anti-Israel card (hinting at anti-semitism to boot). Surely that helps have an honest conversation.

    I am aware that Netanyahu has been likely to lose the upcoming election this autumn, and is probably now even more likely to be removed then.

    Still, while Netanyahu lacks public support, the Israeli public does support action against Hezbollah. Thus, any conceivable Israeli leader would also continue to take kinetic action against Hezbollah. There is no way Israel would agree to accept tolerating Hezbollah, Netanyahu or no Netanyahu.

    From the reporting I have seem, the supposed negotiations are not actually real, just a pretext for Trump to TACO his war crimey ultimatum.

    And Iran claims UAE attacked its Lavan island refinery which is now burning, so it’s not just Israel that is not standing down for Trump’s TACO stunt.

  25. Gustopher says:

    @Just Another Ex-Republican:

    I have no problems with Israel.

    You have no problems with an apartheid state that has been ethnically cleansing Palestinians to steal the entirely of the West Bank for the Jewish settlers? To say nothing of Gaza, or “mowing the lawn”?

    Not a single problem? It’s a country constructed (very poorly) out of the failures of English Imperialism mixed with a desire to solve the “Jewish Problem” in Europe by sending them away. The racism and ethnic supremacy is baked into the country.

    (I support a new Jewish homeland in either one of the Dakotas (we have a spare) or Wyoming, or any of our other empty states. We can move some topsoil if they want to keep their land given to them by their god or whatever — if the wire around Manhattan works to keep everyone indoors or whatever, then some topsoil will be good enough that they can say their are keeping the land)

    5
  26. Just Another Ex-Republican says:

    @Gustopher: I would again say that Gaza, as well as their “mowing the lawn” approach and the apartheid state they are creating (with more than a whiff of ethnic cleansing to boot, as you said and I agree) is once again the fault of the current leadership rather than all of Israel. I don’t hate all my fellow Americans or my country even though we as a nation were dumb enough to elect Trump twice (for the record I never voted for him and actively campaigned against all 3 of his runs), and as a nation deserve the consequences of doing so.

    Really I don’t really get into any state’s “right to exist” or hate countries in total. I try to limit my hate and disdain to specific people (Trump, Netanyahu, and Stephen Miller leap to mind) and, in some cases, movements/groups like, say, Hezbollah, the IRGC, or the Settler movement. I rather firmly believe that most people are just people trying to get along with their lives the best they can. Most of the evil in the world is done by a relatively small percentage of assholes who are both loud and somehow granted or seize power they shouldn’t have and get away with abuses because its so hard for the mass of relatively decent folks to do anything about it, especially because “doing something” entails some level of personal risk not only to themselves, but to their loved ones.

    Your explanation of Israel’s creation is a bit disengenous, I think. While I don’t disagree with your claims not including that it was created in response to the world’s guilt in letting 6 million of them get exterminated leaves out a rather important, one might even say overwhelming, factor.

    Frustrating thread. My initial conversation specifically named Netanyahu as hurting Israel, which led to criticism of me for Israel bashing, and when I tried to say I wasn’t bashing Israel I get challenged from the other side that I’m not critical enough. I should probably just return to my normal browsing and not comment.

    6
  27. charontwo says:

    @Just Another Ex-Republican:

    I should probably just return to my normal browsing and not comment.

    Isn’t arguing about disagreements good for clarifying thinking?

    3
  28. Kathy says:

    @Just Another Ex-Republican:

    Bibi’s been elected more than three times.

    I just can’t give a pass to the voters of a nation that keep a bad leader in power for that long. Not as long as the elections are free, which in Israel and the US have been until now.

    2
  29. Kathy says:

    I’m currently reading The Good Virus, by Tom Ireland. It’s about bacteriophages, viruses that infect bacteria.

    The author advocates their use as treatment for infection, though right now he’s telling the story of the biologist who did the earliest R&D on them, beginning in 1917.

    What I find astonishing is people could manipulate and produce viruses, without 1) knowing what viruses are, or even 2) being able to see one. they made vials of clear fluid that killed bacterial cultures, by the simple expedient of filtering out everything else. No wonder some biologists believed viruses to be some kind of liquid…

    2
  30. dazedandconfused says:

    @Scott: Have to ask if that book covered the rest of Anson fleet’s horrific odyssey around the world. On a par with Magellan’s, only about 17% of the crews who started lived to see the end, and yet it is still deemed a “success”. The tale of the Wager is just the tip of the iceberg.

  31. Richard Gardner says:

    Jim Whittaker, mountaineer has passed in his late 90s, 1st American to summit Mt Everest (kiwi got there first). Also REI CEO (not called that then, CEO?) https://www.rei.com/blog/climb/jim-whittaker-everest-legend.