US to Blockade Closed Strait
The flailing president.
So, now the US is, if social media posts from the president are to be taken seriously and to be understood as a full vehicle by which we can understand complex policy circumstances (yes, I know), now going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
Sooo, the talks were great, except that they weren’t, and now the US is going to turn off the trickle of ships that had been allowed through the Strait, which will further exacerbate the economic effects of the closure.
I know at one point Trump mused in public about a joint US-Iran venture over the Strait, who knew it would be a partnership in utterly closing the thing down.
This is, to be clear, an escalation in the conflict, and if we are going to move naval vessels into the Strait as described, one has to assume that the cease-fire is on the rocks.
It is here that I must note that negotiating over Iran’s nuclear ambitions did not require a war to get them to the table, as they were already willing to negotiate on that subject, you know, prior to the war. It is a poor choice, to put it mildly, to use military action to induce talks that did not require said military action.
In simple terms, that’s proof you lost the military engagement. If you blow up thousands of targets, kill thousands of people, all while spending billions (and creating shortages of munitions) and losing at least 13 servicemembers, and you can’t get more out of the enemy than before all the explosions, you lost.
It is like having a job wherein you are in negotiations with your boss over a raise and a promotion, and then going on a strike that forces you to refinance your home to afford the strike, only to have your boss agree to negotiate a raise and a promotion. Oh, and the reason you were in talks about a raise and a promotion is that you had torn up an agreement a few years ago that would have guaranteed a raise and a promotion, but you thought you could get better terms by looking like a tough guy.
But wait, there’s more!
Who could have predicted that sending two real estate guys (one of whom has conflicts of interest because of his dealings with the Saudis) who have no training or expertise in diplomacy or in the politics and culture of the reason alongside a relatively green politicians with little in way of foregn policy bona fides might not be able to produce a big, beautiful deal in one sitting?
It boggles the mind.
All of this underscores the clear fact that Trump was willing to jump into this war because he thought it would be easy, and now doesn’t know what to do. He has settled on bleating about NUCLEAR WEAPONS because it sounds serious, and a lot of people fall for it.
Understand, I would prefer that there be no further nuclear proliferation globally, and I especially prefer that the current regime in Iran not acquire such a weapon. But not only was this assault not necessary to stop them (and, again, we had a deal that was definitely slowing them on their pathway that Trump tore up), but this assault will have cemented the notion in the minds of Iranian leadership that they must acquire a bomb to forestall such attacks in the future.
Side note: the way in which Trump is dismantling the rules-based order wherein the US acted as a security guarantor for many allies, including being firmly under our nuclear umbrella, will almost certainly lead to more nuclear proliferation in the medium term. Allies who can not rely on the US and are fearful of regional adversaries will be motivated to acquire their own nuclear deterrents. This is just another way that the reckless and ignorant foreign policy of our erratic president has created long-term instability problems that will well outlive him.
I do understand that a total blockade of the Strait will have negative effects on Iran (as they have been allowed to sell oil with sanctions lifted and Iran has allowed some allied ships to pass through the Strait), but the bottom line is that a total closure will exacerbate the already significant damage to the global economy. This is Trump putting more pressure on himself.
But who needs to understand such things when you operate on a name-it-and-claim-it version of international relations?
“Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me. The reason is because we’ve won,” Trump told reporters.
“We’re in very deep negotiations with Iran. We win regardless. We’ve defeated them militarily,” Trump said.
Source: Al Arabiya English, Trump says makes ‘no difference’ to him if Iran, US reach deal
77 Million Americans thought electing this man, whose proven incompetence has been worsened by cognitive decline, was a good idea.
If there is a problem with our politics it is that almost half the electorate are fools.
And how is the US going to enforce it if another country decides it doesn’t recognize the authority of the US Navy. Let’s say if an Asian country wants to escort a tanker through, will the US fire upon a neutral country’s navy ship? What about a bigger country like China? This may be the time it wants to flex its legal authority on the seas.
The felon is like one of those bears that show up in the news periodically that have a tire or bucket around their neck and can’t get it off. It is probably sinking in to his ferbriled mind that the Iranians aren’t giving up and to achieve the ends he’s outlined will require an invasion force at least as large as the ones for the Iraq wars and the troops will be there for years.
Even he doesn’t believe his BS that he’s won and this is an attempt cast about for an alternative. Though it makes no sense and like this entire escapade confuses doing something with accomplishing something.
It seems that the current situation will endure till the next president takes office. Regardless of party, the president will have the option of walking away from the felon’s actions and resetting US policy in accordance with the new reality.
What comes to mind is this scene from The West Wing.
Tribbey’s only flaw is that he’s fictional.
Then there’s this little gem:
China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader
Krugman.
I admit to desperately seeking a silver lining here, but perhaps the world will gain new insights into the limits of hegemony when there is globalism. Two Great Powers – first Russia with Ukraine, now the US with Iraq – have found it’s not so easy to force your will on another nation despite vastly superior military power when there are established (albeit shaky) international alliances and global trade is in place.
@Scott:
“The Taiwan Work Office under China’s Communist Party issued a statement saying it would explore setting up a longstanding communication mechanism between the Communist Party and Taiwan’s Kuomingtang Party.”
Ok, hell has officially frozen over.
@Jay L. Gischer: Here China seems to be operating from a sense of power and confidence they didn’t feel even a month ago. I wonder what happened?
This is one of those stories when you first hear it in some partial CNN report while you’re doing laundry, you dismiss it. Must be hearing it wrong. Or the reporter doesn’t know how to tell the story. Or. . . something, because it’s not possible that the President of the United States just threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz because Iran won’t open the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, that obviously can’t be real.
This is where ‘never back down always double down,’ thinking gets you. Krugman has it right: Cleavon Little threatening his own life.
This is not Madman Theory, this is Moron Theory.