So, now the US is, if social media posts from the president are to be taken seriously and to be understood as a full vehicle by which we can understand complex policy circumstances (yes, I know), now going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
Sooo, the talks were great, except that they weren’t, and now the US is going to turn off the trickle of ships that had been allowed through the Strait, which will further exacerbate the economic effects of the closure.
I know at one point Trump mused in public about a joint US-Iran venture over the Strait, who knew it would be a partnership in utterly closing the thing down.
This is, to be clear, an escalation in the conflict, and if we are going to move naval vessels into the Strait as described, one has to assume that the cease-fire is on the rocks.
It is here that I must note that negotiating over Iran’s nuclear ambitions did not require a war to get them to the table, as they were already willing to negotiate on that subject, you know, prior to the war. It is a poor choice, to put it mildly, to use military action to induce talks that did not require said military action.
In simple terms, that’s proof you lost the military engagement. If you blow up thousands of targets, kill thousands of people, all while spending billions (and creating shortages of munitions) and losing at least 13 servicemembers, and you can’t get more out of the enemy than before all the explosions, you lost.
It is like having a job wherein you are in negotiations with your boss over a raise and a promotion, and then going on a strike that forces you to refinance your home to afford the strike, only to have your boss agree to negotiate a raise and a promotion. Oh, and the reason you were in talks about a raise and a promotion is that you had torn up an agreement a few years ago that would have guaranteed a raise and a promotion, but you thought you could get better terms by looking like a tough guy.
But wait, there’s more!
Who could have predicted that sending two real estate guys (one of whom has conflicts of interest because of his dealings with the Saudis) who have no training or expertise in diplomacy or in the politics and culture of the reason alongside a relatively green politicians with little in way of foregn policy bona fides might not be able to produce a big, beautiful deal in one sitting?
It boggles the mind.
All of this underscores the clear fact that Trump was willing to jump into this war because he thought it would be easy, and now doesn’t know what to do. He has settled on bleating about NUCLEAR WEAPONS because it sounds serious, and a lot of people fall for it.
Understand, I would prefer that there be no further nuclear proliferation globally, and I especially prefer that the current regime in Iran not acquire such a weapon. But not only was this assault not necessary to stop them (and, again, we had a deal that was definitely slowing them on their pathway that Trump tore up), but this assault will have cemented the notion in the minds of Iranian leadership that they must acquire a bomb to forestall such attacks in the future.
Side note: the way in which Trump is dismantling the rules-based order wherein the US acted as a security guarantor for many allies, including being firmly under our nuclear umbrella, will almost certainly lead to more nuclear proliferation in the medium term. Allies who can not rely on the US and are fearful of regional adversaries will be motivated to acquire their own nuclear deterrents. This is just another way that the reckless and ignorant foreign policy of our erratic president has created long-term instability problems that will well outlive him.
I do understand that a total blockade of the Strait will have negative effects on Iran (as they have been allowed to sell oil with sanctions lifted and Iran has allowed some allied ships to pass through the Strait), but the bottom line is that a total closure will exacerbate the already significant damage to the global economy. This is Trump putting more pressure on himself.
But who needs to understand such things when you operate on a name-it-and-claim-it version of international relations?
“Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me. The reason is because we’ve won,” Trump told reporters.
“We’re in very deep negotiations with Iran. We win regardless. We’ve defeated them militarily,” Trump said.
Source: Al Arabiya English, Trump says makes ‘no difference’ to him if Iran, US reach deal
