Tuesday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Scott says:

    This is one source I normally read. There are others with different perspectives. Got to keep that in mind. The truth is out there. Somewhere.

    Iran Updates from ISW

    • The United States and Iran continue to hold fundamentally different positions on most major issues within the US-Iran “agreement.” Iran has not publicly committed to removing its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpiles or to halting uranium enrichment in Iran, reinforcing broader uncertainty around the negotiations. US President Donald Trump said on May 25 that any deal with Iran must be “great and meaningful,” and explicitly rejected “anything like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).”

    • Iran has continued to claim that it and Oman control the Strait of Hormuz as territorial waters. Iranian officials are attempting to reframe transit tolls as “protection fees” to give Iran’s protection racket the veneer of legality. The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway under international law. Iran is claiming that the strait is territorial waters and under the administration of “coastal” states. It is notable in this context that Iran does not define the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a coastal state, even though the UAE borders the strait.

    • US President Donald Trump urged on May 25 the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan to join the Abraham Accords.

    • Hezbollah drone operators have likely developed a rudimentary tactical approach to coordinate multiple small first-person view (FPV) drone strikes in a short period of time. The “swarm” attacks appear to employ three or more drones operating in a staggered but near-simultaneous manner. This system is extremely rudimentary and would either require a single commander to coordinate the attack or a preset, prioritized list of strikes that cannot be dynamically changed. Hezbollah will likely attempt to overcome the shortcomings of this tactical approach.

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  2. Scott says:

    Interesting piece.

    Coming to Terms With Our Strategic Inadequacies

    The United States military is the most capable in the world. And yet, our political leaders have demonstrated an inability, across decades, to effectively utilize this powerful kinetic tool to achieve broader strategic aims.

    Iran is the most recent case in point. Although the result of America’s war there remains uncertain, it is clear that the White House’s air campaign failed to achieve its originally stated aim of regime change. This problem extends across administrations, whether with the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Obama White House’s intervention in Libya or the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq.

    These failures did not result from insufficient resources or will or lack of masculine virtue. The root cause of the problem is the unwillingness to confront a central challenge of strategy: how to use military force to cause desired political effects. American leaders, and supporting national security staffers and intellectuals, must confront this challenge and commit to resolving our strategic inadequacies.

    Too often, strategies developed across the U.S. inter-agency include a pie in the sky goal followed by a laundry list of actions various bureaucratic entities can execute. This is not strategy.

    We suggest two main reasons for the persistence of American commitment to using military force to achieve political effects. The first is American exceptionalism, particularly the American sense of moral superiority and belief that those that oppose the United States are morally suspect. This can lead to the United States getting locked into the posture that the U.S. should always dictate terms to other countries and to do so, it needs a strong military to get what it wants.

    Political goals are irrelevant if there is no plausible way to make them happen. All of Trump’s goals for Iran require the Iranian government to agree to something, e.g., limiting their ballistic missile program, limiting their nuclear program, limiting their support of terrorist groups, etc. Political goals require negotiation and compromise, and not just the use of force. The Trump administration seems to have belatedly turned to diplomacy, but it remains to be seen whether this will lead to sustainable peace. What is clear is that this administration has already failed to achieve its desired political effects through military force and now must try to salvage what it can as pressure mounts at home and abroad.

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  3. Scott says:

    Reminder that the UAE is a signatory of the Abraham Accords. Yet they are involved in some actions that are pretty heinous.

    UAE accused of training Colombian mercenaries for Sudan’s war

    The United Arab Emirates trained Colombian mercenaries before sending them to fight alongside a notorious paramilitary group in Sudan’s devastating war, Human Rights Watch said Tuesday.

    Its new report is the latest by an international rights group accusing the wealthy Gulf monarchy of financially and militarily aiding the Rapid Support Forces that have been widely accused of committing atrocities amounting to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.

    The RSF was born out of feared Arab Janjaweed militias that were notorious for atrocities in the early 2000s against people identifying as East or Central African in Sudan’s western region of Darfur.

    The U.S. has imposed sanctions on many people and firms based in Colombia’s capital, Bogota, over allegedly recruiting and deploying Colombian mercenaries to fight with the RSF. But it hasn’t addressed reports of the UAE’s alleged support to RSF which it accused of repeatedly carrying out “summary executions, ethnically motivated attacks, sexual and gender-based violence, and torture throughout areas under its control” during the war.

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  4. Charley in Cleveland says:

    With serious, “close to a deal” negotiations (allegedly) underway, Trump has the military attack Iran, thereby yanking the rug from beneath the U.S. negotiators’ feet and demonstrating his ongoing bad faith to Iran AND to Congress AND to all of us. Not sure if the (alleged) negotiations are still being conducted by the real estate/grifter firm of Witkoff & Kushner, but Trump is, perhaps inadvertently, making sure this “excursion” will last a long time.

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  5. Scott says:

    @Charley in Cleveland: The new attack on Iran has been labeled “self defense”. How Orwellian but typical of this regime.

    Not sure if the (alleged) negotiations are still being conducted by the real estate/grifter firm of Witkoff & Kushner

    It is worse. Here’s an article in the Atlantic (I only see the first paragraph) that talks about the other side of the Kushner/Witkoff clown show: The Magician of the Kremlin

    For the past 18 months, Vladimir Putin’s efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine have been led by a man with no diplomatic background or expertise. Kirill Dmitriev, a banker who is under sanctions for his role in financing the war, has been shuttling from Moscow to Florida to meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in and around the exclusive island known as Billionaire Bunker. His pitch during these rendezvous is that the United States should sell out Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for glittering billion-dollar projects for Russian and American companies—digging for precious minerals in the Arctic, say, or joint missions to Mars.

    3
  6. charontwo says:

    @Scott:

    Here is, I hope, a gift link:

    Atlantic Gift

    Tell me if it works, I can’t tell.

  7. CSK says:

    @charontwo:

    It works fine for me.

  8. Scott says:

    @charontwo: Worked for me also. Thanks!

  9. charontwo says:

    @Scott:

    I watch this every day, am watching it now. Today’s is a goodie, lots of info.

    Malcome Nance, daily videocast

  10. Kylopod says:

    I just wanted to pop in here to say that Trump’s remark the other day about being one of the few people to know that dumb has a b in it—when I first saw the quote being sent around on social media, I literally thought it was satire. I couldn’t believe when I found out he actually said it.

    https://youtu.be/ls5BFzuxGw4?si=UPWYQnc7M7kT_HMT

  11. inhumans99 says:

    @Scott:

    Does it really matter that Russia wants President Trump to sell out Ukraine, the answer is yes he would be happy to give Ukraine to Russia,

    However, he is no longer in a position to be able to easily give Putin what he desires. Although I can picture Trump telling Putin what more do you want from me, I gave my blessings to Russia taking over Ukraine. The Country is yours and ripe for the pickings, all you have to do is stop them from killing your troops and destroying your oil infrastructure.

    Other than Trump actually attacking Ukraine with our military to get them to stop attacking Russia the situation is what it is.

    1
  12. Kathy says:

    @inhumans99:

    Other than Trump actually attacking Ukraine with our military to get them to stop attacking Russia the situation is what it is.

    First, naturally, this would cause one senator Collins to experience a bad case of concern.

    Second, suppose El Taco does just that, and Ukraine still manages to hang on.

    Third, where would US forces be based to attack Ukraine? Europe? No way Germany, Poland, Italy, etc. allow bases on their territory to be used for this. It’d have to be carriers in the Black Sea. Or maybe Hesghthe’s Invincible Manly Air Force could fly from bases in Russia and Belarus, like the ones Ukraine’s been hitting. Suppose they damage a carrier, too?

    I don’t know why I’m saying this in such a mocking, snarky tone. It could very well all happen.

    2
  13. charontwo says:

    @inhumans99:

    Trump has hated Zelenskyy ever since Zelenskyy’s refusal to manufacture a fake scandal for him, the thing he first got impeached over.

    3
  14. Kathy says:

    On lighter stuff, has anyone seen the latest Star Wars movie? I’d planned to see it, but forgot all about it this weekend. I’ve seen every SW film in theaters in the opening weekend, except for this one.

    I’ve a feeling it will be ok, as a two part “The Mandalorian” episode. Just maybe my subconscious doesn’t want to shell out money to watch TV at the movie theater.

    Over the weekend I made potatoes au gratin using a cheese sauce recipe. It’s crazy high in dairy (cheese, milk, and butter), but not bad. I think it would benefit from a cheese with a stronger flavor than cheddar, maybe gruyere. I also added garlic and paprika to the sauce, which helps a lot.

    I layered potatoes, raw onions (cut in rings), turkey chorizo, more potatoes, with sauce on top of each layer. At the very top I added caramelized onions.

    It might also help to parboil the potatoes rather than cooking them from raw in the oven. they cooked well, but take a long time. the sauce clearly suffered for this. It reduced too much.

    1
  15. CSK says:

    @inhumans99:

    Trump’s solution to the Ukraine war has from the beginning been “give Russia what it wants.”

    His exact words.

    2
  16. Kathy says:

    I used to wonder why cheetahs were never domesticated.

    They’re rather non-aggressive*, weakly territorial, and have been tamed throughout history for use in hunting. The downside is they’re hard to breed in captivity, they require a large range, they’re not cheap to feed (about 3 kilograms meat every day), they’re weakly social, and their genetic diversity is tiny.

    Besides, who needs a large carnivore for domestic use? Even when used in hunting, this was by the very wealthy who hunted for sport, not by average people who hunted for food.

    *When challenged over a kill by another predator, they tend to withdraw. There are no confirmed cases of a cheetah in the wild attacking a human.

    1
  17. dazedandconfused says:

    @Scott: Selecting a banker instead of a diplomat for dealing with the Trumps makes sense, as the Trumps are obviously and shamelessly on the take. Diplomats lack experience in the area of large, complex pay-offs and bribes at the level of billion$.

    I would bet the guy believes, like I suspect Putin wants to believe, that this war will eventually end and the decades-long process of slowly integrating the Russian economy with the Western economy will resume. Again, a banker is more qualified to set things up for that anticipated condition than a typical diplomat is.

    3
  18. Adam Kinzinger’s comment regarding reports that Vance is considering dropping out of the 2028 kerfuffle.

    JD Vance sold his soul to be vice president. He spent years calling Donald Trump everything from a fraud to America’s Hitler, then became his loyal number two. He made his bed. Now he is figuring out, in real time, that the bed is full of broken glass. You don’t get to opt out of the consequences of the choice you made.

    Apparently Vance is discovering the ugly truth that ETTD.

    Who knew?

    8
  19. a country lawyer says:

    The DOD has given to Congress its report of aircraft combat losses in the Iran war. It can be found here.
    It includes 4 F15-Es,1A-10, 1 KC135, 2 C-130s, 1 HH-60 Helo, 4 MQ-6 Drones, and 1 MQ-4 Navy drone. Damaged were 5 KC 135s,1F35A,and 1E-3. The amount of damage was not reported

    1
  20. Kathy says:

    Air New Zealand will soon roll out The Sky Nest, a set of six bunk beds available in economy for use in flight.

    It’s a good idea on the abstract. Concretely, however, the prices is said to be about $495 for a four (4) hour block, on top of the fare paid.

    I just don’t see it catching on. I mean, you charge me over $100 an hour for a bed, I expect queen size at a minimum, plus hookers and cocaine (In the abstract. I wouldn’t know what to do with the latter two, but I hear that’s the service expected on beds with hourly rates).

    Air New Zealand already sells the Sky Couch, which transforms a row segment into a couch or a very short bed. Here’s a review of it. I’ve heard conflicting accounts on price, but it’s good for the whole flight. The Air New Zealand website says between $499 and $1,400 for one person, on top of the fare.

    IMO, long haul in coach plain sucks, and there’s no easy or cheap way to improve the experience.

    I wonder how many hours a sleeping pill is good for, and how much they cost. I don’t suppose 16 hours is realistic.

  21. CSK says:

    Trump says that everything checked out “perfectly” during his six-month check up at Walter Reed. A WH spokesperson told ABC News that “President Trump is the sharpest and most accessible president in American history.”

    I don’t know how anyone could make that claim with a straight face.

    2
  22. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    I don’t know how anyone could make that claim with a straight face.

    I’m often surprised at the depths of mendacity that can be reached when the claimant lacks a working brain.

    1
  23. Kathy says:

    Meanwhile, at the dictator’s palace formerly known as the White House, the desecrations continue unabated.

    I expect some time next year, building of a Taco mausoleum will begin.

    The provinces aren’t safe, either. I trust New Yorkers retain a whimsical sense for graffiti and critical vandalism. They’re going to need it.

    1
  24. Slugger says:

    I don’t know what the next steps in the evolution of drones will be, but they are already deadly effective and relatively cheap. Right now, a large ruthless nation, Russia, is stymied by Ukraine which is much weaker on paper. While we worry about uranium, one can picture the USA being stalemated by a much smaller nation with drones. Another cause for concern are nonstate actors. Osama binLaden was very rich and recruited some suicidal henchmen. Will someone who is a lot less rich and not suicidal be able to launch an attack? Are there people in the Middle East or other places where the US has acted who would wish to visit destruction on us?

    2
  25. Slugger says:

    I don’t know what the next steps in the evolution of drones will be, but they are already deadly effective and relatively cheap. Right now, a large ruthless nation, Russia, is stymied by Ukraine which is much weaker on paper. While we worry about uranium, one can picture the USA being stalemated by a much smaller nation with drones. Another cause for concern are nonstate actors. Osama binLaden was very rich and recruited some suicidal henchmen. Will someone who is a lot less rich and not suicidal be able to launch an attack? Are there people in the Middle East or other places where the US has acted who would wish to visit destruction on us?

  26. Slugger says:

    I don’t know what the next steps in the evolution of drones will be, but they are already deadly effective and relatively cheap. Right now, a large ruthless nation, Russia, is stymied by Ukraine which is much weaker on paper. While we worry about uranium, one can picture the USA being stalemated by a much smaller nation with drones. Another cause for concern are nonstate actors. Osama binLaden was very rich and recruited some suicidal henchmen. Will someone who is a lot less rich and not suicidal be able to launch an attack? Are there people in the Middle East or other places where the US has acted who would wish to visit destruction on us?

  27. CSK says:

    @Kathy:

    I may puke.

    1
  28. Jen says:

    Bejeebus. Cornyn didn’t just lose he got beat badly, by Ken Paxton–a walking scandal.

    Ooof.

    1
  29. Eusebio says:

    @Jen:
    It looks like Paxton got nearly two-thirds of the vote of—if my math is correct—the 5 percent of Texas residents who participated in the primary runoff.

    2