The week NYC voters go to the polls and the odds-on favorite to win is Zohan Mamdarni. Here is a sample of the most recent polls from the NYT. It stands to reason that the Democratic nominee would be polling ahead in the race, especially given that his opponents are a disgraced former Governor (Cuomo) and a sort of gimmick-based candidate (Sliwa). Even given Mamadani’s leftward politics and ethno-religious profile, this field of candidates should suggest he should be the favorite. The fact that it is a three-way race helps him with the math as well.
There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of speculative “analysis” laid down about what a Mamdani win means for national politics.
To which I would note the following blast from the past.
Not to pick on Nate Silver (and yes, it was foolish), it is just that this bit of punditry sticks in my head and was easy to quickly find. He was not the only person saying such things at the time.
Here’s a Politico piece along those lines: New York mayor offers national Dems a hand in 2024.
Nearly 18 months ago, after winning a crowded primary, Adams declared himself the future of the Democratic Party. And since he became mayor in January, Adams ratcheted up his role in national politics — hosting President Joe Biden to tout their shared vision on reducing crime, pushing for New York City to host the next Democratic National Convention and penning an op-ed advising Democrats on how to win back working-class voters.
[…]
Adams, a former police officer who was raised in a low-income household by a single mother, could prove a potent messenger for Democrats elsewhere in the country who struggle to talk convincingly about crime. And his broad support of policing and public safety dovetails with Biden’s and Jeffries’ stances.
And yet… (source).
Let’s all remember that Rudy Giuliani was going to build a national political following on the foundation of his mayoralty, having been “America’s Mayor” on 9/11. We all know how that turned out (and note his approval rating in the graphic above in 2000, his penultimate year in office). Michael Bloomberg and all his money weren’t able to turn his time in office into a serious presidential run, either.
Indeed, let’s note that most NYC mayors leave office with pretty poor approval. It is a hard job.
So, might there be something to learn from Mamdani’s youthful optimism or how he has used social media for campaigning? Perhaps. But be very, very wary of anyone who tries to tell you that he is the foregone future of the Democratic Party or some signal of a massive leftward turn.
It will be interesting to see how his term in office goes, but he is promising a lot that will be hard to deliver, and, as a general matter, New Yorkers seem to love to hate the Mayor over time.
There used to be a columnist and sports radio host in Dallas who, every Monday after a Cowboys loss or win, would declare “It’s overreaction Monday!” There is going to be a lot of overreaction this week; don’t fall for it.
Side note: it is kind of amusing, in a week wherein a lot of pundits are trying to tell us that the right move for Democrats is moderation, that the ostensibly more centrist candidate, Cuomo, is losing pretty badly. I don’t, for a moment, think that the median NYC voter is a Democratic Socialist, so maybe the simplistic analysis that many are engaged in is, I dunno, simplistic.
