Before I say anything else, and so that I am hopefully not misunderstood: I agree that Biden’s performance on Thursday night was horrible and I have called it “disastrous” on a number of times to a number of people. Moreover, I think that it increased the chances of a Trump victory (although as time goes on I am not sure it did so as much as I thought even yesterday). I understand the knee-jerk reaction of many that Biden needs to be replaced. I have seriously contemplated this myself. If I had been on a deadline to write a column for a major newspaper right after I watched that performance, I might have written a similar column. But since no one is paying me to provide my views, I decided to wait and think.
I think that the collective reaction of much of the commentariat was a collective burst of anxiety, which I fully understand. Anyone hoping for a Trump defeat was hoping for an energetic Joe Biden to perform well and convince voters on the fence in key swing states that Biden should get their vote. And, instead, Biden provided what all those commentators feared. (Is anyone actually surprised that a man of his age performed like that?).
Now, I would note, that it strikes me as highly unlikely that any of the columnists who wrote that Biden should go will end up voting for anyone other than Biden in November. Instead, their fears, which are understandable, are that some other group of voters somewhere will respond negatively. Again: that is a legitimate concern. And all the anxiety about a possible second Trump term turned to panic. A panic I fully understand.
And, as per my first paragraph, I agree that the debate was terrible for Biden. Still, I think that once the specific emotional responses fade the following will be what we, collectively, learned from Thursday night.
- Biden is old.
- Trump is a bombastic liar.
Let me note as well that most people have long made up their minds about their vote. But yes, as noted, the race is tight and I remain concerned that Trump’s energetic bravado, despite being a cavalcade of bullshit, will impress enough voters on the margin to make a difference in key states.
But, I will note, if a party panics over a singular one-and-a-half-hour performance and seeks to jettison three-and-a-half years of service (not to mention short-circuiting the candidate selection process), that will likely rattle a few marginal voters as well. If part of the concern is that Biden looks weak, I am not sure making the whole party look like it made a massive bad decision is going to make it look strong.
Put another way, in a race this tight, anything can matter, and pretending like a change will be mostly upside and staying put is mostly downside is all guessing and a gamble. I will fully admit I don’t know, but my instinct suggests that staying put is less risky.
But, more importantly, in terms of what will actually happen, this is where I point out how US parties work. Specifically: nothing will happen unless Joe Biden decides he wants to step down, and that strikes me as exceedingly unlikely.
As I have repeatedly noted about Trump since 2016: the party’s nominee is the leader of the party and the party is run by loyalists to the nominee (and this is especially true if that nominee wins the presidency). There is no party leadership that can make an independent decision. Quick! Who’s the chair of the DNC?
No googling!
Well, googling is fine, actually, because that was what I had to do (you know, the Political Science Ph.D. who writes about this stuff almost daily). I didn’t know it was Jamie Harrison (I mean, surely that bit of information has been in my head at some point, but it definitely didn’t stick). I will tell you what I did know: Joe Biden is who nominated Harrison for the job.
American parties are weak institutionally and they are organized around the presidential contest, which makes their nominee/a given sitting president the key actor in the party. Who in the DNC, or even an elected Democratic office-holder, is going to risk going out on a limb to confront Biden and tell him he has to go? More to the point, what are the odds enough of them will collectively do so? (No, you go first!).
Yes, Biden is an 81-year-old man who moves slowly and gave a terrible performance on Thursday.
He is also President of the United States, which makes him kind of hard to buck.
This is just reality.
Just like with Trump in 2016, when there were co-partisans who opposed him and conservative publications who called for him to go, the Democratic establishment, and Democratic voters, will fall back into line after this proximate panic is over.
The only way this doesn’t blow over is if Biden repeatedly turns in performances like Thursday night. I will also state that if the polls truly collapse and stay collapsed then there will be possible room to further this discussion. However, were I to bet, I would bet that the numbers don’t change all that much. I would note that Biden already put in a good performance at a rally in North Carolina and at an official White House event. Yes, teleprompters were involved, but his energy level and voice were back. This kind of thing will reassure enough people for things to progress as they have been.
There is not going to be a process to replace him.
I think this is going to be like Trump’s Access Hollywood tape. It will cause panic for supporters, bolster the confidence of opponents, but ultimately simply serve to confirm what everyone already thought.
I would note, just for the record, that going into Thursday, the popular vote was a toss-up and Nate Silver’s model gave Trump a huge advantage in the Electoral College. So the metric for the effects of the debate will be how much that kind of model changes.
This is not me excusing Thursday night. It is decidedly not me wearing rose-colored glasses. I just think that the following is true:
- One event is not as powerful as it can feel in the moment.
- Most people have made up their minds and little will change them.
- Yes, the margins matter.
- The structure of US political parties means Biden will be on the ballot in November.
On balance, we went into Thursday night with a tight race that favored Trump. I think we are still largely in that same place. As always, if the evidence changes I will reevaluate my position.
Let me conclude that making major strategic decisions in the context of anxious panic is probably not a good idea.
