As the Federal Government enters its thirty-first day, it’s clear that Democrats are united in their opposition to the plan put on the table by President over the weekend:
What they’re saying: Senior White House officials told Axios their strategy — conceived largely by Jared Kushner and Vice President Mike Pence — was to get Trump’s “compromise” immigration bill through the Senate with an overwhelming vote and then pressure House Democrats to break from Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
But the Democrats have a consensus: No immigration talks until the government is back open. Even the moderates who sometimes break with the party, including Sens. Joe Manchin and Chris Coons, are sticking with leadership on this, for now at least.
- White House officials and Republicans close to leadership have privately admitted to Axios, since Trump’s Saturday announcement, that they don’t see how they win over the seven Senate Democrats they need to support this bill.
- Democrats are blunt. Steve Elmendorf, one of the top Democratic lobbyists in Washington D.C., told Axios, “Why would any Senate Democrat vote for a bill that was not negotiated with any Senate Democrat?” (Kushner and Pence consulted Democrats, but they weren’t at the negotiating table; this is a Trump offer.)
- “I think it’s totally impossible,” Elmendorf said, when asked if he saw any chance of seven Senate Democrats backing Trump’s offer.
- “This could be a basis to have a meeting. … He should have another meeting and present this offer, and let them talk about what they’re willing to do.”
Some analysts argued on the Sunday shows that Trump’s proposal was aimed mainly at moderate Democrats in the House, such as members of the so-called House “Problem Solvers Caucus” that he met with last week and Senators such as Joe Manchin and Doug Jones, who arguably somewhat more conservative than the rest of their colleagues. Based on the initial reactions we’re seeing, though, there doesn’t appear to be any movement of consequence at all on the Democratic side and, most importantly, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have remained united throughout the shutdown as Republican efforts to drive a wedge between the two have largely failed. There is some indication, meanwhile, that we’re likely to see some kind of counterproposal from the Democrats when Congress reconvenes on Tuesday. In all likelihood, though that proposal is likely to be basically the same as the response we’ve seen since the President’s speech, namely that the government should be reopened before there is any negotiation over immigration issues, and that such negotiations should include not just temporary solutions to the twin problems of the beneficiaries of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protective Status (TPS) programs but permanent ones, as well as broader negotiations on other immigration issues such as border security and the status of the 11 million or more undocumented immigrants in the United States, many of whom did not get here via illegal border crossings.
On the Republican side of the aisle, meanwhile, Senate Republicans, many of whom were showing signs of cracking last week, have lined up behind the President’s proposal, which the Senate will be voting on this week. In all likelihood, the measure will fail because it will fail to get the sixty votes needed to invoke cloture. The GOP knows this, of course, but it’s clear that this entire strategy is political rather than being anything aimed at having a realistic chance of reopening the government and that they are hoping that the President’s proposal will somehow turn the political tide on Democrats:
WASHINGTON — President Trump attacked Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday for rejecting his proposal to end the partial government shutdown, as he and Republican leaders in Congress sought to put Democrats on defense, a place they have rarely been during the shutdown stalemate.
In a series of morning tweets, Mr. Trump said Ms. Pelosi had behaved “so irrationally” in spurning his offer to restore the temporary protections he took away from some undocumented immigrants in exchange for $5.7 billion for a border wall. He also pushed back against conservative critics who called the plan amnesty for immigrants who came to the United States illegally.
Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, plans to bring up legislation as early as Tuesday that would wrap Mr. Trump’s proposal into a broader package that would include billions of dollars in disaster relief and immediately reopen the government, an aide said. The move is intended to ratchet up pressure on Democrats, who have insisted they will not negotiate with Mr. Trump until the shutdown is over.
“President Trump has put forward a serious and reasonable offer to reform parts of our broken immigration system and reopen government,” Representative Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader, said on Twitter. “The moment now turns to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. The country is watching.”
But there was little indication from Democrats, who have denounced Mr. Trump’s plan as “hostage taking,” that they would abandon that position.
“If he opens up the government, we’ll discuss whatever he offers, but hostage taking should not work,” Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, told reporters in New York on Sunday, adding, “It’s very hard to negotiate when a gun is held to your head.”
With the shutdown now in its fifth week, and 800,000 federal employees still furloughed or working without pay, pressure is rising on both Republicans and Democrats to end it. If it lasts until Friday, Congress will be forced to reckon with another grim milestone: Affected workers will miss their second paycheck.
As Republicans go on offense in the Senate, Democrats will stay on offense in the House, where they have already passed a string of government funding bills that Mr. McConnell — who has largely remained on the sidelines during the shutdown debate — has refused to take up. On Wednesday, Ms. Pelosi plans to bring up a package of six bills to fund shuttered government agencies, ignoring Mr. Trump’s requests.
The measures gained approval last year from Republicans on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees; in effect, Ms. Pelosi will be daring Republicans to vote against their own legislation. Democrats will also begin talking more about their own vision for border security — a shift in strategy for a party that has focused mostly on the economic and personal toll of the shutdown.
But there was little indication from Democrats, who have denounced Mr. Trump’s plan as “hostage taking,” that they would abandon that position.
“If he opens up the government, we’ll discuss whatever he offers, but hostage taking should not work,” Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, told reporters in New York on Sunday, adding, “It’s very hard to negotiate when a gun is held to your head.”
With the shutdown now in its fifth week, and 800,000 federal employees still furloughed or working without pay, pressure is rising on both Republicans and Democrats to end it. If it lasts until Friday, Congress will be forced to reckon with another grim milestone: Affected workers will miss their second paycheck.
As Republicans go on offense in the Senate, Democrats will stay on offense in the House, where they have already passed a string of government funding bills that Mr. McConnell — who has largely remained on the sidelines during the shutdown debate — has refused to take up. On Wednesday, Ms. Pelosi plans to bring up a package of six bills to fund shuttered government agencies, ignoring Mr. Trump’s requests.
The measures gained approval last year from Republicans on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees; in effect, Ms. Pelosi will be daring Republicans to vote against their own legislation. Democrats will also begin talking more about their own vision for border security — a shift in strategy for a party that has focused mostly on the economic and personal toll of the shutdown.
This comes, of course, in the face of polling that shows that the majority of Americans blame the President for the shutdown, which seems fitting considering that he said that he would be proud to own a shutdown if it occurred prior to when it started. So far at least, those same polls do not show the blame rubbing off on Congressional and Senate Republicans but it seems as though it’s only a matter of time before that happens, especially if the damage to the President ends up being a long-term problem, which certainly seems possibly the longer the shutdown goes on. The problem with that is two-fold.
First of all, the Democrats seem to be taking the perfectly reasonable position that they are willing to negotiate regarding immigration issues, including border security, but that the government needs to be reopened first. As I’ve said before this seems to me to be a perfectly reasonable position and, as the stories about Federal Government workers trying to do things like pay bills and provide for their families while not getting paid, whether they’re working or not, it strikes me that public opinion is likely to stay on their side. Part of the reason for that, of course, is that this shutdown is happening not because of spending issues, or because of the budget deficit, national debt, or some other fiscal issue. It’s happening because one party, the President of the United States is essentially holding the Federal Government hostage over a policy issue that is, at best, tangentially related to budget issues themselves and certainly not related to the spending that would be allocated to departments and agencies other than the Department of Homeland Security. We saw the same thing when Ted Cruz and a handful of House Republicans tried unsuccessfully to use a shutdown to target the Affordable Care Act. This time its an equally quixotic attempt to get money for a border wall that is never going to be built, that isn’t needed, and that Mexico isn’t going to pay for. To that, the President has now added DACA and TPS. As I said on Saturday, these are all important policy issues but it’s not justification for shutting down the government, assuming there is any such justification. No President. Senator or Member of Congress should be permitted to hold government funding hostage over a policy position. Today it’s a Republican refusing to reopen the government if he doesn’t get his way on immigration. How will the GOP react if a Democrat did the same thing over a policy idea they oppose? If the President wants to negotiate an immigration deal that includes border security, then he can do so after the government has been reopened. Given the reality of the situation, this isn’t where we find ourselves but it’s certainly where we should be.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, we have the President on video saying that he would not only welcome a shutdown but that he would gladly own it in order to get a measly $5.7 billion for a wall that will never be completed and which doesn’t address real issues regarding illegal immigration and drug running. Unless Democrats totally mess things up politically, which they have not done as of yet, then it seems clear that public opinion is likely to continue holding the President responsible for a shutdown that shows no sign of ending soon. As I said the other day, perhaps Democrats should approach this Presidential offer a bit more openly and take it as an invitation to open negotiations. Putting a counterproposal on the table would be the best way to do that, but reopening the government ought to be at the top of that list before anything else is even discussed.
