Dueling Blockades
Iran has fired on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
AP (“Iranian gunboats fire on tanker in Strait of Hormuz as Iran reimposes restrictions“):
The dueling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz lurched into uncharted waters on Saturday. The United States pressed ahead with its campaign to choke off Iranian ports and Iran reversed an initial move to reopen the waterway, firing on a ship attempting to pass.
Confusion over the critical chokepoint threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed conflict, even as mediators expressed confidence a new deal was within reach.
Iran’s joint military command said on Saturday that “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control of the armed forces.” It warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Two gunboats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said on Saturday. It reported the tanker and crew as safe, without identifying the vessel or its destination. TankerTrackers.com reported vessels were forced to turn around in the strait, including an Indian-flagged super tanker, after they were fired on by Iran.
Meanwhile . . .
I certainly am.
Why would he keep declaring victory when Iran can so easily take it away from him? Is it dementia? Or his native stupidity? Is Hegseth and or his ‘negotiators’ lying to him? Is he insane? Is he trying to manifest victory? Is this some kind of fantasy or hallucination? Even by the very, very low standards Trump has set, this makes no sense.
It feels to me like some combination of the above – some dementia, a great deal of stupidity, and underlings toadying – but I think underneath it all is fear. He’s a moron but he has good instincts for power, its waxing and its waning. He knows he’s stepped in a bear trap, he keeps trying to shake it off and he can’t, and it scares him. Now, a raccoon in a similar spot would chew its leg off to escape. Trump’s cankles are too meaty to chew through, so he’s going to have to find a scapegoat. Could/should be Bibi, but I imagine he’ll drive the bus over Vance some more. It won’t make any sense, but then, what does?
@Michael Reynolds: I think he believes he has a bigger megaphone. At least with some of the people of the world. The message will have very little impact with the people of Iran, for instance, but that doesn’t matter.
He still has the biggest megaphone in the US, so he’s gonna use it to tell people we won. And there will be people who believe it, along with people who will say it whether or not they believe it.
@Michael Reynolds: “Why would he keep declaring victory when Iran can so easily take it away from him?”
He’s gotten more from ‘always be lying’ than all but a few dozen people in his lifetime.
And remember, even now, with the whole sh*tstorm, the media still treats him better than Biden.
@Michael Reynolds:
Desperate attempts to maintain his self-image (mainly) with a more than a bit of insider trading thrown in.
I’m good with him lying about winning, but then you’re supposed to quit. And he didn’t. Why did he maintain the blockade of Iranian ports after they opened the Strait?
I don’t know, all I can think is “Schrödinger’s Strait”
Man, those Iranians can do so much with 0% of a navy. Imagine if they had 1% of it!
His whole career, he has simply said what he wants to be true. He is now doing that with Iran, but the problem is that, unlike Trump steaks, Trump Vodka, Trump wine, or Trump University, there are profound consequences to these fabulations.
@Michael Reynolds:
Wishcasting. He/we’re are living in a García Márquez moment of magic realism. If he wishes hard enough the people that matter will believe it, therefore it’s true. Creating his own reality or alternative truth has been the MO of his life and he usually gets away with it, particularly when he’s president because of the leverage. Mostly his opponents move on, with Iran that’s denied him as they have the leverage. It also shows in the futility of his attacks on the Pope, someone with whom, he has no leverage.
@Steven L. Taylor: he clicks the heels of his ruby Florsheims, closes his eyes and chants “There’s no place like Hormuz, there’s no place like Hormuz”.
Maybe we are all swept up in the great man theory of history and consequently give Trump more deference than is his due. The Dow Jones, which represents steady, solid blue chip companies, is up 44.58% over the last five years. During the same time frame, Bitcoin is up 52.17%. Bitcoin has no products, makes nothing, and has no concrete manifestation. If bull-shit works that well, somebody is going to come along and use it. Hence a Trump marketer of Trump casinos, vodka, steaks, etc. We, our system, has built the platform that makes Trump inevitable. Look how the markets for petroleum and equities jumped in the last few days in response to Trump’s proclamations. We all need to unsubscribe from bullshit.
@Slugger:
Late stage capitalism.
@Michael Reynolds:
Because he enjoys the bits of praise he gets (mostly imagined) for achieving victory.
He likes power, but I don’t think he has good instincts for it. He’s mean, he enjoys hurting people, and he’s great at inviting others to enjoy it with him. This translates into electoral success, but not actually power.
I think we saw this during Covid, when the Republicans turned against Trump Administration’s only accomplishment — Operation Warp Speed and the very speedy vaccine. Trump couldn’t bring the Republicans along towards praising him, so in the end he joined them in antivax shit and made buddy-buddy with RFKJr. That’s not power — at least not power he can control.
What has Trump accomplished? Is there anything that he has used his power to actually get done? His underlings have accomplished a lot, but he’s just been there, vibing, and connecting with the worst America has to offer. He likes the activity, he likes the noise and he likes the praise, but he doesn’t want to do anything, at least not enough to get it done.
Steve Miller has gotten his way and is as happy as a miserable little perpetually angry Nazi can be, but Trump?
The closest has been his ballroom, and the rubble that used to be the East Wing.
How many times has he brought up a great healthcare plan that will replace BarrackHusseinObamaCare? Or announced infrastructure week? He’s big on announcing, not so much on doing. Announcing feels good.
He would like to point and laugh at brown people being hurt. That’s it. And there are people who love him for it, and want to cheer him on.
As the great poet Louis Allan Reed wrote:
He’s chasing his next hit, and he’s just inviting us along for the ride. And a lot of Americans are right there with him, living life vicariously through their favorite bully.
@Gustopher:
He’s bullied universities, law firms and media companies into killing DEI and paying him off. He passed the BBB, protecting the billionaire class. He killed a lot of medical research and condemned Africans with HIV to death. He’s destroyed American prestige in the world. He’s forced trans people into the shadows. He’s deported tens of thousands of people. And it seems he’s found a way to profit directly from goosing the market, as well as sending choice contracts to cronies. And he has so dominated American political life that he occupies every square inch of media space.
He got re-elected despite having tried to overthrow the government and steal an election.
Lining his pockets, having his ass kissed and hurting vulnerable people is what he set out to do, and he’s done all of that.
Actually, he is good at amassing power, despite having zero qualifications for literally anything. Never has anyone risen so far with so little competence. He is the most powerful person on Earth, so I’d say he does understand power.
“When lies become common currency, truth loses its worth”—Jon Snow
Trump’s habit of reckless lying takes it’s toll. When words don’t mean anything anymore communication must be conducted through actions, using dead people for exclamation marks.
You know what this reminds me of? The way in the bunker that Hitler kept commanding non-existent armies.
BTW, when I’m on Twitter it’s a flood of people denouncing the ‘idiots’ who believe that Trump is not Triumphant.
The Baghdad Bob is strong there.
Just went over there again – you can *walk* on the Baghdad Bob.
Predicatable enough that Iran would reimpose blockade if the US blocakde continued.
However, it should be noted that after Iran announced “free passage”, it rapidly shifted to insisting all ships take the “nothern track” via Larak Island, and “register” with Iran for passage premission.
In short: both the US and Iran are trying to play games to gain an edge in leverage.
So now the Straits are closed to all parties.
The question is: which can take the economic hit for longer?
Monday is likely to be bad on the commodity markets = pressure on the US.
However, Iran is likely just a week to a fortnight away from having start shutting down wells if it cannot export, and a growing fiscal crunch.
Food imports are anothe factor, both for the GCC and Iran.
Iranian food prices are already reported as up 110% since the end of February; almost all the soyabean imports required for livestock fodder, and vegetable oils sources, come via the Straits.
Of grains, about about 75% of consumption is imported; of that the split seems to about 50/50 between Gulf routes and by rail and Caspian Sea shipping from Russia and Kazakhstan.
If US bombing resumes, we can expect strikes on the railways links to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and from the Caspian Sea ports to Tehran.
In response, Iran is likely to go all-out in attacks on civil infrastructure in the GCC.
Eseentially back to square one:
Trump has no obvious military means to decisively secure the Straits of Hormuz or prevent strikes on GCC targets.
Iran has no military capability to prevent ongoing US/Israeli bombing.
@Michael Reynolds:
“Steiner will secure the Straits!”