Evaluating Donald Trump’s Short List For Running Mates
The Trump campaign is out with its own 'short list' of potential running mates.
Just as the Clinton campaign has done, the Trump campaign has leaked what purports to be a ‘short list’ of potential Vice-Presidential running mates, and the first thing that jumps out is the extent to which the list has already been winnowed by potential candidates making it clear that they don’t wish to be considered as a running mate by Donald Trump:
Donald Trump’s performance the past month — the countless controversies and continual taunts of the GOP establishment — is dramatically narrowing his options for vice president.
With the Republican convention a month away and Trump approaching a critical decision on his No. 2, each week crosses more names off the list. Trump has bashed star Republican Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico and ignored the advice of senators like Bob Corker of Tennessee, who might have brought valuable foreign policy and congressional experience to the ticket. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has ruled out the post (even as he reconsiders running for reelection), while South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst — both well-regarded GOP figures who might improve Trump’s dismal standing among women and minorities — have all but done the same.
And Gov. John Kasich, who might have helped Trump in must-win Ohio and heal wounds with the party establishment, can’t even bring himself to support the presumptive nominee.
“It’s not going to make it easier” to select a running mate, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota said of Trump’s recent behavior. The Senate’s No. 3 Republican, Thune himself has been mentioned as a potential running mate. “There are probably some good options for him. The question is: Are there people for whom he is a good option?”
John Weaver, who served as the campaign strategist for Kasich’s presidential bid, was more blunt: “I can’t imagine a truly credible person agreeing to be his running mate, because it would be the end of his or her political career.”
Ironically, the presumptive nominee’s own toxicity is making the job of finding a vice presidential nominee that much easier, because the short list is so short. Multiple high-level Republican sources said it is topped by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions a distant third and Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin also in the mix.
Christie and Gingrich are both skilled communicators who could perform credibly on the convention stage and in a head-to-head debate with their Democratic counterpart in the fall. Both also bring the political experience Trump lacks. But there’s another, simpler reason why these two white men, both more representative of the Republican Party’s past than its future, have emerged as finalists: They actually want the job.
Trump’s campaign declined to comment. But during the primary campaign, he said that he wants a vice president who knows the Capitol and can help him pass an agenda.
“I want to have somebody who can deal with Congress, who gets along with Congress, who is a Washington person,” he said at a town hall in April.
But if he changes his mind and looks beyond the Beltway, Christie and Fallin are believed to be high on his list.
Fallin was among a handful of supportive red-state governors to meet with Trump in New York this week. She’s expressed a willingness to join the ticket and could help the presumptive nominee with women, three-quarters of whom disapprove of him, according to an ABC News poll.
Trump has also courted a number of Southern governors, including Nathan Deal of Georgia, Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, Bill Haslam of Tennessee and Phil Bryant of Mississippi. Should any of them be added to the ticket, though, they would do little to broaden Trump’s appeal beyond his base. None has been tested on the national stage.
More centrist GOP governors, like Michigan’s Rick Snyder, whose state the campaign views as a critical piece of its electoral math puzzle, and Maryland’s Larry Hogan have refused to even endorse Trump.
Sessions, the first senator to endorse Trump and one of his strongest defenders, said he’s ready if the phone rings.
“I’d consider it, certainly. I don’t know if I could help him. He needs someone that would be an asset to the ticket who could be a great president,” Sessions said. “There are a lot of people better than I out there.”
That may be true on paper, but the options are dwindling.
Keeping in mind the possibility that other names may be added to the list before next month’s convention and that, Trump being Trump, the idea of expecting the unexpected is always the watch word, it’s worth taking a look at these four names and what each of them might bring to the ticket. Before we do that, though, we need to layout what it is that Trump may need in a running mate and what weaknesses a potential nominee should fill to make the ticket as strong as possible heading into the fall. Right off the bat, the fact that Trump has no real political experience and little experience dealing with Capitol Hill or the Federal bureaucracy suggests that he would benefit strongly from picking someone who has experience dealing with both and has at least some relationship with people on Capitol Hill that would allow them to serve as both an adviser about how to get an agenda through Congress and a liaison to Congress itself. Similarly, Trump lacks experience in the foreign policy arena and in dealing with the military and could benefit from a Vice-President with experience in this area that could add ‘gravitas’ to the ticket that would potentially alleviate the concerns of the foreign policy community, although that is largely something that could be accomplished in the selection of a Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Adviser and their staff. Finally, and perhaps most importantly for Trump given the recent problems in the Republican Party over his impending nomination, which continue to include quixotic efforts to bar him winning the nomination, a potential nominee should probably be someone who can help mend the widening rift in the Republican Party, although that may be reaching the point where it is beyond repair.
With that in mind, let’s look at the four names Trump has apparently settled on, keeping in mind that he could add to or delete from this list going forward.
Chris Christie
On some level, it’s not surprising that Christie tops the list that Trump is considering. Trump has always taken pains to cultivate a close relationship with whomever happens to be sitting in the Governor’s office for obvious business reasons, and Christie has been no different in that regard. That’s one reason why it wasn’t entirely surprising when Christie became one of the first nationally prominent Republicans to endorse Trump back in February. While Christie has become something of a butt for jokes since that endorsement, it was really nothing more than a continuation of the relationship the two have had for some time now, and it’s rather obvious that the two men do seem to get along fairly well. That being said, it’s unclear what Christie would bring to a ticket that would actually help in November. While Christie does have experience dealing with the a legislature at the state level, he does not really have many contacts on Capitol Hill that would help Trump push an agenda through Congress, nor does he have real foreign policy experience. Potentially, I suppose, Christie’s links to the “establishment” wing of the GOP could potentially help to heal some of the rifts that have developed in the wake of Trump’s ascendancy. At the same time, though, Christie has turned off significant elements of the conservative wing of the party sufficiently that selecting him could widen the rift rather than helping to close it. Notwithstanding those negatives, though, perhaps the biggest argument in Christie’s favor is the fact that he would be excellent at the ‘attack dog’ mode traditionally played by Vice-Presidential mode. Of course, Trump has shown that he prefers to be his own attack dog so it’s unclear if he’ll care much about a candidate who can do what he already does for himself.
Newt Gingrich
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has been insinuating himself into Trump’s inner circle for months now via cable news and other appearances in which he was very praising of Trump’s campaign and highly critical of both the other candidates that Trump was running against and the efforts of other Republicans to stop Trump from winning the nomination. The fact that he is apparently near the top of Trump’s list would seem to indicate that Gingrich’s apparent plan worked, the question is whether Trump would be willing to bring someone nearly as vain as he is on the ticket. Admittedly, Gingrich is a good fit in many respects, most notably in the fact that there are few people more familiar with the intricacies involved in negotiating one’s way around Capitol Hill, cutting through Congressional red tape, and doing what needs to get done to get legislation passed. Indeed, there are few people in the country more experienced in that area than the former Speaker of the House notwithstanding the fact that it’s been nearly 20 years since he served on Capitol Hill. By virtue of his time in House leadership, Gingrich also has at least some familiarity with foreign policy and has he has written extensively about that issue since leaving Congress. Finally, Gingrich’s ties to the conservative wing of the GOP still seem strong enough to potentially help heal the rift in the party at least to some extent. On the negative side, Gingrich’s personal life has as many interesting detours as Trump’s does, and selecting him would lead to inevitable jokes that would both resurrect the old stories about Gingrich and Trump’s own long and controversial history both while he has been married and in between relationships. Finally, at 73 Gingrich is a bit on the old side for a running mate and would be 81 at the end of a hypothetical two-term Trump Presidency, this is hardly reassuring in the case of a candidate who just turned 70 himself and whose judgment is already being questioned.
Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions
On some level, it’s surprising that Senator Sessions isn’t higher up on the list. In addition to the fact that he was the first person in either the House or the Senate to endorse Trump, thus lending some sense of credibility to a campaign that at the time still was not being taken seriously by the powers that be in the Republican Party, he’s also been consulting with Trump on immigration and related issues since long before Trump actually tossed his hat in the ring. By all accounts, the two seem to get along about as well as you can expect a real estate developer from New York and a very conservative Senator from Alabama to get along, and Sessions would seem to bring a lot to the ticket. He has served in the Senate since the late 1990s, for example, and would obviously be able to help navigate the halls of the Capitol. His service on the Senate Armed Services Committee brings with it both knowledge regarding foreign and military policy and contacts with experts in the field that would be helpful to a hypothetical, albeit unlikely, Trump Administration. Finally, Sessions has ties to the conservative wing of the party that would help heal the rifts in the party created by Trump himself. On the negative side, Sessions record does include positions and statements on racial issues that were sufficient to block his nomination to become a U.S. District Court Judge back in the late 1980s. Given Trump’s own problems with minority groups and the importance of those groups to winning the election, adding Sessions to the ticket could prove problematic.
Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin
It’s hard to know what to say about Governor Fallin largely because, unlike fellow Governors such as Nikki Haley, she has flown under the radar during her time in office. Since she’s never served in Congress, she wouldn’t really be a fit for a running mate able to help push legislation through the House and Senate. She also appears to lack any discernible foreign policy experience and seems unlikely to have the kind of influence to heal intra-party rifts that Trump seems to need. She does qualify as an ‘outsider’ in the same way Trump is an outsider, but Trump himself has made clear that he thinks it would be best for him to select a nominee who is something of an insider. For that reason, I’d mark Fallin as a long shot, keeping in mind that there very well could be others not on this short list, such as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott or Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, who could replace her quite easily and who arguably would bring more to the ticket.
On a final note, it’s a worth keeping in mind a few things about running mates when it comes to both Trump and Clinton. In reality, there’s little evidence that a Vice-Presidential nominee makes a significant difference to the fortunes of a Presidential campaign. With the exception of John F. Kennedy’s selection of then Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson in 1960 there are few cases where it can be credibly said that the selection of a running mate was decisive in determining the outcome of the election. Even John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin in 2008, widely seen as one of the most mistaken in recent history, probably didn’t change the outcome of the election very much since it’s unlikely any Republican ticket could have won in 2008 thanks to the legacy of eight years of George W. Bush. Second, a Vice-President only does what a President allows them to do. Outside of breaking ties in the Senate and keeping apprised of the President’s health and fitness for office, the Constitution gives the office no authority whatsoever. Finally, and despite these caveats, the selection of a running mate is often the first example we get of the Presidential nominees’ decision making process. By making this selection, the nominee is saying ‘here is the person I believe would be best able to take over for me in the event the worst happened.’ That’s why the Palin selection was so bad for John McCain, not because it hurt the ticket but because it showed McCain’s own appallingly irresponsible decision making in the selection of a running mate who was obviously manifestly unqualified for the position. Both Clinton and Trump should keep that in mind as they go though this process.
Donald Trump has a short list of running mates because his tiny hands couldn’t hold a longer list.
Don’t forget that Paul Manafort, Trump’s advance man, has said that Trump wants a v.p. who will do the things Trump doesn’t want to do.
Manafort did not specify what those “things” might be.
@PJ:
For your delectation:
http://www.donaldtrumphastinyhands.com
Trump has to be careful in his choice because both Democrats and many Republicans will be looking for an opportunity to impeach a president Trump. He needs the equivalent of a poison pill – a Veep so objectionable that Senate Republicans and Democrats would see them as no real improvement.
@michael reynolds:
Wasn’t that what people said about Spiro Agnew?
Yep. A bad choice can hurt, but a good one won’t help a presidential candidate to mask deficiencies. Voters focus on the individual candidate, not the backup band.
The main priority should be to choose a VP candidate who won’t screw up. But even that may not matter much in Trump’s case, since he’s destined to screw up nicely on his own without any help.
^ “He needs the equivalent of a poison pill – a Veep so objectionable that Senate Republicans and Democrats would see them as no real improvement.”
Allen West?? 😀
Kim Jong-Un?
@steve s:
Well, they both have really bad hair.
@CSK:
Yeah, and look what happened. We knocked off Agnew first, got Ford in as Veep and then nailed Nixon.*
*An exceedingly glib and superficial account, not to be mistaken for actual history.
Wow, this is a tough call. You’ve got Chris Christie, who has a lower approval in his own state than Trump does nationally, and who’s going to face the scrutiny of the bridge closing trials right before the elections. You’ve got Jeff Sessions, who has a history of perceived racism that will only make Trump look closer to his white supremacist followers than he does today. Oh, and Newt. It’s as if Trump wants to run with someone so loathesome he looks good in comparison.
The question is whether Trump will chose based on strategy or on ego. If it’s the latter, expect Christie or someone else obsequious enough. If it’s the first, Gingrich.
(How in the hell did Trump emasculate Christie so quickly? Makes me think someone knows where someone else’s dead bodies are buried.)
P.S. Of course, there’s the ultra-super-duper crazy possibility: what if we impeach BOTH the POTUS and the VPOTUS?
@grumpy realist:
Maybe it’s just that Christie sees In Trump his last hope of resuscitating his career. It’s a very slim (no pun intended) hope, but it’s the only one he has.
@grumpy realist:
There are people who think this is what Paul Ryan is gambling will happen.
Just ran across a great epithet for Trump: “the Cheeto Hindenburg”.
@grumpy realist: Doesn’t that get us to President Ryan? Hmmm…
@Just ‘nutha ig’rant cracker: I see CSK beat me to it.
In reference to Trump, I’m reminded of what Charles Francis Adams said about William Jennings Bryan: “In one sense, he is scripturally formidable, since he is unquestionably armed with the jawbone of an ass.”
Mr. Trump has to pick someone that’s not only worse than he is, but will also heel, and follow his every demand.
Trump is just narcissistic enough to choose a woman, so he can try and peel votes from Mrs. Clinton.
At the same time he will most likely always be playing that male superiority card. Which means, not only a woman that will listen, but will be the image of the 1950’s submissive house wife(which most of this supporters pine for and reminisce about. )
No way he will ever accept someone that may overshadow in any way shape or form. Trump is the poster child, at least plays one of television, for the insecure male with size issues.
I just can not see Trump going for anyone smart, powerful, and looking to make a career for themselves. Especially! not with a woman. Even tho a woman would give him more a chance of getting more votes.
@Andrew:
John McCain to his advisers in 2008: “Find me a woman.”
Donald Trump to his advisers in 2016: “Find me a young and beautiful piece of asz.”
@Andrew: Does that mean we’re going to get La Palin again?
Dear God. Talk about history repeating itself as farce….
@grumpy realist:
Only if Trump wants to lose in a colossal landslide.
We were actually talking about this on Friday night, over pizza and beer – a kind of “just how crazy is he?” talk. And maybe it’s a sign of how much of both we were consuming but by midnight we decided he’d pick a sports figure or some other celebrity who’s sort of seen as past their prime without being actually washed up or a loser – which would be very key to Trump. Someone who’s being paid to run as his VP without doing more than looking at him with awe and respect.
It won’t be a politician. Even a tame, emasculated politician would make him look like an amateur by comparison. I’m half-way convinced that while he thinks he’d do a great job as President, he doesn’t really want to win. He’s done great by being the non-politician politician of the campaign, and bringing a real politician on board would insert a bit of reality into the bubble.
And remember: he wants free media publicity. What better way than by doing something completely off the rails?
He wants somebody who knows Congress and gets along with Congress? Did he really say that? Kinda kills the anti-establishment BS that a large percentage of Americans have fallen for.
I expect stunt casting for his VP candidate — someone so who shows us that Donald Trump thinks outside the box,many someone who combines the attributes of his closest advisors into one person.
I’m pretty sure his closest advisors are Chris Christie and Ben Carson. So, combining them, we’re looking for a fat black guy. When I think of fat black guys, I think Fat Albert, but Fat Albert isn’t real.
So, here’s my idea for a ticket — the beloved reality TV star who fires people and tells it like it is, teaming up with the beloved star of Fat Albert and (as a bonus) one of the most beloved TV dads of the 1980s. Someone America looks up to, and who will help blunt the “Trump is a racist supported by white supremacists” thing…
Trump/Cosby 2016.
@CSK:
Yes. That.
@grumpy realist:
Something along those lines.
With revisionist history, with black being white, or white being black. Selecting Mrs. Palin was not a bad thing all those years ago. (Well, to those who are genuinely sincere about political history it was.) After all being a successful reality star on a cable channel seems to be the echelon of celebrity these days…
It’s whether or not Mr. Trump and his team can find a woman who is quasi-qualified for being his Vice President, who has no larger picture for their future career, and/or just wants the limelight.
I am unsure if such a woman exists in the current political arena. Though, I am sure someone in the Trump camp/Republican party is scouring long and hard to find her.
Yes, Mr. Trump can select another male to run with.
With his comments about race, ethnicity, and religion… That leaves a whole lot of pasty older white men, and maybe one token minority willing to fall on their sword for short term goals/compensation.
Being the Republican party I can not exactly be shocked by this.
It will just be a reminder consciously or subconsciously of Bush/Cheney for voters. This again brings up the revisionist history/black hole of political history between Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama.
@NTITD: Dennis Rodman–or is that too far off the rails? The second thought that came to my mind was Charles Barkley–but he might show up the Donald in the same way that a career politician would.
What? Is Jan Brewer not available?
@Just ‘nutha ig’rant cracker: Nah, not Rodman. Way too out there. Some retired quarterback (gotta be football; a manly man sport) who played for a flyover country team, retired 10 to 15 years ago, got a paunch now but name still recognizable to football fans. Might not be a player; perhaps a highly respected coach.
I am serious, though, that selecting a politician is exactly what Trump won’t do. It’s the established thing to do – he’s all about not doing that. The minute he picks a politician, he’s tied to that politician’s past and policy statements. Picking a non-pol, he stays flying above the party.
Trump is now claiming he doesn’t need no stinking’ Republican Party to get elected.
Uh, what?
You know, his final piece of political theatre might be turning DOWN the nomination at the RNC, saying that they’re not treating him respectfully enough, and then storming off stage.
I wouldn’t put it past him. It would certainly get all the media eyeballs on him for a long time (which is all that he seems to deem important.)
The best chance for Republicans is for them to jettison Trump at the convention, draft Paul Ryan (who will, ‘oh so reluctantly’ accept the offer) and hope that his choice for VP (probably someone like Hley or Martinez) is enough to propel Republicans past Clinton, or at least limit the damage to their congressional majorities.
@al-Ameda: If the Republican Party is seen in any way to “jettison” Trump, I suspect we’ll see a real wingding of a convention.
And it’s not Trump the Secret Service should be protecting under those circumstances….
@grumpy realist:
Since he’s stated his intent to speak every night at the convention, he would wait till the final night to storm off the stage.
I still think he’ll accept the nomination and then bail a week or so later.
Christie seems like the logical choice. Ì imagine Jerry Jones has promised Trump he will help with the fundraising problem if Trump can keep Christie busy through most of football season and out of the Cowboys owners box. That display last year was beyond embarassing.
It’s amazing to me that you discuss Christie without even mentioning Bridgegate; and you discuss Gingrich without…. jeez, where do I even begin? How about the fact that he resigned from Congress amid an ethics investigation, a sex scandal, and the fallout from the disastrous impeachment of Bill Clinton? Or the fact that he’s an erratic bomb thrower prone to bizarre flights of fancy (remember the moon colony?).
Frankly, Newt has always struck me as a sort of mini-Trump himself. He’s one of the most openly, cartoonishly narcissistic politicians I’ve ever seen (he once said “People like me are what stand between us and Auschwitz”). And he’s more than willing to play racial politics, as when he referred to Obama as the “food stamp president” or when he accepted Dinesh D’Souza’s “Kenyan anti-colonial” theory.
It’s no wonder the entire GOP establishment temporarily panicked after he won the South Carolina primary in 2012. Of course it turned out to be a false alarm because of his inability to garner support outside the Deep South and his penchant for eventually self-destructing and alienating even his own supporters. I suppose, in hindsight, that Trump makes him look almost stable and competent by relative comparison, but it’s hard for me to believe that people would discuss him like he was some distinguished veteran pol with gravitas.
My money is on some homeless guy Trump finds under a pier on the Gulf Coast of Florida. Has to pay him to do it. Seriously, what rationally thinking politician is going to get on this ship of fools sailing to oblivion?
Trump has just hired the guy who ran Michele Bachmann’s 2012 campaign for the presidency.
I am not joking.
@CSK: I saw that Lewandoski was out, but I didn’t bother to read the article. Interesting.
@CSK:
Shoot. I had twenty bucks on Ivanka…