Fake Nikki Haley Boomlet Continues
The media's favorite Republican is doing better in some polls than the other candidates losing to Trump.
CBS News released a new poll last evening under the headline “Haley gains on Trump in New Hampshire while he continues to dominate in Iowa.”
Donald Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but Nikki Haley has consolidated much of the non-Trump vote and has emerged as the top alternative to him there. Among the top candidates, Haley gets the best marks on being seen as “likable” and “reasonable,” and she runs nearly even with Trump on being “prepared” — notable, considering he held the presidency. She has been running in part on electability and is now seen as the most electable of Trump’s challengers.
Meanwhile, Trump has consolidated his already commanding lead in Iowa, where likely caucus-goers overwhelmingly see him as a “strong leader,” where his backers say he “represents Iowa values,” and where he is boosted by an electorate in which nearly half say they are part of the MAGA movement.
Haley has been given a boost by New Hampshire’s more moderate electorate relative to Iowa. She has made inroads among self-described moderates and independents, running close to Trump among them now. (Independents can, and often do, vote in the GOP primary.) And it’s these groups who express more openness, in principle, to a candidate dissimilar to Trump, if he isn’t the nominee.
Asked to compare the candidates to the frontrunner, voters see Haley as the most different candidate from Trump in terms of personality. And about seven in 10 say that if the nominee is not Trump, they would prefer a candidate different than him in terms of personality.
Which is all swell. Until you see the actual numbers:
So . . . Trump remains the prohibitive favorite in both races. If the other “normal Republicans” in the poll, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, dropped out and all of their support transferred to Haley, she’d still be down four points in New Hampshire. And in distant third place in Iowa.
There remains no viable path to the nomination for Haley if Trump is in the race. And, even with Trump out of the race, we would presume the lion’s share of his supporters would shift to DeSantis and Ramaswamy, not Haley.
Indeed, the only really interesting thing here is the wild divergence in how the citizens of Iowa and New Hampshire rank the candidates. Presumably, the questions and polling methodology were the same. Yet, in Iowa, 84% prefer a MAGA candidate whereas only 60% do in New Hampshire.
Of late I see speculation about Haley as veep to Trump. Which would, IMHO, be a smart move on Trump’s part. But I can’t see it happening. Trump may want a woman, but he’ll want a toadie, and I don’t see him seeing Haley as sufficiently submissive. I think she’s running to set up for 2028, when we’re due for our regular two term (octannual?) change of party, and if so she won’t want Trump stink on her.
On Iowa v NH, interesting, but in 2020 Iowa was Trump +8, NH Biden +7
I wasn’t aware of the most recent numbers from NH and they are surprising. Trump is essentially the incumbent, at least in the minds of the base, and he is well under 50%? And Haley is at 29%? That’s within striking distance. Do I think she will win it? No. But it is within the realm of the possible.
A difference between Iowa and NH could be which electorate was polled. The IA caucuses are open only to registered Rs while the NH primary is open to independents. If the pollsters polled likely NH R primary voters, somewhere between a third and half might have been independents.
Regarding Haley’s polling in NH. It should be remembered that Haley doesn’t need to beat trump to damage him, Gene McCarthy didn’t beat Lyndon Johnson in 68, nor did McGovern beat Muskie in 72. The narrowness of their margins of victory is what lead to their downfalls. The question for Haley and trump, is how close does she need to be?
I am not surprised that Haley is nudging up in NH, I am seeing more signs with her name on them.
I also get about 5-8 pieces of direct mail from her campaign each week.
She doesn’t need to beat Trump, she just needs to embarrass him. If she gets within five points of him, the media narrative will be that he’s weak…and THAT will be a problem for him.
The media really wants a horserace, and she really wants to remain relevant, so it’s a match made in heaven.
I do see a path to the nomination for her, should Trump have to withdraw from the race for actuarial reasons — assuming that the Trumpistas are unwilling or unable to El Cid and/or Weekend At Bernie’s his corpse. And there’s enough of a chance of that an otherwise Quixotic run makes sense. Sometimes windmills just collapse, and if you’re out there on your horse with your lance, you win.
I think Gavin Newsom is kind of doing the same thing on the Democrats’ side, keeping a high profile, doing weird events (the Newsom-DeSantis debate was weird) and trying to show himself off to Biden delegates who might be less enthused about Harris or worry about Harris’ ability to connect.
Who are the 5% that like Ramaswamy though? That’s what baffles me more than anything. Are they just saying they like him while trying to get close enough that they can punch him in the face? I could respect that.
@Gustopher:
Given what Generative AI can do, are you sure they haven’t already?
The whole “race” this year reads like a thrilling NFL game with 15 seconds remaining, where one team is ahead by 40 points, and the other is trying to convert a 4th and 25 to get in position to kick a field goal.
@Gustopher:
Trump-only voters too embarrassed to admit that. It’s a coded vote. Or, in Monty Python terms, “Splunge!”
@Kathy: I think @Gustopher: is correct in that Haley, and to a lesser extent, Newsom, are positioning themselves as the obvious choice in the event that the respective leaders withdraw/are incapacitated/etc.
@Gustopher:
This is true of her, and it has been true of many, most of whom flamed out. But doesn’t anyone remember that Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Donald F*cking Trump were all laughed off as having no real chance to win but the media loved to do articles about them?
As I said before, I’m not predicting Halley is going to win, but I’m sure as hell not going to be over confident in my dismissal in an election where (and I repeat myself) Donald F*cking Trump, the Joke of the NYC business community, is running for his SECOND term.
@Jen:
I guess that’s a bit more likely than an NFL team forfeiting the game when they’re ahead by 40 points.
@Jen:
Yes, and it would be a bigger problem for her. The more she damages Trump, the more he and his cultists will turn against her.
Trump is the GQP’s best bet to defeat Joe Biden. Because on the outside chance Haley or anyone else wrestles the nomination away from Trump for any reason other than his death or debilitation, he and his minions will go scorched earth against the Republican Party.
@DK:
I get why you are saying this, but I’m betting that when he starts losing the cult will turn aside from Trump breathtakingly fast. Of the Trump 43%, half of that will suddenly never have known him. But it won’t really matter, because whoever takes his place will be more of the same. As I’ve been saying since 2015, Trump IS the Republican Party. This is who the base is and if they don’t have Trump, they will glom onto the next Jim Crow Fascist POS who comes along.
@MarkedMan:
What is this based on? Backlash to Trump caused a Blue Wave in 2018, then Trump lost the 2020 election by millions of votes. The stench of Trump and his endorsements and acolytes — including his Supreme Court judges — cost Republicans badly in 2022 and 2023 voting, allowing Democrats to defy Biden’s unpopularity.
Through it all, the MAGA cult is still right there.
Trump has been losing already. If he keeps losing, the deplorables will just keep doing what they’ve been doing: playing the victim, claiming it’s all rigged and fraudulent, and clinging even tighter to Dear Leader. They will be with Trump until he dies or voluntarily stands down and anoints a successor.
That successor will not be Nikki Haley unless she does serious penance, replete with bowing and scraping. She’s already being tarnished with the dreaded “establishment favorite” label. MAGA would abandon Trump for her without his blessing and while he’s attacking her for usurpation? Lol, no sir.
Haley is going nowhere. For Trump to pick her would be spectacularly dumb.
Think Bud Light and the tranny.