Friday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Friday, March 27, 2026
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45 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Trump says he’ll sign order directing DHS to pay TSA workers as shutdown drags on (ABC News)
So Republicans were wrong claiming the president could not pay TSA, as his critics said all along?
DHS shutdown breakthrough comes at cost for Republicans as funding fights nears end (Fox News)
Senate agrees to end shutdown for most of DHS (Politico)
Republicans could’ve accepted this earlier, pre travel chaos.
Summary of the world today courtesy of Heather Cox Richardson:
The Military and the Border:
A War Zone, Minus the War: One Year Later, Has the Military Really Secured the US-Mexico Border?
…
Trump is putting his signature on one dollar bills.
I am not joking.
@CSK:
How’s the world outside of rehab?
@CSK:
As I mentioned yesterday, it’s a potent argument for going cashless.
AI agents are getting out of hand
I occasionally still play with LLMs to see how they are changing. I’m still far from impressed. I’d thought to play with LLM based agents, but I don’t think that would be a good idea right now.
@Michael Reynolds:
Fine, thank you.
@Kathy:
I missed that. Sorry.
If we ever get close to AGI the oligarchs will strangle it. AGI would be able to form opinions, ethical frameworks, a moral philosophy. None of that is wanted by the oligarchs, they want control and AGI would be impossible to predict. It might decide the world needs fewer billionaires.
@CSK:
It was rather late in OTB time.
@Scott:
So true, and so lost on the MAGA minions who drive this change, as a consequence of entrenched provinciality, bounded by two vast oceans, and an incuriousity equally vast.
When the list goes to the Senate, I hope quite a few Senators stand up and say enough is enough.
Hegseth Strikes Two Black and Two Female Officers From Promotion List
It is clear that our incompetent, unqualified Secretary of Defense is racist, sexist, and a religious bigot.
Since the War-Not-War with Iran began three weeks ago, much scrutiny has been placed on Israel’s influence on Trump and his decision to initiate combat.
But perhaps there is a 2nd tail wagging the dog.
It is exceedingly curious, that Saudi Arabia would push for all out war, even as the other gulf states oil producers have their own production boxed in by the closure of the Hormuz Straits —- but for the fact, that Saudi Arabia itself has a backdoor for oil export via the Red Sea.
In fact, Saudi Arabia had been expanding its east-west pipeline to the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea, but was still running under the 7 million bbd capacity, at a more recent output of 2.5 million bbd.
Since the war began, output from that pipeline has increased to 4+ million bbd. There’s still room for expansion. As MBS’s neighbors languish, Saudi Arabia is enjoying higher prices as demand soars. It has been pointed out that the Red Sea is not immune from attack by Iran. But the sheer distance involved makes defense easier.
Saudi prince is said to push Trump to continue Iran war in recent calls
MBS Labels Iran War a ‘Historic Opportunity’, Urges Trump to Deploy Troops Amid Growing Saudi Oil Threats
——
Saudi Surges Oil Exports From Yanbu Toward 5 Million Target
@Scott:
What? Blacks and women aren’t welcome to The Army of God?
@Scott:
Coincidentally, the latest from Ann Telnaes
@Scott:
A graphic and completely embarrassing guide to Hegseth’s misguided body art:
The tattooed Secretary of Defense: Here is all of Pete Hegseth’s ink, and what it means
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Pentagon Pete’s Staff Mock Him With Brutal New Nickname
If I recall, Robert McNamara was a member of Kennedy’s “whiz kids” who served as advisory to his Presidency. McNamara was by all reports, smart, but caught up in a hapless war, hamstrung by lack of precedent.
On the other hand. Hegseth is dumb. Really dumb, as a rock, ignoring our multi-generational learning curve, to entrap this nation in another no-win conflict, propelled by his ego and possibly unresolved “daddy issues.”
A more apropos reference for Hegseth might come from the recently departed Donald Rumsfeld, who too, ignored our national learning curved, signing on to an Administration’s BIG LIES, and overseeing another intractable debacle that eroded national security and prestige. So perhaps a better behind-the-back name for Hegseth, given his penchant for drink, might be “Rummy Dummy.”
@Rob1:
Saudi Arabia has always been willing to fight its battles to the very last American.
This is not cool…
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/03/trump-fcc-prohibits-import-and-sale-of-new-wi-fi-routers-made-outside-us/?comments-page=1#comments
Brendan Carr appears to relish his role as Trump asswipe.
@Rob1: What I like about “Dumb McNamara” as a nickname is that even if he isn’t smart enough to understand the “McNamara” part, he will understand the “Dumb” bit. It’s an insult with built in redundancy.
I’m confused.
The headline says: Five Guys CEO says he gave a $1.5m bonus to his workers so he wouldn’t get shot in the back
Ok, but then the piece states there are 1,500 stores in the US. So, is that $1,000 per store, each with several employees? That’s not much of a bonus.
Related, British Airways is offering pilots a 1% (one percent) bonus for reducing fuel burn. The target is set as “Pilots would need to collectively cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60,000 tons above 2025 levels to unlock the payout.”
The piece mentions taxiing procedures (taxiing on one engine instead of 2), and fuel load planning.
The latter worries me.
Planes are afflicted with a variant* of the rocket equation: if you add fuel, you need to add more fuel to carry the fuel you added first. Typically the fuel taken onboard accounts for taxi on both ends, the fuel needed for the trip, extra for holding patterns if necessary, extra for diversion if necessary, extra for at least one go-around, and a bit more as a reserve just in case. So, it’s a complicated calculation. I assume there’s software that deals with this.
My worry is that pilots might underestimate the necessary fuel, and wind up crashing after the engines flame out during a diversion in bad weather or some other emergency. It doesn’t seem likely, but we’ve seen plenty of accidents because the pilot wanted to land right now.
Airlines have long experience with fuel burn. Management should set the procedures for how to reduce it, if possible, with input from pilots who have to implement them. Leaving up to the pilots doesn’t seem like a good idea.
Also, 1% isn’t much of a bonus. I wouldn’t risk a refueling diversion and much less a crash over 1% of my salary.
@Rob1:
I think this is a probably a misreading of the Saudi position.
The Saudis had recently been undertaking a sustained effort to improve realtions with Iran, including using China as a mediator.
The initial reporting after the war started was that the Saudis were surprised and furious that Israel and the US had gone for an all-out “regime kill” effort.
They seem to have expected a repeat of last years airstrikes: limited to some nuclear and military sites, with US carrier aircraft making it easier to hit such targets in eastern Iran. And accepted the US actions on that basis.
That the objective was coercing Iran in further negotiations with the US, NOT the scale of strikes that would inevitably trigger an Iranian counter-punch against the GCC and at Hormuz.
The EW Petroline to Yanbu cannot carry all of Saudi Arabia’s exports of oil, let alone natural gas, chemicals, fertilisers, etc.
The Saudi shift to a more belligerent stance now is similar to that of the UAE and other GCC states. For the simple reason that now the US has started this war, an outcome that leaves Iran as de facto victor, with control over Hormuz, is horrifying for the GCC.
They have a reasonable expectation that the US, having idiotically created this mess, should not walk away and leave them up to their necks in sh!t.
@Kathy:
I wouldn’t count Saru on Star Trek: Discovery as a white man. He’s played by a white man, but he’s one of the most alien regular characters on Star Trek — he is motivated by fear and he isn’t ashamed of it. He’s the outsider character that white men might recognize parts of him in themselves, but they can never identify with him or aspire to be more like him.
He’s not straight white male representation.
This brings up the obvious, but less important question of Spock*, and I think we have to apply the bigoted southerner test — McCoy! I think the incessant references to Spock as a pointy-eared half-breed clearly show that Spock is not white.
As Kirk said in “Balance of Terror”: “Bigotry has no place on the bridge, leave that in your quarters or in sick bay.”
Would McCoy insult Bajorans to their face? The most human of the various alien species, but with nose ridges and a different religion. My guess is that he would view them like Jews, but I have no idea whether he would count Jews as white.
(I love McCoy, but there was no HR department on Kirk’s Enterprise.)
—-
*: there’s no shortage of straight white male representation in TOS.
@JohnSF:
They embraced Trump. They loved Trump. At last, an American president without morals or ethics, a venal man who can be bought, a needy narcissist who can be flattered. I mean, how was MBS to guess that a moron with great power could manage things to badly as to leave them impoverished, hungry and reduced to using Evian to flush their toilets?
A belated reply to Gustopher from yesterday:
IMHO, because the US is not the only player at the table.
There is the GCC, and in particualr one aspect of that: the Saudi-Pakistan alliance.
Which actually has nuclear weapons, and a very large army whose nearest formations are 350 miles from the Straits of Hormuz on a land route.
There are also India and China.
Both of which may have fairly good relations with Iran, but may well have doubts about an eschatologically inclined regime controlling the straits, and on course to cecome hegemon of the Gulf.
The same applies, to a lesser extent, to Turkey and Europe.
None of these have any great desire to jam themselves into this wasp’s nest if they can avoid it.
But the Gulf is so enormously economically important that vital interest may overcome reluctance.
If the Iranian regime has any sense, they will not push their luck.
That they might be tempted to do so is another outcome of Trump’s “Operation EPIC FAIL”
Which has to be a contender for the title of the most ill-conceived and ill-considered war of modern times.
I just checked and it is a great time for a bargain stay in Dubai. Intercontinental: $105. Sofitel: $78. Ritz freakin’ Carlton: $178. Every five star hotel is under $300 a night. I spent that much for an overnight in Bakersfield, FFS.
@Gustopher:
I’m sure Saru’s fear-based motivation ended in the second season, when his ganglia or whatever fell off. Bad-Good Emperor Georgiou even helped his mirror universe counterpart with that.
I count his as white, male, and straight. Maybe not European or from a European derived culture, ie not American. But he ticks all other boxes.
McCoy was ornery. He loved Spock and would give him anything, except a kind word.
@Michael Reynolds:
I think they hoped bribery and flattery would purchase them protection, and consideration of their interests.
As it did in Trump 45th.
What they failed to plan for was that Trump 47th would no longer have the old-school advisors telling him he was being “unwise” when he was being paticularly idiotic.
It’s a problem all US allies now have: how can you cope when your key ally elects a moron?
Again.
And he goes totally bugf@ck nuts on you?
Trump seems really determined to demolish every pillar of the US global position post-1945 and post-1990: the Atlantic Alliance, the petrodollar, the ex ultima ratio capacity to control the Gulf oil flow, the dollar-centric sytems of international (relatively) free trade and financing, US scientific predominance, US cultural position, US aid influence etc etc etc.
And so the Republican Party has sold away a river of gold, and for what?
Marginal tax advantages, the interests of coal capital, the preening of some billionaires, and the dubious privilege of relying on a voter base consumed by resentment and barely capable of tying their intellectual shoelaces.
@JohnSF:
We should not exempt skulduggery on the part of other interested parties that would like to rope the Saudi’s into this fiasco.
Someone has convinced the felon that Muck & Mire, i.e. Witkoff and Kushner are out of their depth and he’s tasked Vance with extricating his fat ass. Reportedly, a conversation between Vance and Bibi didn’t go well and the Israeli’s are trying to undermine ol’ JD.
Of course none of that could be true as this is a hall of mirrors.
@Kathy: I see a lot of “wisdom” (or “space orientalism”) in Saru’s later portrayals. His gentleness and his fondness for plants, etc. That and his body language (large but not taking up space) and his physical appearance (a whole lot of makeup) eliminates any representation aspect to his character.
It would be like saying a Klingon is black representation because they are played by a black man under three pounds of makeup, and their character has no shared experiences to real black folk in any culture.
Representation matters. It matters when they put in some brown folks and queer folks and women folks. And it matters when they leave out straight white men.
Especially when the Great Replacement Theory is being pushed on the right and is now pretty mainstream, with White Genocide being a whispered loudly — it ends up reinforcing that belief that a utopian future excludes them (don’t ask where the white women come from in this future, no one knows). (Does Mexico have a version of the Great Replacement Theory? Is the right wing saying you are all being replaced by Guatemalans or something?)
And I genuinely love McCoy, but it’s over the top when viewed from a modern perspective. I know he is “really” just hammering away looking for something to get under Spock’s skin and is holding back from “remember that time you went into heat like some kind of filthy animal?” because he knows that would actually hurt. Landing on playful racism instead is a lot though. I do think the pilot for TNG where they show an elderly, sundowning McCoy just being causally racist was not great and is probably best ignored. “I don’t see no pointy ears, boy!”
@Gustopher:
Most Mexicans are of mixed native and European heritage. I’m completely out of place here being of Eastern European descent.
There’s no great degree of xenophobia, but there is some rather soft xenophobia. I know lots of people who regard me as a foreigner, though I was born here and so were my parents.
@Kathy: That fuel reduction bonus sounds like the sort of nonsense that a consulting team suggests, management signs on to, but the PR team is sitting there trying to point out that the cost of even ONE crisis caused by this idiocy will wipe out any “savings” ten times over.
The market dropped again. Trump has managed to start a war that’s actually bad for big business.
@Michael Reynolds:
In the immortal words of Kyrylo Budanov: “It will get worse.”
Fertiliser and diesel prices have soared, therefore food will cost more, farmers margins will shrink, and in some parts of the world harvest will drop to levles threatening food shortages.
Input prices for plastics, chemicals, aluminium, industrial components will be next.
Then other metals and energy-intesive materials.
One indicator, for instance: the $90 increases in Playstation prices.
“So what” some may say.
But these are just the first, just a few weeks in, tremors of the earthquake that is going to hit all Asian supply chains.
The impact will continue to mount, so long as the straits remain choked off, to the point where price rises start to destroy demand.
Say hello to “stagflation”, 1970’s stylee.
And this will, inevitably, bugger the markets sideways.
All things considered, I’m rather peeved.
@Jen:
It reminds me of the 1980s, when AA’s CEO made a big deal about removing one olive per salad from catering, and boasted about saving $40,000 in fuel per year. This is still brought up in business papers and classes and discussions about airline economics.
I doubt there were any perceptible savings. Yes, every gram flown uses up fuel. But 3 kilos per plane, let us say, isn’t much. And he might have done better removing, say, half the blankets from economy, as those also incur laundry and replacement costs 😉
Reducing the amount of fuel carried does have a large impact. Aircraft measure fuel in tons. The reverse rocket equation: if you remove some fuel, you can remove more fuel since you no longer have to carry the fuel you removed. But how much less fuel can be carried while maintaining safety?
Imagine you divert, then find out your approach isn’t stabilized and you lack fuel for a go around. What then? Pretty much crash on the runway or crash near the airport.
@Kathy:
How about ticket discounts for passengers based on weight?
😉
Ok, so here’s a probably stupid, but definitely bleak question I’ve been kicking around in my head:
Given that we are apparently now sending 10k soldiers and marines to the Straits to do something something; either take the north side of the Straits, or Karg island, or something something victory. 10k does not sound like enough to do shit there but die Normandy style. I can see this, randos on Bluesky can see this, I’m sure the actual generals and whatnot see this. What do we think the reaction of the US public will be if we lose a thousand plus marines and paratroopers in like a week, or they sink a boat full of marines and sailors?
Personally I’m not sure any of this has really sunk in.
@JohnSF:
There’s a couple of cranks in ours that put up big signs about only wanting cash and how we’re all doomed because of tap to pay.
Personal banking is one of the areas that US citizens are getting absolutely screwed. Other than a couple of irritating issues (no instant issue, the frustrating way the British refuse to tell you the actual steps to complete a task and the refusal to stray one iota outside of their job even if it costs them nothing and would solve a problem unless you shamlessly burst into tears and ugly cry at them until they solve the problem cause that’s a fate worse than death for them) the British banking system is far superior to the U.S. Just another way US citizens get fucked by big corporations.
Anyway, one other downside is that I went to a trans healthcare fundraiser yesterday and I had a paper £50 to give but they had no way to take it. Kind of a bummer. But, I did drink too much and managed to get hit on by a sexy smelling fuckboy (he even had a lollipop) and a mean looking tall brunette woman. Being bi is so fucking awesome.
@Beth:
10,000 is not remotely, even vaguely, close enough for a major ground operation.
Consider Iraq 1991: c. 500,000 US ground forces; the UK force alone was about 40,000, the French army 20,000. Plus others.
Or Iraq 2003: US c. 200,000; UK c. 40,000
1o,000 is pretty certainly nowhere near adequate for controlling the northern shores of the straits.
It might suffice to take Kharg; to no purpose whatsoever.
Because that does n othing to secure the Straits of Hormuz; and if the purpose is to cut off Iranian oil exports, the US Navy can already do so in the Arabian Sea.
So, seize Kharg, by air assualt with no naval support or resupply (seeing as the US Navy is unlikely to run the straits), and sit there being hit by missiles and drones, and relying on air resupply.
While the straits remain closed.
Sounds to me a bit like a Dien Bien Phu on a desert island.
Or maybe Gallipoli.
Neither of which went well, to put it mildly.
Though less vulnerable to direct infantry attack, so there’s that.
The other “possible” is an airborne attempt to secure and retrieve the enriched uranium from Isfahan (and possibly Natanz and/or Fordow, depending).
Which could be even more of a nasty proposition.
The whole thing is Trump’s idiotically insouciant assumption of “things must proceed according to the script in my head; beacuse kayfabe reasons”.
This is the classic example of “Go big or go home”.
Either plan and prepare for a full-scale land war, and make the case for it to the American people and US congress. (Fat chance, imho.)
Or limit it to “negotiation coercion” strikes as per last year.
The fatal mistake was to escalate, I suspect prompted by Netanyahu to “regime kill” but without having the forces on hand, or even remotely close to prepared, for the “big war” that “regime kill” obviously made necessary.
Because Trump got into a fantasy of prompt Iranian collapse.
And because Netayanhu just doesn’t give a shit.
Though Netanyahu might be starting to realise that he may have seriously, and perhaps irretrievably, f@cked up this time.
Because unless the straits can be secured, and if the US backs out, and absent other Powers stepping in, Iran becomes dominant in the Gulf ,and the Israeli strategy of accord with the Arabians/Gulfies is wrecked.
otoh, if the US does embark on a land war at major cost, due to Netanyahu, that could seriously damage US support for Israel going forward.
And a lot of other countries are going to be counting the economic costs of this mess to themselves, and putting red enries in the ledger against the Israel account.
@Beth:
I suspect the record seller I mentioned rather favours cash becaue it makes certain aspects of tax payment easier. As in non-existent. lol
Other than that, the only cash oriented folks around these days are charity collector, and a very, very few rural pubs.
Unfortunately, these days, the British tendancy to reticence to the point of surliness is reinforced by a managerialist insistence on strict adherance to “procedures”, and
Sign I’m getting old. Not happened to me in years. *sighs*
Well, apart from the “drink to much”. That I can still do.
(Though even then not being bi obviously reduced my options somewhat.)
Oh for my youth, lol.
@JohnSF:
Incidentally, anyone else thought of Dune lately, in relation to current events
“The spice must flow”
And seeing as Herbert modelled the Sardaukar on the Turkish janissaries …
Also Trump as Baron Vladimir Harkonnen is just perfect casting, lol.
Incientally, I’m eagerly awaiting the forthcoming “Dune: The Musical”
Soundtrack to be by the Spice Girls. 🙂 🙂 🙂
@JohnSF: I recommend John Spencers’ podcast on the strategery.
The plan appears to have been regime change by killing off anyone who takes charge until someone who effectively surrenders pops up. It has been mentioned here before, labeled “Destroy and Deal”.
Interesting, but the flaw is assuming you have unlimited time. A world oil crisis and mounting protests within the US make Iran very different situation from Venezuela.
@dazedandconfused:
Having connctivity problems with that podcast.
But if I’m right about the basics of it: the US military effort is effective; but is totally unrelated to any coherent strategic/political outcomes, and how to apply forces to desired results.
(See Clausewitz, also Sun Tzu, Machiavelli, and the daft drummer boy of company B.)
A long standing problem of US policy.
It was the despair of Brits in WW2 that Americans seemed unable to subordinate impressive military operations to desirable strategic outcomes.
In relation to Iran, the US had two realistic options:
Either coercive diplomacy, possiblty involving limited military action.
Or full-on war, requiring forces on the scale of Iraq 1991.
But tried to split the diffrence, and fell between two stools.
Willing the ends, without willing the means.
Or, Trump being Trump, fantasising that the means were just not needed, becuase the ends he desired must just come to be, because his kayfabe script suits him.
Now the US is jammed into a utter disaster, because it can neither attempt to achieve US victory without an incremental ground war that is going to be utterly bloody, or quit out without a de facto Iranian victory that wrecks the US global position.
I’m damned if I can see any easy US exit from the dilemma.
The incoming global economic crisis makes a US exit, possibly after a Kharg farce, quite probable.
But in turn, Iran’s likely overstretch is likely to provoke consequences Iran may well regret.
In either case, the options seem to be a US geopolitical collapse, or an attempted, poorly prepared, land war that could make Iraq + Afghanistan look like a picnic.
I’d suspect Xi would be laughing his ass off.
But China is also on course for masive economic damage.
The entire situation now seems to be a negative sum game:
Whatever happens is going to be f@cked up for everyone.
Damn Trump, and damn Netanyahu, for all this.
@JohnSF: Pretty much, but Spencer’s role at West Pt. of a teacher of military tactics, and a foremost expert in the topic, focuses mainly on how AI and the surveillance networks of this era greatly enhanced the ability of a state to track people. Our locating and simultaneous hits on nearly 40 Iranian leaders is a new and frighting change. That ability probably shaped the strategy of “destroy and deal” for both ourselves and the Israelis. Ruthless dictators have a new and very shiny toy, one of frightening implications.
@JohnSF:
The way you state this, you seem to give the Trump Administration far more strategic thoughtfulness than is manifestly evident by this slap dab sh*tshow. No, at this point they may be rolling through some pre-scripted war plans for the front end, but everything else seems to be shooting from the hip. The closing off of Hormuz was way way way too big an issue to have ignored. And the idea that the theocracy would just fold is sheer ignorance. The final decision makers here are morons, even if they lean on the legacy of previous military game planning.
@JohnSF:
What specifically are you referencing, and from what sources do you draw upon your assessment —
The statement I provided is sourced from the NYT. As worded, it seems pretty clear that MBS was expressing something more than an “opportunistic pivot” to align with Trump’s war spasm: