WaPo (“Gas prices are about to take a big jump, analysts say, with the worst still to come“):
The effects of the U.S.-led war on Iran are about to intensify in the form of huge jumps in the prices of gasoline and diesel, analysts predict. And despite the Trump administration’s assurances, a new and potentially even more economically damaging phase of the war may be about to begin.
The national average price for regular gasoline stood at $4.44 on Thursday, according to AAA, with a range of $6.09 in California to $3.92 in Indiana. That’s still below the all-time national record of $5.02 in June 2022.
Biden did that!
But diesel, which has a big influence on trucking and retail prices, has continued to hit records, with the national average at $6.40 on Thursday. In California, diesel is averaging $8.35.
To put this in perspective, I remind you: “It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done. Remember that. It’s a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more.”
Apparently, though, some Americans are less than grateful.
The cost increases are landing particularly hard in several political battleground states in the Midwest, where prices jumped as much as 25 cents per gallon overnight, according to AAA.
What’s a measly quarter compared to world peace?
Damage inflicted on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline last week, along with continuing strikes on oil infrastructure and contested control over a key waterway, threaten to elevate what had been a shipping crisis into a broader disruption of oil.
The 745-mile pipeline is Saudi Arabia’s principal overland alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, linking eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that the pipeline would be operational again in a matter of days, and the White House has touted renewed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
But analysts who reviewed images of the pipeline damage anticipate a significantly longer disruption, likely resulting in high prices for consumers well beyond the midterm elections. And maritime tracking organizations say that far less oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz than the Trump administration claims.
Who are you going to believe, a guy who made billions in the energy business or some unnamed “analysts” who probably aren’t rich?
Andrew Lipow, a consultant who advises clients on protecting and repairing oil infrastructure, said photos of the pipeline “show a significant amount of damage” and that repairs are likely to “take a month or two.”
“They will need to replace piping, valves, all the electrical stuff,” he said. “It is not like you can just go to Costco and pick that stuff up off-the-shelf.”
I’ve never been to a Saudi Costco, but I can confirm I’ve not seen such at my local stores.
Because of the shortage of crude oil and the damage the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have inflicted on refineries that turn it into diesel and gasoline, market analysts are warning that fresh price shocks are about to hit motorists.
Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for Gulf Oil, predicted on X that Wednesday would “see staggering increases at the pump for both gasoline & diesel.”
“Fuel margins have yet to catch up with previous wholesale hikes,” he wrote. “Watch for huge increases in Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain states in particular.”
“Buckle up,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the price-tracking platform GasBuddy, wrote Wednesday morning. “Gas and diesel look set for a spike over the next 48 hours, hardest in parts of the nation’s interior.”
I should have filled up yesterday, I guess.
Trump has tried to downplay the risk, saying over the weekend that “everything will work out just fine,” when asked about developments in Yemen that appeared to choke off Saudi Arabia’s remaining outlet for oil exports.
Well, that’s a relief.
Bob McNally, who founded the research firm Rapidan Energy Group and was an energy adviser in the George W. Bush administration, predicted that Iran is going “to keep trying to raise the price of crude oil to pressure Trump to capitulate.”
That’s more “blinding flash of the obvious” than “prediction.”
