Outside the Beltway

Further Data on the Party ID Issue

· Thursday, November 1, 2012 · 4 comments

Tom Holbrook at Politics by the Numbers notes the following:

Source:  “Data taken from pollingreport.com and pollster.com.  The dots represent individual polls, and the lines are the smoothed lowess trends in the series.”

This struck me as interesting because it represents clear data to explain why a lot of Republican-leaning voters are self-identifying as independents in the poll samples.

The bottom line is:  we know a substantial number of voters (in the high 40s to low 50s) will vote for Romney, the Republican, next week.  However, we also know that partisan ID in polls does not fit those numbers.  As such, it is clear that a lot of people who will vote Republican do not wish to be called Republican for whatever reason.  The above graph gives us some context:  the net view of the GOP at the moment is negative, and it is not just because Democrats view the party unfavorably (because there are not enough Democrats to create a net unfavorable outcome).

FILED UNDER: 2012 Election, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Rob in CT says:
    Thursday, 1 November 2012 at 10:37

    As such, it is clear that a lot of people who will vote Republican do not wish to be called Republican for whatever reason

    Yup.

    The GOP brand is still badly damaged. Most of that is due to Bush the Lesser and his greatest “hit” Iraq: The Sequel. Some of it is wackiness on “social issues” (though that would only hurt them in some areas, while possibly helping in others). Some of it is probably the attack of the Randroids.

    Up here in New England, there are probably lots of folks who will vote R&R because they hate taxes, but think that the Akin wing of the GOP is a bunch of freaks, and don’t want to be associated with them.

  2. OzarkHillbilly says:
    Thursday, 1 November 2012 at 11:17

    As such, it is clear that a lot of people who will vote Republican do not wish to be called Republican for whatever reason.

    Kind of like some one who is mentally unstable. They will take their meds but will never admit that they are “crazy”.

  3. john personna says:
    Thursday, 1 November 2012 at 12:21

    I think the primary damaged the brand as well. Santorum was a 2-fer, first writing off the college educated, and then the smart, no matter their educational path.

    That’s an extreme case, but broadly the GOP has run right on social issues, alienating the traditional “fiscally conservative, socially liberal” voter. Some number of those seem to be voting Romney on what they believe is fiscal conservatism. As many have noted, the triumph of hope over experience.

  4. Coop says:
    Thursday, 1 November 2012 at 13:15

    As such, it is clear that a lot of people who will vote Republican do not wish to be called Republican for whatever reason.

    I’m sure that reason has nothing to do with this, this, or this.

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