AP (“Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say“):
Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade on the country and an end to the war, while proposing that discussions on the larger question of its nuclear program would come in a later phase, two regional officials said Monday.
U.S. President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, which was passed to the Americans by Pakistan and would leave unresolved the disagreements that led the U.S. and Israel to go to war on Feb. 28.
With a fragile ceasefire in place, the U.S. and Iran are locked in a standoff over the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas passes in peacetime. The U.S blockade is designed to prevent Iran from selling its oil, depriving it of crucial revenue while also potentially creating a situation where Tehran has to shut off production because it has nowhere to store the oil.
The strait’s closure, meanwhile, has put pressure on Trump, as oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed ahead of crucial midterm elections, and it has pressured his Gulf allies, which use the waterway to export their oil and gas.
The closure has also had far-reaching effects throughout the world economy, raising the price of fertilizer, food and other basic goods.
The proposal would push off negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program to a later date. Trump said one of the major reasons he went to war was to deny Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons.
Offhand, this is a better deal than I would have expected Iran to offer. It obviously doesn’t result in either regime change or the end of Iran’s nuclear program, ostensibly the biggest U.S. goals in the war. But those goals are unobtainable, at least at a level of commitment the administration seems willing to make. So, ending the global economic catastrophe and walking away with having severely damaged Iranian military capability seems the best available option.
