Iran Offers to Re-open Strait
A way out of the mess.
AP (“Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say“):
Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade on the country and an end to the war, while proposing that discussions on the larger question of its nuclear program would come in a later phase, two regional officials said Monday.
U.S. President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, which was passed to the Americans by Pakistan and would leave unresolved the disagreements that led the U.S. and Israel to go to war on Feb. 28.
With a fragile ceasefire in place, the U.S. and Iran are locked in a standoff over the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas passes in peacetime. The U.S blockade is designed to prevent Iran from selling its oil, depriving it of crucial revenue while also potentially creating a situation where Tehran has to shut off production because it has nowhere to store the oil.
The strait’s closure, meanwhile, has put pressure on Trump, as oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed ahead of crucial midterm elections, and it has pressured his Gulf allies, which use the waterway to export their oil and gas.
The closure has also had far-reaching effects throughout the world economy, raising the price of fertilizer, food and other basic goods.
The proposal would push off negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program to a later date. Trump said one of the major reasons he went to war was to deny Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons.
Offhand, this is a better deal than I would have expected Iran to offer. It obviously doesn’t result in either regime change or the end of Iran’s nuclear program, ostensibly the biggest U.S. goals in the war. But those goals are unobtainable, at least at a level of commitment the administration seems willing to make. So, ending the global economic catastrophe and walking away with having severely damaged Iranian military capability seems the best available option.
Peter Zeihan made the point a few days back that the embargo was the first thing that actually endangered the IRGC by cutting into their cash flow.
Now, with a bit of luck we can get back to where we were 10 years ago when Trump killed the JCPOA. Just with more enriched uranium, an Iran that realizes the ‘threshold’ game has failed and only a workable, deliverable nuke will protect them, a possible global recession, starvation in poorer countries and 150 little schoolgirls dead.
But isn’t this the deal pre-war? Strait open, with the possibility of talks on the nuclear program?
@Steven L. Taylor:
What about the details, e.g., sanctions? Actually getting to an actual deal will be more complex given the likely negotiation style of the parties.
Also, Iran was a growing threat with its missile etc. buildup. I doubt either Israel or the GCC would be pleased.
ETA: Would sanctions off be part of what Iran is expecting?
@Michael Reynolds:
Iran is claiming, IIRC, something like 3000 civilian casualties, and there are more in other neighboring countries.
Not just the current administration. At least the next administration will have to commit to keeping a large US Army, Reserve, and National Guard presence to have any hope of building something that can persist after we leave.
The felon will take the deal, he’ll bluster that Iran folded and then will kick the can down the road. The fact that he’d already declared that the ceasefire would be indefinite, shows that he has no stomach for an expanded conflict.
The military has told him that making the rubble bounce won’t change anything and if he wants regime change and the nuclear dust, he better be ready to commit ground troops. Which he’s not.
@charontwo:
The “style” of the USA is to send a real estate developer (with no background in diplomacy or the Middle East); an astoundingly conflicted son-in-law who is, in effect, working for the Saudis (who want the war to continue); and a smug, power hungry, sycophantic troll. None of whom have even the least bit of credibility. And as Trump likes to brag, anyone in Iran who can make a deal is already dead. Hell of a job, Trumpie!
@Charley in Cleveland:
I was thinking more of the Iranian style, actually – ambiguity, vagueness, pinballing between the inputs of different Iranian factions.
Also stalling, taking advantage of the Trumpies’ short attention spans.
@Steven L. Taylor:
War! What Is It Good For?
Absolutely nothing.
This time at least.
@Steven L. Taylor: For sure. But status quo ante, plus decapitation of the leadership and significant destruction of their military capability, is a considerably better position than where we are now.
@James Joyner:
I am not so sure. It is possible that the decapitation will have led to a more hardline regime (not to mention that maybe letting the 86-year-old expire naturally could have put the succession process on a different route).
Their conventional military capabilities are degraded, for sure. But so what? Not worth the cost, in my view.
The very salient point is that Iran, and for that matter other countries, can no longer count on the US honoring any agreements it enters into. Not even when a rational Democrat is in charge. that is, you can count on a rational president honoring agreements and commitments, but only so long as they’re in power. Things can change radically after the next election.
That’s the problem. Earlier Republican administrations did honor agreements and commitments made by all prior administrations, including Democratic ones. Had Jeb or Marco or Kasich or even Flyin’ Ted won in 2016, they probably would have abided by the JCPOA, especially as Iran had by and large met its obligations under it. They might have tried to extend or modify it, but not junked it altogether, no matter how much they complained it was a bad deal (spoiler alert: it wasn’t a bad deal).
We know El Taco will just FUBAR everything, for any idiot reason or for no reason (and the Epstein Ballroom above all else!). I’ve no confidence in the likely Taco successors. Couch Boy is in over his head and beholden to his owner, hitler Tihel. The rest aren’t much better. All have embraced ignorance and force as guiding principles.
Oh, and not to bring up the matter that twice within a year the US has attacked Iran while negotiations were ongoing.
Trump has another opportunity to TACO. Declaring victory and quitting now is better than any realistic outcome of renewing the war. Let’s not cavil about the details. Let’s just pray he takes the opportunity to quit.
@James Joyner:
If that is actually what is really on offer.
U.S. military capability has also been seriously degraded though.
ETA: Would the status quo ante include the possibility Iran might at some point decide or find a pretext to close the Strait again?
@gVOR10:
To be better, the strait would have to be fully open to all shipping including warships with some guarantee mechanism that it would durably stay open.
ETA: Do Trump and his crew agree with that? A lot of right leaning sources seem to think Iran is being subjected to a lot of pressure by the blockade of Iranian shipping.
BTW, I keep forgetting to mention – Trump’s personality issues of the NPD persuasion have him desperate for sources of “narcissistic supply.”
I am with James on this one, Iran and President Trump now have a way to wind this down that makes them both look tough.
Yes, the blockade was an actual thing hurting the economic prospects of Iran, but between their control of the Strait and the U.S. blockade it was also hurting us big time.
Also, I suspect that Iran had hidden their Uranium stash in multiple sites anticipating some sort of U.S. action but Israel and the U.S. hit their infrastructure so hard that it may take more time than expected to cobble together enough material to once again be seen as country on the verge of actually creating a nuclear weapon (getting to the material may be a more onerous task than we think, even if Russia and China sent over help to dig out the material), so talks about their bomb building material really can be pushed ahead for another day (maybe even with a different Administration).
President Trump finally had it shown to him that there are limits to his belief that the GOP/MAGA can do whatever the hell they want in this country without worrying about repercussions, because if this war keeps up it all but guarantees that the Dems have a real shot at taking the House and/or the Senate, and Trump knows this no matter the reality his acolytes try to persuade him exists.
In the real world, almost every election up to now that a Dem could flip has gone in our favor (including multiple Red States(!)), and I think that has sent a real chill down the spines of many members of the GOP. The GOP/MAGA can put on a brave face all day long, but they see the election results oftentimes favoring the Democratic candidate clear as day.
End the War Mr. President and go back to crowing about how you are the greatest President ever since sliced white bread, and yada, yada, yada.
As oil and other shortages hit Asia-Pacific hard I can’t help but wonder what pressure Japan, China, S. Korea, Australia, India, etc. are putting on Washington. I expect their various defense and diplomatic agencies have done deep psych profiles of Trump and they know to keep their pressure out of public view.
@Steven L. Taylor: I agree that it wasn’t worth the cost. I’m just arguing that those costs are sunk and this offers a reasonably face-saving way to get out of a stalemate that’s really harming the global economy, given there’s no reasonable hope for a significantly better outcome.
@James Joyner: it would be like all the other times Trump has declared bankruptcy.
It rather depends what Iran means by “re-opening the Straits”.
Before Trump announced the US blockade, Iran was playing games on thge matter, possibly due to divsions within the command hierarchies.
(Which is one reason why “decapitating” a regime is not always a great idea, if it means no-one can enforce central decisions reliably.)
Iran was demanding that ships in transit register with Iranian contol, take only the “northern track” past Prak Island, not the normal central channel, and that Iran had the right to stop ships in passage for inspection.
In short: Iran was attempting to achieve its control of the Straits as a fait accompli
Trump’s typical “bull at a gate” response of counter-blockade was foolish. But Irans attemptemp to impose a control regime was almost as provocative, and is unacceptable to the GCC states and the international community in general, as blatant violation of the law of free transit through intrenational waterways.
If Iran can be persuaded to state that it’s restrictions on violation are related to the ceasfire, and will be removed whaen a peace agreemnet is reached, their offer may form the basis for a compromise.
If they are intent on establishing an illegal permanent control of the Straits of Hormuz, it will almost certainly collapse any talks, sooner or later.
@Michael Reynolds:
I think it unlikely the IRGC is naive enough to believe this is an offer that has a chance with Trump. The statement might be meant for China, really. They may feel China’s aid is now critical, and China wants this to end, so they must appear to be seeking some kind of deal.
@dazedandconfused:
Perhaps, but Trump has got to be aware of the pressures on him.
There are a lot of key commodity prices heading north, and if the prices of petrol and food are still rising come November, there’s a fair chance of the Democrats taking not just the House but the Senate, and then the prospect of a third impeachment is back.
In addition, after about three to four months, the GCC are likely to be facing an economic crisis, and the steady run-down of their grain stockpiles.
And there are the unpredictable effects of developing energy shortages and food price spikes due to fertiliser shorfalls on such countries as China, Pakistan, India, Egypt, Japan, etc etc.
Trump essentially has to choose between an ongoing mutual blockade and spiralling effects; “bomb and hope” (again); major land operations, which he’s obviously depereate to avoid; and a deal with Iran.
By default, only a deal of some sort is viable.
But Trump being Trump, he’ll keep being mulish about it, and keep trying to blame others for his frustrations. (Namely, Europe)
@JohnSF:
Iran is in essence demanding protection money. The threat is your ship might be shot at if it deviates from the approved route, or fails to pay the fees for “services”.
Maybe they figure this is somethin El Taco would understand and know how to deal with, like any other mobster.
Their military capabilities may be degraded but how meaningful is that? The latest intel I saw from a military source claimed they still had about 50% of their missiles and 60% of their small gunboats. So they can still launch missiles and/or shut down the strait whenever they want. Their air defenses are destroyed so we can attack whenever we want but to what end?
My prediction was that Trump would try to keep this short by finding some way to declare victory and then go home. To me that still fits what we know about his methods and personality. I am less certain about what game the Iranians are playing. My gut sense is that they will let some ships out and then when Israel bombs Lebanon again, which they will do, close the strait again. The yo-yo effect drives home that they are in control.
Steve