Iran Offers to Re-open Strait
A way out of the mess.
AP (“Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say“):
Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade on the country and an end to the war, while proposing that discussions on the larger question of its nuclear program would come in a later phase, two regional officials said Monday.
U.S. President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, which was passed to the Americans by Pakistan and would leave unresolved the disagreements that led the U.S. and Israel to go to war on Feb. 28.
With a fragile ceasefire in place, the U.S. and Iran are locked in a standoff over the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas passes in peacetime. The U.S blockade is designed to prevent Iran from selling its oil, depriving it of crucial revenue while also potentially creating a situation where Tehran has to shut off production because it has nowhere to store the oil.
The strait’s closure, meanwhile, has put pressure on Trump, as oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed ahead of crucial midterm elections, and it has pressured his Gulf allies, which use the waterway to export their oil and gas.
The closure has also had far-reaching effects throughout the world economy, raising the price of fertilizer, food and other basic goods.
The proposal would push off negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program to a later date. Trump said one of the major reasons he went to war was to deny Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons.
Offhand, this is a better deal than I would have expected Iran to offer. It obviously doesn’t result in either regime change or the end of Iran’s nuclear program, ostensibly the biggest U.S. goals in the war. But those goals are unobtainable, at least at a level of commitment the administration seems willing to make. So, ending the global economic catastrophe and walking away with having severely damaged Iranian military capability seems the best available option.
Peter Zeihan made the point a few days back that the embargo was the first thing that actually endangered the IRGC by cutting into their cash flow.
Now, with a bit of luck we can get back to where we were 10 years ago when Trump killed the JCPOA. Just with more enriched uranium, an Iran that realizes the ‘threshold’ game has failed and only a workable, deliverable nuke will protect them, a possible global recession, starvation in poorer countries and 150 little schoolgirls dead.
But isn’t this the deal pre-war? Strait open, with the possibility of talks on the nuclear program?
@Steven L. Taylor:
What about the details, e.g., sanctions? Actually getting to an actual deal will be more complex given the likely negotiation style of the parties.
Also, Iran was a growing threat with its missile etc. buildup. I doubt either Israel or the GCC would be pleased.
ETA: Would sanctions off be part of what Iran is expecting?
@Michael Reynolds:
Iran is claiming, IIRC, something like 3000 civilian casualties, and there are more in other neighboring countries.
Not just the current administration. At least the next administration will have to commit to keeping a large US Army, Reserve, and National Guard presence to have any hope of building something that can persist after we leave.
The felon will take the deal, he’ll bluster that Iran folded and then will kick the can down the road. The fact that he’d already declared that the ceasefire would be indefinite, shows that he has no stomach for an expanded conflict.
The military has told him that making the rubble bounce won’t change anything and if he wants regime change and the nuclear dust, he better be ready to commit ground troops. Which he’s not.
@charontwo:
The “style” of the USA is to send a real estate developer (with no background in diplomacy or the Middle East); an astoundingly conflicted son-in-law who is, in effect, working for the Saudis (who want the war to continue); and a smug, power hungry, sycophantic troll. None of whom have even the least bit of credibility. And as Trump likes to brag, anyone in Iran who can make a deal is already dead. Hell of a job, Trumpie!
@Charley in Cleveland:
I was thinking more of the Iranian style, actually – ambiguity, vagueness, pinballing between the inputs of different Iranian factions.
Also stalling, taking advantage of the Trumpies’ short attention spans.
@Steven L. Taylor:
War! What Is It Good For?
Absolutely nothing.
This time at least.