Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Imminent?
The war could be ending soon.
AP (“US says Israel has agreed to the framework for a Gaza cease-fire. Hamas must now decide.”):
Israel has essentially endorsed a framework of a proposed Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal, and it is now up to Hamas to agree to it, a senior U.S. administration official said Saturday, a day before talks to reach an agreement were to resume in Egypt.
International mediators have been working for weeks to broker a deal to pause the fighting before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins around March 10. A deal would likely allow aid to reach hundreds of thousands of desperate Palestinians in northern Gaza who aid officials worry are under threat of famine.
The Israelis “have more or less accepted” the proposal, which includes the six-week cease-fire as well as the release by Hamas of hostages considered vulnerable, which includes the sick, the wounded, the elderly and women, said the official.
“Right now, the ball is in the court of Hamas and we are continuing to push this as hard as we possibly can,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House to brief reporters.
Officials from Israel and from Hamas did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
A senior Egyptian official said mediators Egypt and Qatar are expected to receive a response from Hamas during the Cairo talks scheduled to start Sunday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not publicly authorized to discuss the talks.
There is increasing criticism over the hundreds of thousands struggling to survive in northern Gaza, which has borne the brunt of the conflict that began when the Hamas militant group attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seizing around 250 hostages.
U.S. military planes began the first airdrops of thousands of meals into Gaza, and the militaries of Jordan and Egypt said they also conducted airdrops. Aid groups say airdrops should be only a last resort and instead urge the opening of other crossings into Gaza and the removal of obstacles at the few that are open.
The European Union’s diplomatic service said many of the hundreds of Palestinians killed or wounded in the chaos surrounding an aid convoy on Thursday were hit by Israeli army fire and urged an international investigation. It said responsibility for the crisis lay with “restrictions imposed by the Israeli army and obstructions by violent extremist(s) to the supply of humanitarian aid.”
Reuters (“Gaza truce talks expected as offensive and aid crisis rage on“):
Mediators expected to reconvene in Cairo as soon as Sunday and search for a formula acceptable to Israel and Hamas for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, sources with knowledge of the talks said, after foreign governments resorted to airdrops to aid desperate civilians in the Palestinian enclave.
Israeli and Hamas delegations were expected to arrive in Cairo on Sunday, two Egyptian security sources said, although another source briefed on the talks said Israel would not send a delegation until it got a full list of hostages who are still alive.
Hopes for the first pause in fighting since November rose last week after a previous round of talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt in Doha and indications from U.S. President Joe Biden that agreement was close.[…]
Biden has said he hopes a ceasefire will be in place by the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which starts on March 10.
Biden and other world leaders are under growing pressure to ease the increasingly desperate plight of Palestinians after five months of war and Israeli blockade of Gaza. The United Nations says a quarter of the population – 576,000 people – is one step from famine.
[…]
Hamas has not backed away from its position that a temporary truce must be the start of a process towards ending the war altogether, the Egyptian sources and a Hamas official said.
However, the Egyptian sources said assurances had been offered to Hamas that the terms of a permanent ceasefire would be worked out in second and third phases of the deal. The duration of the initial pause of about six weeks had been agreed upon, the sources said.
From an international standpoint, Israel has lost most of the sympathy it had after the brutality of the October 7 massacre because of the horrible toll the war has taken on Palestinian noncombatants. While the Biden administration has continued its materiel support, it’s rather clear patience is wearing thin. That’s been obvious for weeks now and the airdrop of supplies to Palestinians is the most powerful indicator yet.
While Hamas has yet to agree to terms, a ceasefire is clearly in their interest. Aside from whatever damage to Israel’s soft power that the war has wrought, it has otherwise been a disaster for the Palestinian cause. Even if the death estimates are inflated for propaganda purposes, the toll has been incredible. It’ll take a generation or more to recover from this.
What doesn’t compute for me is: What’s in it for Israel? To be sure, they’re under significant domestic pressure to bring the hostages back safely. But I don’t see how they have a six-week ceasefire and then go back to the status quo ante. It was one thing in the immediate aftermath of the massacre. But on what basis do you stop a war for six weeks and then go back to wreaking havoc?
No, it seems to me that the ceasefire would have to be the period during which negotiations for a final settlement are reached. And I don’t know whether there has been enough damage to Hamas’ fighting capability to reach an end state that’s acceptable to Israel—much less one that justifies the carnage the war has brought.
Since we’re the ones announcing this and not Israel itself, I’m pretty sure we’re putting Netanyahu up against a wall with our collective knee in his balls. We’re saving Israel from its prime minister – might be one of the best things we do for that country.
A respite from an unwinnable war.
Good luck destroying the other side’s military potential if that potential only requires some guys with AKs and RPGs.
And as long as Israel continues on its present course, there won’t be shortage of guys, nor (I can imagine) of AKs and RPGs.
“What’s in it for Israel?”
An off-ramp from a war which was putting Israel on a course to become an international pariah state.
@Moosebreath: James can speak for himself but I took “What’s in it for Israel?” to be questioning the “six weeks” part of the deal. As he observed, going back to a full scale war after six weeks seems impossible.
In any case, good on the Biden administration for pressuring Israel like this. I don’t know if Israel’s slide into becoming a pariah state can be halted, but this cease fire will save thousands of lives.
@Moosebreath: This may be also stated as ‘an off-ramp from a war that has clearly reached a point of diminishing, even negative returns.’ – as regardless of whether one considers the slide to pariah state analysis correct or not (ex-USA I would say yes indeed, but when one has USA as chained to you via its own internal voting you can get away with rather more than normal) ongoing action as pursued now is rather unlikely to achieve significantly more security while it is rather more likely to continue to subject Israeli image to an ongoing acid bath more to the benefit of Hamas than Israel.*
On other hand, this is an instance where the abstraction of the state, “Israel” becomes deceptive as the specific interests of the individual persons making decisions rather diverge from the abstract collective interest of the State.
In the case of Netanyahu and his faction, one has rather extensive evidence that personal interest is rather overriding to a rational estimate of abstract national interest (consciously or not).
*: of course it was widely predicted that Netanyahu would pursue such course, without any real long-term planning nor political project for an exit from his own dead-end policies, than self-preservation, while riding the tiger of the West Bank & Gaza ethnic-cleansing factions.
It was reported this morning that one of the sticking points is that Israel doesn’t want to allow the refugees from the north to return back to their homes. This is consistent with the policy expressed by some Israeli leaders of depopulating and occupying Gaza. However, if there is a ceasefire I think it inevitable that people will make their way back north and Israel will have to decide whether to bomb convoys of civilians. If that were to happen I think even US government support would be dramatically curtailed, and European support would dry up overnight.
@MarkedMan:
“James can speak for himself but I took “What’s in it for Israel?” to be questioning the “six weeks” part of the deal. As he observed, going back to a full scale war after six weeks seems impossible.”
I took James’ question to be what’s in it for Israel to make it worth accepting a six-week ceasefire and then returning to the status quo ante. I have little doubt that, left to his own devices, Netanyahu would only take a deal if Israel had the right to return to full scale war afterwards, as his self-interest lies in continuing the war as long as possible. As long as he remains in power, he cannot be prosecuted under the pending corruption charges.
Hopefully, a majority of the War Cabinet will override Netanyahu and take the off-ramp.
I would fully expect them to go back to war after the cease fire. That said, in the past their response has been to kill 15-20 people in Gaza for each Israeli killed. I think they are probably a bit higher right now but maybe that will be seen as adequate revenge. They have also near totally destroyed the infrastructure and most buildings in Gaza so they might add that in. Seems unlikely that they actually know where to find all of the Hamas fighters so eliminating them was always unlikely. Besides, they know that if they just actually survey Gaza and keep troops there rather than sending them all to the West Bank they will never have to face this kind of attack again.
Still, if they dont go back to fighting Netanyahu and others in the cabinet face losing power so I am betting they go back to war.
Steve
@steve:
This has been a big part of the problem. It mirrors Trump’s problem. Trump has to be re-elected to avoid prison, Netanyahu has to hold on to power or likewise face charges. Two toxic, desperate men.
I think it’s an error to assume that Hamas’s interests match the welfare of the Palestinian people. The more the Palestinian people suffer at the hands of the Israelis, the more they are likely to support a radical group in opposition to Israel.
I don’t think it’s that far off from Republicans preventing government from doing anything, and then getting support from people who think the government isn’t helping anyone. Less bombing, but similar patterns.
Nah, this is just propaganda the Biden admin and their media minions are planting. Israel has already said no go as Hamas won’t provide a list of hostages still alive.
The hope is obviously to force a 6-week ceasefire then cry shock the hostilities resume to condemn Israel.
The Palestinians are just good for PR for the Left. At the start, Egypt wouldn’t even let Palestinians who were US citizens into Egypt from Gaza. In the end, the US embassy had to provide hands on escorts for Palestinian-Americans from the border to the plane. That’s how much other muslim states think of Palestinians.
Old Joe’s deal was 40 hostages in exchange for 400 prisoners released. Joe is certainly needs to read Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’
Israel traded 1027 for the hostage Gilad Shalit. 400 for 40 would be great improvement. Art of the Deal is fiction, propaganda and marketing and should be remembered as such. Trump certainly didnt display much deal making ability when in office.
Steve
Trump’s Art of the Deal
“I‘ll feed them bullshit sandwiches on their lunch break then declare bankruptcy at quitting time so I won’t have to pay them.”
@steve:
Sooner or later.
There was a multi-year “ceasefire” in place on 6 Oct, something I reminded an uncommited naïf yesterday, after he assured me Hamas wants a “permanent ceasefire.” Without revolutions that bring about broad regime change across the region, its religious fanatics will be surely at each other’s throats again in a little while — in the disputed territories of Palestine and beyond.