AP (“US says Israel has agreed to the framework for a Gaza cease-fire. Hamas must now decide.”):
Israel has essentially endorsed a framework of a proposed Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal, and it is now up to Hamas to agree to it, a senior U.S. administration official said Saturday, a day before talks to reach an agreement were to resume in Egypt.
International mediators have been working for weeks to broker a deal to pause the fighting before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins around March 10. A deal would likely allow aid to reach hundreds of thousands of desperate Palestinians in northern Gaza who aid officials worry are under threat of famine.
The Israelis “have more or less accepted” the proposal, which includes the six-week cease-fire as well as the release by Hamas of hostages considered vulnerable, which includes the sick, the wounded, the elderly and women, said the official.
“Right now, the ball is in the court of Hamas and we are continuing to push this as hard as we possibly can,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House to brief reporters.
Officials from Israel and from Hamas did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
A senior Egyptian official said mediators Egypt and Qatar are expected to receive a response from Hamas during the Cairo talks scheduled to start Sunday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not publicly authorized to discuss the talks.
There is increasing criticism over the hundreds of thousands struggling to survive in northern Gaza, which has borne the brunt of the conflict that began when the Hamas militant group attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seizing around 250 hostages.
U.S. military planes began the first airdrops of thousands of meals into Gaza, and the militaries of Jordan and Egypt said they also conducted airdrops. Aid groups say airdrops should be only a last resort and instead urge the opening of other crossings into Gaza and the removal of obstacles at the few that are open.
The European Union’s diplomatic service said many of the hundreds of Palestinians killed or wounded in the chaos surrounding an aid convoy on Thursday were hit by Israeli army fire and urged an international investigation. It said responsibility for the crisis lay with “restrictions imposed by the Israeli army and obstructions by violent extremist(s) to the supply of humanitarian aid.”
Reuters (“Gaza truce talks expected as offensive and aid crisis rage on“):
Mediators expected to reconvene in Cairo as soon as Sunday and search for a formula acceptable to Israel and Hamas for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, sources with knowledge of the talks said, after foreign governments resorted to airdrops to aid desperate civilians in the Palestinian enclave.
Israeli and Hamas delegations were expected to arrive in Cairo on Sunday, two Egyptian security sources said, although another source briefed on the talks said Israel would not send a delegation until it got a full list of hostages who are still alive.
Hopes for the first pause in fighting since November rose last week after a previous round of talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt in Doha and indications from U.S. President Joe Biden that agreement was close.[…]
Biden has said he hopes a ceasefire will be in place by the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which starts on March 10.
Biden and other world leaders are under growing pressure to ease the increasingly desperate plight of Palestinians after five months of war and Israeli blockade of Gaza. The United Nations says a quarter of the population – 576,000 people – is one step from famine.
[…]
Hamas has not backed away from its position that a temporary truce must be the start of a process towards ending the war altogether, the Egyptian sources and a Hamas official said.
However, the Egyptian sources said assurances had been offered to Hamas that the terms of a permanent ceasefire would be worked out in second and third phases of the deal. The duration of the initial pause of about six weeks had been agreed upon, the sources said.
From an international standpoint, Israel has lost most of the sympathy it had after the brutality of the October 7 massacre because of the horrible toll the war has taken on Palestinian noncombatants. While the Biden administration has continued its materiel support, it’s rather clear patience is wearing thin. That’s been obvious for weeks now and the airdrop of supplies to Palestinians is the most powerful indicator yet.
While Hamas has yet to agree to terms, a ceasefire is clearly in their interest. Aside from whatever damage to Israel’s soft power that the war has wrought, it has otherwise been a disaster for the Palestinian cause. Even if the death estimates are inflated for propaganda purposes, the toll has been incredible. It’ll take a generation or more to recover from this.
What doesn’t compute for me is: What’s in it for Israel? To be sure, they’re under significant domestic pressure to bring the hostages back safely. But I don’t see how they have a six-week ceasefire and then go back to the status quo ante. It was one thing in the immediate aftermath of the massacre. But on what basis do you stop a war for six weeks and then go back to wreaking havoc?
No, it seems to me that the ceasefire would have to be the period during which negotiations for a final settlement are reached. And I don’t know whether there has been enough damage to Hamas’ fighting capability to reach an end state that’s acceptable to Israel—much less one that justifies the carnage the war has brought.
