Life Comes At You Fast: Nikki Haley Edition
Nikki Haley has had a lot of ups and downs for the past 16 months. As covered here on Outside The Beltway over a number of posts, from February 2023 to March 2024, she competed in the Republican Presidential Primary. As other candidates like Ron DeSantis fell by the wayside, she even became the choice of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party (at least for those who were still willing to vote Republican this cycle). Yet, despite her critiques of the former President and her efforts to brand herself the face of a post-Trump party, the reality set in that, ultimately, the base of the Republican party wanted Donald Trump to be the nominee.
When Haley finally dropped out of the race, she chose not to endorse the former President. This made sense given her harsh criticism of Trump during her time on the campaign trail. Many people thought she might sit out this entire cycle. But that wasn’t to be the case. By late May polls suggested that Trump was the favorite to win the election and Haley decided tosay she would vote for him.
While many, especially those on the opposite aisle, saw this as cowardice or hypocrisy, it also was the pragmatic option at the time. Haley clearly wanted to be an ongoing force in Republican and national politics. Once the party had settled on Trump, and more importantly, momentum seemed to be behind Trump it only made sense to do what you could to get a seat at the table. She even managed to parlay releasing her delegates to vote for Trump into a prime-time speech at the Republican National Convention. While she wouldn’t be the nominee, it seemed like she would be on the winning side.
And then, immediately after the RNC, Biden announces that he is stepping down from the Democratic ticket. Democrats quickly align behind Vice President Kamala Harris. And suddenly it’s a new Presidential race that finds Donald Trump’s poll numbers dropping (or rather, staying at his low ceiling). In less than a month, Trump goes from the presumptive next President to at best, being neck and neck with Harris. The ground shifted and what was pragmatic for Haley just two months ago is now not so much.
Arguably worse for Haley, Trump begins to prove all of her primary attacks on him right. During the primary, Haley called Trump “insecure,” she questioned his mental competence, and she said he brings “unhinged chaos” with him. Take for example this quote from February:
[t]his is what happens when Donald Trump goes off the teleprompter. That’s the chaos that comes with Donald Trump. That’s the offensiveness that will come every day until the general election. That’s why I continue to say that Donald Trump cannot win a general election…This is a huge warning sign. We have to stop with the chaos. We have to stop with the drama. We have to stop with the bad sound bites that keep happening over and over again, and we have to listen to the American people.
“If 70 percent of Americans say they don’t want Trump or Biden, that they think they’re the two most disliked politicians in America, if 60 percent of Americans think that Donald Trump is too old, that Joe Biden is too old to be president… I hope the people of South Carolina and the people in the Super Tuesday states listen to that.
So what’s a person with buyer’s remorse to do? For Haley, the answer was to go on to Fox News and attempt to change the unchangeable. The Independent quoted this part of the interview:
“But the campaign is not going to win talking about crowd sizes. It’s not going to win talking about what race Kamala Harris is. It’s not going to win talking about whether she is dumb. You can’t win on those things.”
She concluded: “I think the campaign needs to focus. That’s the main thing. Look, this is a winnable election, but you need to focus. Who is your target market? Your target market is suburban women, college-educated, independents and conservative Democrats. That’s your target market.”
If history and Primary-Haley are to be believed, the chances of Trump suddenly, after all these years, focusing are slim to none. The chances that he abandons talking about crowd size are even slimmer (in fact he did so again today). So that leaves Haley in a challenging position. Frankly, her appearance on Fox News last can easily be interpreted as the first step in a campaign to distance herself from Trump. Which, quite frankly, would be the pragmatic choice at this moment.
This isn’t a defense of Haley or a suggestion we should shed tears for her. In the words of the fable Trump has made a part of his stump speeches, Haley is the woman who decided to pick up a carry a snake named Trump, knowing full well what he is.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change. Trump could still win, and Haley’s pragmatic bet could pay off. But if it doesn’t, she may ultimately become the poster model for the limits of pragmatism in uncertain times.
I was musing to myself the other day that I’ll start to relax a tiny (but just a tiny!) bit if and when the rats start leaving the ship. That’s what Haley is doing. The real test is when Repubs running for office go the extra step and start bad mouthing him in hopes of creating distance. If we see a significant number of Republican Senate and House candidates repudiate him outright (however mildly), that will allow me to relax enough to sleep through the night for the first time in, what, ten years?
They all sell out, Haley is is no exception.
As she said 3 months ago:
Could it be that many of those millions of people that voted for her know full well that there is no possibility that Trump will be anything but what he’s been for the past 9 years – a narcissist, a grifter, a seditious insurrectionist, a man whose constant lies have ruined the political and civic culture of this country? What reaching out is there to do?
Although she presents herself as somehow different from her spineless Republican colleagues, the fact is Nikki Haley is no different than Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Bill Barr, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
She, like her weakling peers, wants a seat at the cesspool should Trump win the election.
The limits of pragmatism?
Her call has fuck all to do with pragmatism and everything to do with poor timing on decisions (I suppose to persons who disdain pragmatism (or understand poorly) any bad call then becomes a reason to gin up)
Pragmatism and good judgment based on Trump track record should have seen her hedge her bets with plausibly changeable statements (as like supporting the best outcome of the Party or whatnot) and avoid getting trapped in her current position.
@Lounsbury:
I think there’s a bit of 20:20 hindsight going on here–in particular the issue of the Republican National Convention. Based on the facts at the time, I think using what power and influence she still had to get a convention speech was the right choice.
Likewise, there was no guarantee that (a) Biden would actually step down and (b) the Democrats would quickly unite around Harris versus an open compressed primary. If either of those things breaks differently, then I think Haley’s approach would still have been a good one.
Perhaps the biggest issue is that you only get to make this type of move once.
@Lounsbury:
Would you be willing to flesh out how you define pragmatism? I’m curious in particular about how you see it as different than “hedging your bets”?
Going forward in a post-Trump GOP there will be two tracks: the MAGA faithful and a much, much smaller group ranging from never-Trumpers to those who’ll claim to have been working within the machine to place some limits on him. Into which faction would Haley fit? Neither. The MAGAts will despise her for her short-lived resistance, and the second faction will despise her for capitulating.
Subsequent events over time determine whether a decision was pragmatic. Cowardice often seems pragmatic, it isn’t always. She’s finished in politics. She won’t even get a media gig.
Your target market is suburban women, college-educated, independents and conservative Democrats.
I.e, the people who get scared about fake things like gender, the crime rate in San Francisco, the 2020 riots, and Covid protocols. The main problem is that this culture war produces boring morons like Trump and Musk. There’s no other alternative. You can’t ask for focus on this stuff. You can’t zero in on weird intangible complaints by people who have nothing to complain about. Lack of focus is how it works.
No wingnut welfare for Nikki. You need someone who can turn the lunacy on and off at the drop of the hat. She doesn’t fit the bill.
@al Ameda: Sure, but the voters who preferred her to Trump aren’t going anywhere, either. Ask yourself–who is the Republican candidate that would cause you to vote for him or her rather than Biden had he decided to stay firm? Who is the Democratic candidate that would cause you to vote for vote for Haley if she’d been the pick? If there’s any “reaching out” to be done, it’s about the percent or two of voters who don’t already know enough to have picked a preference. And only the ones in half a dozen states at that.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Let’s try an acid test of sorts? Who ya gonna vote for, Haley or Manchin? Haley or Sinema? Haley or Marianne Williamson? Yeah, I know. They won’t win the nom. But if one did, would you switch parties?
To paraphrase Morton Kondracki from back in the 80s:
Haley has to sell out. We all do. The system is broken. We either support the candidate our party chose, or we don’t have a party to support anymore. Fortunately, one party is running a sane candidate, so only about 47 or 48% of the voters have to sell out.
@Michael Reynolds:
There is something about this that rubs me wrong. I am not sure I can articulate this yet, but for lack of a better argument, this feels like there’s a lot of survivor bias going on with this.
It’s the same (well unarticulated) issue I have with Lonsberry from above.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
What was the original quote? Or just a link to the source.
@mattbernius: Or it could be that Lounsbury was simply entertaining himself by trolling as a contrarian. The “lefty-left” and “bobo uni left” key words were missing, but he was talking about a situation where there were no lefties or bobo to target, so it’s hard to discern his motive. When in doubt, assume bad faith is my position with him.
Still, treating the comment as serious enabled you to expand on your point, so it’s good that you’re here to do the things others of us can’t.
@Matt Bernius: The original quote was about Lyndon LaRouche. I think it was in a TRB column at the back of The New Republic. I don’t know how much of their material they have archived and can’t access the archives as a non-subscriber anyway. That’s not much help, I know. Sorry.
She’s spinning faster than a weather vane in a Cat 4. Good lord. This is pure opportunism.
@Matt Bernius:
Of course there’s survivor bias. An intelligent person, which includes some politicians, has to do more than just do the immediately easy thing. Any idiot can figure out the immediately pragmatic thing. That’s not even two dimensional chess. In fact, chess is a good analogy here, because the pragmatic thing may be to move your threatened pawn, but four moves later that move may prove to be fatal.
Incidentally, it’s also how you plot. You have to be able to project forward in time and see, or at least guess at, the downstream effect. I’ve written books with five or six concurrent plot lines and dozens of characters. If I didn’t have an instinct for how a simple action or line of dialog on page 40 would play out on page 400, I’d still be waiting tables. And I don’t think my back or feet could take that.
You’ve got to serve somebody.
– Bob Dylan
I think Haley is simply a poor prognosticator of wind direction. That is wind going where it is best for Nikki Haley. But I could see her with a media gig though — a “reasonable” republican slot on CNN.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
First off, let me say that there is no Democrat that is as odious and reprehensible as Trump. There are no comparables.
Second, the acid test, let’s do it.
Haley or Manchin? Joe is unprincipled but not a sh*thead.
Haley or Sinema? Kristen is a conservative Democrat, tolerable
Haley or Marianne Williamson? Marianne is a novelty, perhaps Tulsi Gabbard would cause me to vote for Haley. Tulsi always seemed like a Republican Asset who pretended to be a Democrat to get elected.
My bottom line, I wouldn’t change parties over any of those, Democrats because none of them are Trump-like. Manchin might be the worst of the lot. The problem is that if I vote for Haley I still get hard right culture war policies and more conservative judges and possibly Justices.
Doubly amusing since undecideds were always going to break against Trump and Republicans, just as they have been without fail almost everywhere since 2022.
@al Ameda: Exactly my point! Thanks! Few people switch teams.
Didn’t JFK write a book about this titled “profiles in pragmatism”?
@Just nutha ignint cracker: “Sure, but the voters who preferred her to Trump aren’t going anywhere, either. ”
So far, they are a minority, and they have not demonstrated their willingness to stay home or vote Dem. Therefore, they are powerless.
This Republican party just can’t figure out the difference between the Nixon who had 43 scotches in him rambling about Jews and the Nixon who went to China and created the EPA. They just don’t know what the difference is anymore. Look at how they’re handling abortion. They don’t get abortion and women at all.
That’s the survivorship bias—you have to be able to know these things in order to survive. The old GOP survived Nixon. This GOP is going to be come a lesser version of Trump’s moronic thoughts.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: “Haley has to sell out. We all do”
Liz Cheney didn’t.
And believe me, I hate everything she believes in, think she should never hold any elective office in the country, and firmly believe that if she were in a position of power she would pose a serious threat to global stability.
But I respect the hell out of her for putting her principles above her ambition and her beliefs above her party. Something that Haley is completely incapable of.
@just nutha:
My point, though un-artfully said, is that if ever there was a time to be principled, or change parties, this would seem to be it. At times in our history inflection points come along, this is one.
But you’re right, generally, changing parties is rare. Still there is no excuse to be hyper cynical and unprincipled. Nikki Haley is no Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger.
@al Ameda: Have either of them announced support for Harris? If not, they still more Haley than Joyner, for example. For most of us, I think, the closest we get to switching is stay home on election day.
Haley in recent years has reminded me of Aaron Burr as depicted in Hamilton.
“Jefferson has beliefs, Burr has none.”
@just nutha:
No they have not endorsed Harris, but they were willing to risk losing their congresional seats in order to seek truth and oppose Trump.
Haley has risked nothing but the temporary ire of Trump and his supporters. Haley, at this juncture, is looking to have a seat at the Trump Cesspool should he win. She just could not summon the will to say, ‘I will not support Donald Trump in htis election.’ She didn’t have to change parties to show that she’s principled. She’s right there with former AG Barr. She’s a coward.