Nikki Haley has had a lot of ups and downs for the past 16 months. As covered here on Outside The Beltway over a number of posts, from February 2023 to March 2024, she competed in the Republican Presidential Primary. As other candidates like Ron DeSantis fell by the wayside, she even became the choice of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party (at least for those who were still willing to vote Republican this cycle). Yet, despite her critiques of the former President and her efforts to brand herself the face of a post-Trump party, the reality set in that, ultimately, the base of the Republican party wanted Donald Trump to be the nominee.
When Haley finally dropped out of the race, she chose not to endorse the former President. This made sense given her harsh criticism of Trump during her time on the campaign trail. Many people thought she might sit out this entire cycle. But that wasn’t to be the case. By late May polls suggested that Trump was the favorite to win the election and Haley decided tosay she would vote for him.
While many, especially those on the opposite aisle, saw this as cowardice or hypocrisy, it also was the pragmatic option at the time. Haley clearly wanted to be an ongoing force in Republican and national politics. Once the party had settled on Trump, and more importantly, momentum seemed to be behind Trump it only made sense to do what you could to get a seat at the table. She even managed to parlay releasing her delegates to vote for Trump into a prime-time speech at the Republican National Convention. While she wouldn’t be the nominee, it seemed like she would be on the winning side.
And then, immediately after the RNC, Biden announces that he is stepping down from the Democratic ticket. Democrats quickly align behind Vice President Kamala Harris. And suddenly it’s a new Presidential race that finds Donald Trump’s poll numbers dropping (or rather, staying at his low ceiling). In less than a month, Trump goes from the presumptive next President to at best, being neck and neck with Harris. The ground shifted and what was pragmatic for Haley just two months ago is now not so much.
Arguably worse for Haley, Trump begins to prove all of her primary attacks on him right. During the primary, Haley called Trump “insecure,” she questioned his mental competence, and she said he brings “unhinged chaos” with him. Take for example this quote from February:
[t]his is what happens when Donald Trump goes off the teleprompter. That’s the chaos that comes with Donald Trump. That’s the offensiveness that will come every day until the general election. That’s why I continue to say that Donald Trump cannot win a general election…This is a huge warning sign. We have to stop with the chaos. We have to stop with the drama. We have to stop with the bad sound bites that keep happening over and over again, and we have to listen to the American people.
“If 70 percent of Americans say they don’t want Trump or Biden, that they think they’re the two most disliked politicians in America, if 60 percent of Americans think that Donald Trump is too old, that Joe Biden is too old to be president… I hope the people of South Carolina and the people in the Super Tuesday states listen to that.
So what’s a person with buyer’s remorse to do? For Haley, the answer was to go on to Fox News and attempt to change the unchangeable. The Independent quoted this part of the interview:
“But the campaign is not going to win talking about crowd sizes. It’s not going to win talking about what race Kamala Harris is. It’s not going to win talking about whether she is dumb. You can’t win on those things.”
She concluded: “I think the campaign needs to focus. That’s the main thing. Look, this is a winnable election, but you need to focus. Who is your target market? Your target market is suburban women, college-educated, independents and conservative Democrats. That’s your target market.”
If history and Primary-Haley are to be believed, the chances of Trump suddenly, after all these years, focusing are slim to none. The chances that he abandons talking about crowd size are even slimmer (in fact he did so again today). So that leaves Haley in a challenging position. Frankly, her appearance on Fox News last can easily be interpreted as the first step in a campaign to distance herself from Trump. Which, quite frankly, would be the pragmatic choice at this moment.
This isn’t a defense of Haley or a suggestion we should shed tears for her. In the words of the fable Trump has made a part of his stump speeches, Haley is the woman who decided to pick up a carry a snake named Trump, knowing full well what he is.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change. Trump could still win, and Haley’s pragmatic bet could pay off. But if it doesn’t, she may ultimately become the poster model for the limits of pragmatism in uncertain times.
