Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. KM says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 07:52

   Anyone else get kicked out of bed unexpectedly by an earthquake? Happy Monday indeed….
2. charon says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 08:37

   Interesting piece at ISW (Institute for Study of War)

   https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-february-5-2023

   or

   https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20February%205%2C%202023.pdf

   Excerpts:

   ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, February 5. This report focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cautious approach to risk-taking after having thrown the dice on launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, an act he likely did not see as a risk. Putin’s hesitant wartime decision making demonstrates his desire to avoid risky decisions that could threaten his rule or international escalation—despite the fact his maximalist and unrealistic objective, the full conquest of Ukraine, likely requires the assumption of further risk to have any hope of success.

   Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decisions regarding Ukraine since his initial flawed invasion on February 24, 2022, indicate a likely disconnect between his maximalist objectives and his willingness to take the likely high-risk decisions necessary to achieve them. Putin likely operated under the flawed assumption that Russian forces could force Kyiv to capitulate without any significant military sacrifices and saw Russia’s invasion as a limited and acceptable risk. Captured Russian military plans, for example, revealed that the Kremlin expected Russian forces to capture Kyiv in days, Russian intelligence services reportedly expected the Ukrainian military to collapse, and Kremlin propagandists preemptively published a prewritten article extolling Russia’s “victory” on February 26, 2022.[1] Reports that Putin dismissed the Russian Central Bank’s prescient warnings in February 2022 of the effect of a war in Ukraine on the future of the Russian economy under harsh Western sanctions likely suggest Putin wrongfully assumed the West would not impose major costs on his invasion.[2] The failure of Russian forces in the Battle of Kyiv—and with it the Kremlin’s war plan—forced Putin to face complex decisions as the Kremlin fought an increasingly costly and protracted conventional war. Putin, however, has remained reluctant to order the difficult changes to the Russian military and society that are likely necessary to salvage his war.

   Snip

   Putin’s reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO. ISW previously assessed that Russian conventional war threats against NATO do not correspond with Russia’s capabilities and that Russia uses nuclear threats primarily to intimidate the West.[23] Putin evidently values his domestic status quo and seeks to avoid risky and controversial policies to support his own aims. Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculated individual who places considerable emphasis on eliminating risks—even while his perception of the situation he faces diverges from reality. Putin has thus repeatedly placed himself in the position of articulating maximalist and unrealistic objectives, calling on his government and military to achieve them—yet refraining from making the costly decisions the large-scale and protracted conventional war he has embarked on likely requires.

   Key inflections in ongoing military operations on February 5:

   Current Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (pending a potential reshuffle) stated that Ukrainian officials expect possible Russian offensive operations ahead of the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, but noted that there are no Russian strike groups near Kharkiv City.[24]

   German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Ukraine is not using Western-provided weapons to strike Russian territory.[25]

   US officials stated that Russia and Iran plan to build a factory in Russia to manufacture up to 6,000 drones for combat in Ukraine.[26]

   A Russian source claimed that Russian arms company Lobaev Arms is beginning to develop and produce these drones.[27]

   Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces launched renewed offensive operations northwest of Svatove in recent days.[28]

   Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut.[29]

   Russian milbloggers are conflicted on whether Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Bakhmut, as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied claims of a Ukrainian withdrawal.[30]

   ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely unable to force an imminent Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut.

   Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are transferring reserves in the Vuhledar direction.[31]

   Geolocated satellite footage shows that Russian forces built a fortified base on the Arabat Spit in northeastern Crimea between October 18, 2022, and January 21, 2023.[32]

   The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continue to import medical personnel from Russia to treat wounded military personnel in occupied Luhansk Oblast, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are preparing for a renewed offensive in Luhansk Oblast.[33]

   Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive.

   2
3. daryl and his brother darryl says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 10:45

   Well the balloon is gone, so I suppose we will be back to Hunter’s Laptop 24/7.

   3
4. Kathy says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 12:34

   @charon:

   This reminds me of a line in a Stephen Coonts novel, The Minotaur, where one naval officer is despondent over the high cost of the Navy’s stealth fighter.

   He says “It’s like they want to build just one, to park it at the White House lawn to scare the crap out of the Soviet ambassador.”
5. charon says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 12:41

   Judging by the piece I linked, Putin will just persist with more and more conscripts and armaments until he is forced to stop, will take a while. So the Leopards, F-16s etc. make sense even though they do not show up until many months – this will drag on for awhile considering how much meat is available for Putin to conscript for the grinder.

   1
6. Scott says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 12:43

   @Kathy: And that reminds me of one of Augustine’s Laws:

   In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one tactical aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3½ days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.

   Norm Augustine was the CEO of Martin Marietta and later Lockheed Martin.
7. CSK says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 12:45

   @KM:
   There was a 3.8 in Buffalo this morning. Was that near you?
8. Scott says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 12:50

   But right wing domestic terrorism is not a problem in this country.

   Pair charged with plotting racially-fueled attack on Baltimore power grid

   Federal authorities announced Monday that they’ve foiled an attempt by racially-motivated extremists to use assault weapons to bring down Baltimore’s electrical grid.

   Sarah Beth Clendaniel of North East, Md. and Brandon Russell of Orlando, Fla., were arrested late last week on federal charges that they planned to attack electrical substations in order to try to cause chaos in Maryland’s largest city.

   Russell has previously been described by federal officials as a founder of a Neo-Nazi group known as the Atomwaffen. In 2018, he was sentenced to five years in prison on explosives charges. Russell was released in August 2021, federal Bureau of Prisons records show.

   According to a criminal complaint charging the pair with conspiracy to destroy an energy facility, Clendaniel told an FBI confidential informant about plans to attack five substations in an effort to cause widespread blackouts. That “would completely destroy this whole city,” Clendaniel allegedly said.

   Extremists, cybercriminals and vandals have intensified attacks on the power grid in recent years, with such incidents reaching a decade-long peak last year.

   2
9. CSK says:
   Monday, 6 February 2023 at 13:28

   A family of three committed suicide because Trump lost in 2020.

   http://www.businessinsider.com/family-found-dead-suicide-pact-were-hell-bent-trump-winning-2023-2

   That’s carrying disappointment to an extreme, I would say.

   1
10. CSK says:
    Monday, 6 February 2023 at 13:35

    http://www.rawstory.com/trump-seethes-on-truth-social-after-pentagon-says-chinese-spy-balloons-flew-over-us-on-his-watch/

    Of course he did.

    1
11. Neil Hudelson says:
    Monday, 6 February 2023 at 15:11

    For the first time in nearly a decade I’m on the job market. No real reason other than boredom with my job–I achieved what I wanted to do and then some, and now it’s just more of the same day after day.

    Even though I’m doing nothing wrong by offering my labor to organizations that would like to pay me for it, turning on the “I’m looking” badge on LinkedIn felt like I was signing up for Ashley Madison (is that still a thing?)

    1
12. CSK says:
    Monday, 6 February 2023 at 16:50

    @Neil Hudelson:
    Apparently Ashley Madison still exists. I just Googled it.

    1
13. Joe says:
    Monday, 6 February 2023 at 17:40

    @CSK: Why did they wait until now, but not for his second coming? Is this some sign they saw his 2024 campaign as losing steam?
14. CSK says:
    Monday, 6 February 2023 at 17:51

    @Joe: 1
    I know; I fnd it puzzling too. All I can think is that they were waiting for the 2020 election to be overturned and for Trumo to be reinstated.