Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, August 5, 2024
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45 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Oh yes …. OTB is back and there was much rejoicing!!!!
Amidst all of my random reading yesterday, I saw that Andy Beshear had cleared his schedule on Tuesday…what sayeth the hive mind here?
@Jen:
I saw that on Twitter. But I also saw that Shapiro and, IIRC, Kelly had also changed their Tuesday schedules. We will soon find out!
I just don’t see how Beshear helps the ticket much, let alone more than any of the other likely candidates.
@Jen:
The hope may be that Beshear could appeal to moderates.
The delay at the NABJ conference was solely because Trump wouldn’t walk onstage if they were going to fact-check him in real time. The audio “issue” took about 30 seconds to resolve.
Of course Trump doesn’t want to be fact-checked… because he’s entirely full of familyblog.
You’ve never met a BSer in your life?
@Neil Hudelson: Ha, I had not seen that re: Shapiro and Kelly…smart to have multiple schedule-clearings!
@CSK: Sure, yes. I will note that the VP slot is just as much about finding the right working “fit” with another person, it’s not solely based on EC math and coalitions. This is the one aspect that doesn’t seem to factor into people’s assessments, but is one of the more important things to consider. Someone who’s perfect on paper might not be the right fit personality-wise.
Shapiro and Walz seem to both have had issues crop up, and Kelly appears to make unions uncomfortable.
I’m happy with any of them!
@CSK: The people who aren’t likely to know Andy Beshear from Andy Capp? Hmm… Still, it’s early. All three have their points.
@Jen: Call me when his plane leaves the tarmac.
@Jen: I hope the Harris and her campaign are not making the mistake of making VP selection a beauty contest. These people have egos and dignity. Let them all keep both.
You know, I get it, the worry of a recession is always lingering about anytime the monthly reports are lackluster. But for crying out loud, they were chatting up the “fact” that the country was headed for a recession a year and a half ago which never panned out.
I have a few observations.
1. Recessions happen and typically there is nothing you can really do about it. I don’t believe for moment that that the FEDs rate increasing had much to do with bringing down inflation. I think they just got lucky.
2. It is horrifying that any political campaign for president can be killed in the cradle by the mercurial movements of the economy, while down ballet candidates seem to get their job back time after time. We seem to think there is a economy lever in the White house that can be pulled at any time to make things right.
3. Now some people are saying they waited too long to cut rates, but is the 1/4 % they would have cut really going to have any effect at all in the short term? let’s say they did that 2 months ago, would things really have been different? Also, it’s not like they will chop off a whole percentage point. Is all the grumbling from day traders?
#DoomScrolling
Sadly, JFK Jr’s dead bear prank (One supposes it could be worse, it could be a bear necrophilia story) is diverting eyes from the shite-show of the Trump/Vance campaign.
All weirdos…
@Rick DeMent:
Yaaaay.
@Argon: It’s still early. The playoffs teams aren’t even set yet. The undecideds that will select the next Prez don’t care about decade old bear pranks and don’t know JD Vance from Cyrus Vance — or Cyrus of Persia for that matter.
@Jen:
I’ve been discussing this with people for the last few weeks. The history of selecting a vp candidate in order to win a particular state does not have the greatest track record. To begin with, there are a bunch of examples of tickets that went on to lose the vp candidate’s home state. These include:
(1) Nixon-Agnew in 1968 lost Maryland. (They won it in the 1972 landslide, though.)
(2) Dukakis-Bentsen in 1988 lost Texas.
(3) Kerry-Edwards in 2004 lost North Carolina.
(4) Romney-Ryan in 2012 lost Wisconsin.
The one example that people point to as an example of a potential vp pick that might have changed the outcome of a race is if Gore had selected Florida Senator Bob Graham in 2000. Now, to be clear, I do genuinely believe that if Gore had selected Graham, he would have handily won Florida, and the election, without hanging chads or butterfly ballots or SCOTUS becoming a factor. But then, the circumstances of that race were so unusual–537 votes in Florida, literally the smallest number of votes ever to decide a presidential election in our history. Besides, presidential elections rarely come down to a single state; 2000 and 2004 are exceptions. Even 2016 and 2020, while relatively narrow elections in terms of raw votes, each required at least three states to go the other way in order to have produced a different EC outcome.
Maybe that’s why many running mates historically have not come from swing states (Harris is from California, Pence is from Indiana, Biden is from Delaware, etc.). It’s not that home-state advantage is ignored, it’s just that it’s not something that’s typically prioritized over other considerations. And I think political nerds have a habit of over-emphasizing it, because it’s among the easiest facts about a choice they can grasp onto. In any case, one thing I’ve noticed over the years is that presidential and vp candidates who go on to flop are often the ones people become prematurely enamored by based on how they look on paper.
@Rick DeMent: From what I have read, all the “sky is falling” talk is the result of bad job numbers in the tech sector. I for one don’t think that will have much of a cascading affect.
@Kylopod:
In 1984 Mondale-Ferraro didn’t carry New York.
Question- Is the edit button gone for good or will it come back?
@Bill Jempty:
Thanks for the heads up. It shouldn’t be gone. I’ll add it to the debug list.
Xlon’s Xitter bot embraces misinformation.
Is anyone surprised?
on a related note, I keep seeing changes in Copilot. The cooking assistant, designer, travel and other “modes” are gone. Settings do remain for “more creative,” “more balanced,” and “more precise.”
I don’t see all that much difference in answer quality between these settings. But there is a big difference in the “more creative” setting. It makes the bot more chatty. after answering, it will prompt a question of its own. For instance, when I asked why in superhero fiction accidents result in awesome abilities rather than disability or gruesome death, it gave a longish answer, followed by a question more or less like “is there any superhero origin story you’re interested in?”
It does the same when I ask about venomous spiders, potato recipes, or comparisons between ancient Greek storytelling habits and the Marvel cinematic universe.
I thought it was a means for prolonging engagement, but the other settings don’t do this.
It’s also become very agreeable. Everything I tell it is interesting, fascinating, insightful, etc. Even when it then goes on to argue against it. It feels a bit like a TZ ep.
@Gavin: There’s been a lot of talk about whether Trump’s performance at that NAJB interview was an inability to control himself or a calculated ploy. Kevin Drum makes a pretty good case for calculated, he even has a chart. His silliness about switching from Indian to Black “was intended to appeal to a longtime obsession of the right: namely that identity politics and accusations of “systemic racism” are just a con job by liberals.”
We often attribute to stupidity or personality behavior that doesn’t seem to us to make sense. But Trump isn’t stupid. He is ignorant and hardly genius level, but probably above average IQ. And he is advised by very cynical and very skilled GOP advisers. This appearance was calculated. His talking to a muted debate mic to rattle and distract Biden was calculated. His “agreeing” to a debate he and FOX made up is playing very well on the right. His babbling about sharks and boat batteries is gibberish, but apparently plays well in his rallys. His whole wandering, ambiguous speaking style is designed to let his supporters hear what they want to hear while allowing wink and nod deniability.
@OzarkHillbilly: I mentioned elsewhere reading Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. He relates that when Saddam Hussein was captured the bond market rose, leading to the Bloomberg headline, “U.S. TREASURIES RISE; HUSSEIN CAPTURE MAY NOT CURB TERRORISM. Half an hour later, bond prices fell back and the revised headline read: U.S. TREASURIES FALL; HUSSEIN CAPTURE BOOSTS ALLURE OF RISKY ASSETS.” He cites this as evidence of how the mind works.
Stocks go up, stocks go down, and we’re loathe to think much of it is random, or just herd behavior.
@gVOR10: If it was calculated, he chose the least receptive audience. He could have just been saying this at his rallies, so the “race-hustler” message gets to the people who would be receptive. Any “he did it intentionally” theory has to account for the audience.
I think he was just trying to tell Black folk that Harris isn’t one of them. Some kind of weird stolen-valor type thing.
Did he carefully calculate “Black jobs?”
@Bill Jempty:
Dole-Kemp also lost New York in 1996. There are in fact a lot of examples. I tried to focus on ones where the vp candidate came from a state that leaned toward the other party but was potentially within reach of the ticket. I don’t think NY was seriously within reach of Dole, and the only reason Mondale lost NY was that it was a giant landslide; in other words, it was the least of his problems, and attempting to secure the state could never have been part of any strategy for winning the election. (It seems Mondale was trying to select a “historic” choice–a woman or a minority or both. He considered Dianne Feinstein, then the mayor of San Francisco, as well as well as Tom Bradley, mayor of LA.)
“Home state” is a concept that often gets used too broadly, in my opinion. Most of the time it means someone who is or was a Senator or governor, meaning the state as a whole has actually elected them to something. Merely holding a congressional seat, like Ferraro or Kemp or Paul Ryan, is somewhat less relevant (and dependent to some extent on how large the state is and how many districts it has); and least relevant is never having held office there at all. Would Pete help Kamala win Michigan, simply because that’s where he happens to live right now? I doubt it.
@gVOR10: Back in my blogging days, I used to have a recurring series of posts- ‘Where’s the Dramamine?’ For when two versions of the same news say something totally opposite of the other.
I remember at least one post where a news article contradicted itself.
@Jen:
Yes, also someone that the President will spend a lot of time in the same room with for the next four-plus years. Someone who can’t be fired. I don’t know about the sorts of people that Harris might be irritated by. In hindsight, we did know a lot about Trump’s preferences, or rather, not-preferences. He doesn’t appear to like Southerners, or westerners, or East Coast old money. Both times he’s picked a conservative white male from the eastern part of the Midwest.
Maybe the Convicted Felon chose Vance because it made it easier to recycle the FELON-PENCE signs too many MAGAts already own?
Hm. Google lost a lawsuit.
It seems it may alter the entire online landscape.
@Michael Cain:
I can think of one man who has a proven track record of working with her, is an oft-respected white man, foreign policy experience, congress wrangling experience, and has shown himself to be able to loyally support a President. An elder statesman who, if something tragic happened to Harris, could step in and do the job.
Kamala Harris still has the opportunity to do the funniest thing possible, and name Joe Biden as her running mate.
He’s very Vice Presidential.
(It would, unfortunately, also benefit the right wing vendors who are sitting on a lot of “F*ck Joe Biden” merchandise.)
BTW, season 12 of Futurama is out.
It’s odd that a show set one thousand years in the future spends so much time dealing with 21st century issues. This time it was NFTs. Last season they did one on cryptocurrencies. Even earlier on, maybe before it was first cancelled, there was one on climate change.
That said, I did appreciate the way they dealt with NFTs. Minor spoiler: no one knows why they are valuable or even whether they are valuable at all, or really what they are supposed to be.
@Kathy:
No changes expected here. I’ve been using Google exclusively for searches for a very long time.
The OTB was dead, yet it rose again!
I suspect I was getting a proxy-server cache over the weekend, as the site was showing nothing past last Wednesday most of the time. Then vanished entirely on Sunday afternoon.
My congratulations to the server-wranglers!
In the UK, the government is, as I expected, coming down hard on the far-right and idiot thug rioters.
Up to 400 have so far received the early morning wake-up call of the police crashing in.
Most are being remanded without bail, pending hearings, which may not be until September.
Indications are that this is just the start.
At least 500 additional prison spaces are being freed up.
A national police “emergency response task force of some 6,000 to 8,000 officers is being formed up.
Magistrate’s courts are on notice to prepare for emergency sessions if needed to deal with arrest throughput.
Keir Starmer is, as some people are going to learn to their considerable regret,is a prosecutor by background and inclination.
He was Director of Public Prosecutions in 2011 when the “London riots” occurred; and took a hard line then.
Also, if I were Elon, Lord of Xitter, I’d be careful. Stramer has fired a shot across his bows, and the Martian is, as his wont, doubling down.
Generally, Starmer is a rather serious fellow, not inclined to speak in vain, nor very forgiving of being crossed.
The UK may not be able to prosecute Musk; but it can take legal action against X, as a UK operating platform, and levy fines on its UK revenue.
And can change the legal environment almost at will.
Considering the EU is also rather peeved at Xitters policies, the prospect of legal sanctions in much of Europe is a serious possibility
@Gustopher: I’ve thought about this multiple times. 😉
@JohnSF: It was mighty thoughtful of the Nazi-right to give Starmer a present like this to start his administration.
@JohnSF:
Xlon does seem determined to pick fights with western governments.
I wonder whether he’s lobbying for a constitutional amendment that would allow him to run for president. Or, perhaps, like Lex Luthor, he’d have to give up too much power to be president.
@JohnSF: What does Labor have against free speech?
There are straws in the wind, tiny indicators that suggest Fox News may be thinking of sinking Trump. Ask yourself which would earn Murdoch more money. Spending the next four (or more) years defending an unpopular autocrat? Or being the voice of all the Kamala haters?
@OzarkHillbilly:
You jest; but the amount of tedious American xitter commentary on this is really annoying.
“What about your 1st Amendment rights?”
WE DON’T HAVE ANY!
UK law grants a considerable leeway of free speech (more than some European countries) under both statute, human rights, and Common Law; but is definitely bounded regarding incitement. libel, etc.
Again, both according to statute and Common Law
Not to mention the prerogative of the Crown to stomp heads if and when required for the public good.
I love Americans dearly, but you ≠ us.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Previous is really, truly, not meant as a swipe at you.
I’m just getting a bit peeved at MAGA turning up on UK commentary and chuntering tediously.
Also, some traffic analysis indicates that the MAGA may not be so much MAGA as Muscovite.
There are questions to be asked re “Tommy Robinson” (currently on holiday in Cyprus) and other UK Right “influencers” re. Russia.
And it may be that these questions might now get pressed.
The British state in a bad mood tends to be both ruthless and vindictive.
Sometimes a bad thing; but sometimes it can have its benefits.
We shall see.
International news that may have passed unnoticed, but may be significant nonetheless:
In Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina decides it may be better to be elsewhere.
Basically, a lot of young people were sick of the legal nepotism of state jobs being reserved for the families of the ruling party.
And of the related parasitism of the Awami upon the rest of the economy via pervasive corruption.
A pity, really.
Hasina began as a democratic reformer, and helped Bangladesh to become an emergent “tiger” economy, but ended up being too enmeshed in the Awami patronage system, and too isolated to see how that system was becoming not an enabler, but a parasitic.
Congrats on the mostly successful upgrade!
One possible bug report: I use an RSS aggregator (newsblur.com) to follow updates to the site. It doesn’t seem to be getting new stories. Thanks you.
Now for tooting my own horn department, Brett Snyder over at Cranky Flyer anticipates much the same thing I did about what seats Southwest might sell as premium.
I’m not saying I’m right, but it’s nice to guess the same thing as someone with actual airline and travel revenue experience.
@OzarkHillbilly: I was going to go the direction of questioning the wisdom of releasing people who have, presumably, committed crimes to make room for political theater but decided on “not my circus, not my clown car” instead.
@just nutha:
There was already emergency early release in place due to the previous governments screwing up the prison system.
It seems worth expediting this to ensure the prompt and exemplary remanding and sentencing of persons who have attacked asylum hostels, petrol bombed mosques, assaulted police, hurled bricks at nurses, wrecked the property of locals, claimed the horrid murder of children was by a Muslim illegal immigrant when the arsehole concerned was a second-generation Catholic etc etc.
Personally, I’d be inclined to avoid pressure on cell space by using heavy machine guns for crowd control in such situations, but for some reason folks seldom come to me for operational advice.
At least, not before it’s to late for ill-will to do good.
@JohnSF: Conservatives screwing up prison systems is another “feature, not bug” thing. And, “not my circus…” offers me the ability to snark without having to apologize for being wrong.
Or even admit that I was (though I had no idea that the other circus was touring in the UK).
@just nutha via @JohnSF: Though thinking more about it, I recall a post pre- reconfigure about people from one of your haunts rebuilding in the wake of a
riotprotest, so I guess I’d merely forgotten the circus coming. I blame age–and not paying attention.