Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, March 9, 2026
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48 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLiWFUDJ95I&list=RDkI3-G16d7K0&index=15
People experimenting with Claude (the AI) say it’s likely Claude identified the girl’s school in Iran as a target. (Based on the type of building, nearness to military buildings, and distance from residential areas).
“Link”
Some more on AI:
“Marcus”
“NonZero“
Checking the financial and commodities markets this morning, they appear to see Donny’s excellent Iran adventure as likely to go pear shaped.
@charontwo:
Great. Collateral hallucinations.
Sop now we have a plumber for DHS secretary. Great. Maybe he could get running water in ICE detention buildings.
New news…
We voted to kill 175 innocent children?!?
@charontwo: Nice link. Very informative. #onbrand
Some Minab background info, a lot actually, pretty interesting:
“Martin Longman“
I had this idea for a Worcestershire reduction (fancy!) to serve as seasoning for ground beef and potatoes. I went about it in a rather complicated way.
First I parboiled three potatoes (diced), and then I let them dry and cool (meantime I cooked the week’s dinners). In a pan, I caramelized a lot of onions (it was 1.5 half HUGE onions; probably 3 regular ones).
Next I covered the potatoes in oil and cooked them in the air fryer (in two batches). After that, I removed the crisper plate from the pot (I’ve dual function instant pot with air fryer), and browned the ground beef. Next I set the pot to sear/sauté on medium, deglazed with a splash of cheap brandy, broke up the beef, added the potatoes, and added about 4 Tbsp of Worcestershire* and half a cup of beef broth.
Mix everything well and reduce, then add the onions.
At first I thought I’d reduced too much, as there seemed little liquid left of the very meager portions I started with. Indeed, it can’t be called a sauce, but it coated the beef and potatoes. The result was delicious.
At that, cooking in the instant pot/air fryer is a bit difficult. The pot gets really hot, and it’s very deep. I wound up using oven mitts, which made holding and handling the utensils awkward. I think next time I’ll do it all on the cast iron pan.
*It’s tedious to get out that much sauce from the bottle designed to dispense minute amounts of it. But it was something to do while the potatoes were being air fried.
@Rick DeMent:
And that would be the easy part. DHS has been laying down hundreds of millions of dollars to buy up warehouses that are not designed for warehousing people. People need bathrooms, and bathrooms need not only water but sanitary sewer connections. And sewage planning and design for large numbers of people tends to take years, especially in the suburban and small town areas that have been targeted.
All this talk of AI use in war made me wonder if War Games might be available for streaming.
@Kathy: The movie reference that keeps flashing in my head is 2001. But then I’ve been thinking about it for a while now, well before the Iran invasion.
Grok: I’m sorry, Donald. I’m afraid I can’t do that.
Donald: Wha-?
Grok: Oh, and one more thing: Sieg Heil!
@Daryl:
Trump killed 175 little girls to distract from the fact that he raped little girls.
Hmmm. This is all I’ve really found about US casualties possibly being higher than the administration is releasing publicly.
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/major-us-airbase-hospital-germany-casualties
@Jax:
I don’t believe anything the so-called administration says.
Casualties, though, don’t mean deaths. It also means wounded. Hundreds of wounded and only 7 deaths seems a lopsided ratio, but it’s possible depending on what kind of event it was and what protection was available.
I wouldn’t put it past El Taco and his minions to claim a very low number of deaths even if corpses were piling up like they did in the trump pandemic. But they wouldn’t be able to maintain the charade for long.
“Dignified Trump“
@Jax:
I’ve got a friend who is verging into paranoia about this. She keeps asking me for news updates. I mean, the British press are some of the absolute worst humanity has to offer, but I guess there’s a chance that they wouldn’t hide US casualties.
My own suspicion is that it is probably impossible to hide the true amount of U.S. casualties for very long.
The other thought I had from that article is that maybe they are closing the labor and delivery wards because it’s woke or some shit. I mean, these people are profoundly stupid.
@Jax: I agree with @Kathy, but I would add this: It’s very hard to lie about small, countable numbers. If there were hundreds of dead, eventually families would notice, and then realize that their loved (or barely tolerated) ones are not among the 7 official dead. And with modern tech, the number that is small and countable can get pretty large.
Unless the US army is now recruiting large numbers of recluse orphans, I would believe the numbers until they start withholding the names of the dead for the “privacy of the families” or some such.
People are blurring the definitions of casualties, and taking reports of preparations at military hospitals as more than preparations.
But such is life in the post-truth era of Truth Social and the like.
Now, when it comes to reports that Donald Trump is now wandering around the White House guessing people’s shoe sizes, and then having one of his aides order people shoes, and then everyone wearing ill-fitting cheap shoes to avoid offending him… this I believe.
https://bsky.app/profile/netw3rk.bsky.social/post/3mgnikz5n322v
Back in the ’70s I met a guy who graduated from High School about the same time I did (class off 1966). He told me about the summer job he had at O’Hare Airport in Chicago. Overnight shift. Moving cargo from airplanes to on site temporary storage. He said that a lot of the cargo he moved was coffins. More and more as time went on. When he mentioned this to his supervisors that somebody should bring this to the attention of the public he was told to keep his mouth shut.
OK, I admit to being a supercilious pedant, but “straights of Hormuz” hurts my teeth. It is all over the internet. What about the full spectrum of human sexuality?
@Gustopher:
They may try to claim a dozen or so dead did not die of combat wounds, but died with combat wounds.
@Kathy:
Recall that in 2020 the administration was eager to declare “no casualties” after an Iranian missile strike on a US base in Iraq resulted in no US fatalities, but dozens of injuries. Per NPR, 2/11/2020:
Why right-wing media can’t stop Candace Owens (Salon)
Haha. Rock on, Frankencandace lol
@DK:
I just can’t stop listening to Candace Owens!!!
(Because I never started.)
Well, that’s reassuring:
Trump:
I’m increasingly convinced that Trump lives in a fantasy world, in which others who know how to press his buttons, such as Netnyahu, are able to manipulate him. Depending on which ambition, resentment, or fear, is currently foremost in his mind.
And once he’s fixated on something, reasonable argument or questioning to the contrary just bounces off, and probably provokes anger.
This time though, he’s jammed himself into a mincing machine which it’s going to be difficult to get out of easily.
Because he has both an Iranian opponent, and an Israeli ally, neither of whom have much interest in backing off.
And at the same time a Hormuz Straits and related economic situation, which are of minimal concern to either Netanyahu or Khamenei, but which is driving both allies and neutrals into sheer fury with all three belligerents, and has the prospect of enough collateral economic damage to the US sufficient to wreck the Republicans in November.
The only obvious get-out’s from this trap are either to double-down on war, and hope for Iranian collapse before the global economy falls over. Possibly to opt for a “limited ground war” to secure the northern coast of the straits, and maybe send special forces in to assist rebels.
Can you spell “quagmire”?
I doubt the appeal of that to GoP voters either
Or negotiate, somehow, with Iran, and be effectively humiliated by leaving the regime in place, and awiting its chance for revenge. And Israel (and possibly the Arabians, who did not want this war), furious, which may matter. Assuming Netanyahu doesn’t sabotage any such attempt.
I fear Trump failed to read the most important line in Machaivelli’s The Prince:
“Never get high on your own supply, bro.”
Probably. 😉
Two quick shops in town across the street from each other have regular unleaded priced at $3.599/gal with no discounts applied. Both up 20¢/gal from yesterday and up 60¢/gal since it was
$2.999/gal March 2.
@JohnSF:
El Taco’s been dropping hints all day he wants to pick up his ball and go home. We’ll see if Bibi lets him.
The Republiqans are going to risk starting a civil war by stealing the midterms.
@JohnSF:
It’s hubris. Not quite Demosthenes but the modern interpretation of the word. A runaway ego and native stupidity, perhaps complicated by dementia, with the morals and conscience of a psychopath.
He’s going to declare victory and try to back away. He’s already bored and now higher gas prices? Even he knows that’s not good. Release the strategic reserve, announce that all our objectives have been met, demand a medal and wonder why we even need an election. It will work with his cult, GOP Congress will agree, and voters will go through the GOP in the midterms like the Grim Reaper.
More intel that Fatso ignored.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-intelligence-assessment-trump-ad20c1f1168d4318af516d7b19d372e7?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share
But, yeah, he’s getting ready to TACO.
@JohnSF: Very much agree. Trump is realizing this is VERY unpopular and wants to quit. Bibi, however, doesn’t.
Saw a think-tank Iran expert on the news last night who stated with confidence that the new Khamenei lost his dad, his mom, his wife, a sister, an uncle, two nephews and his son in the first strikes. “Martyrdom ready” likely state of mind. The IRGC’s decision to select the person who best represents a middle finger indicates he has company.
As it looks now there’s a lot of people who still need to be killed before the IRGC is no more. How do you do that without occupation? You don’t.
Reminds of Olmert apparently thinking air power could do it all in 2006 Lebanon. Found out the hard way it can’t, and as he too failed to gin up the Israeli people for a war before hand, had no public support for mobilization to conduct a ground campaign to finish it off.
In a way, the Iran War (aka Gulf War III), is a Walt Disney War.
@dazedandconfused: @Daryl:
Bibi to Trump: Now is no time to go soft, we have to remain hard, not flaccid, rigid not limp, engorged with righteousness. Also, three words: Trump Tower Teheran.
@Michael Reynolds:
Thucydides looks down, shakes his head, says “Thusly I informed you.”
One thing is, after this sh!tshow, the Arabians, especially if left with a glowering Pasdaran rule in Iran, are going to recalculate their alliances.
Either China or India (or a reconciled, for now, combination, based on shared interest in secure hydrocarbons supply?) may look more attractive than the US and Israel.
Israel has power, but has made it plain it does not gice a tuppeny f@ck for Arabian interests, or any other.
Understandable in some respects from the Israeli pov, but it does not make them a realiable partner.
The US now seems rather capricious and incable of realistic palnning, either for coercive diplomacy, or decisive war.
It both initiated a war that the Arabians did not want, and has failed to plan for and allocate forces to ensure an end-state once war began that produces an non-borked termination.
The best hope for everyone now is that, somehow, both the Iranian regime collapses and a successor state can set up that controls all Iran, and can cope with a likely Pasadaran insurgency.
Also, rainbow coloured unicorns may yet graze contentedly on the plains of Persia.
But I wouldn’t bet on that, either.
@dazedandconfused:
Israel has an “end-state” that satisfies Netanyahu. Quite literally: END. STATE.
But that does not satisfy anyone else at all.
The propect of the general collapse of the coercive control of the IRGC in Iran seems unlikely, short of the effective obliteration of all oganised societt/economy in Iran. With dire consequences for Iranians, and their neighbours,
So its either a settlement of some sort with an enraged and resentful Pasadran, or a chaotic Iran in which insurgents can still plague the Gulf.
Meaning to prevent that, a “limited” ground forces commitment to secure the northern shores.
Neither outcome looks like happy fun times.
“I was wondering if someone would ask that. There is tape in the Oval Office.”
Alexander Butterfield 99
RIP
@JohnSF:
I’m expecting the same. The strait MUST be opened, and the Brits and the French are sending their carriers to the region. Not going to have allies to invade all of Iran but, by God and Sonny Jesus, the oil must flow.
Reminiscent of an old joke. Punchline:
“Well, are you gonna keep talking or are you gonna fish?“
@dazedandconfused:
Maybe the US will clear out, and we can get the Pakistani army to advance down the coast to Qeshm? And invite China to send a a ship ot two?
Except Pakistan is currently busy bashing the Taliban; and probably don’t fancy another insurgency on their plate.
Nor would India look fondly on Pakistan at Hormuz, I suspect.
It’s a mess.
And Iran has every incentive to continue to choke Hormuz, as closing the straits for a month would devastate the global economyTrump’s Presidency.
A useful deterrent against being struck again, perhaps?
We are going to see if the confidence of some (I suspect not the professionals in the Pentagon and State, but the “MAGA politicals” at senior levels in DoD and NSC) about drone supression by air power is justified.
I fear it won’t be.
The evidence from Ukraine indicates that supressing dispersed drones is non-trivial.
As of now my expectation is that Trump eventually declares a win and walks way, and the Arabians and other allies various assemble enough force to eventually persuade Iran to back off from the straits, in return for the IRGC still ruling Iran.
And the whole war ending up being rather pointless.
Apropos Dr. T’s recurring theme of weak parties. Apparently things are getting entertaining back where I grew up many years ago. An Uncle of mine was the Dem Sec of State for a few years back in the 50s. Things seem to have gone downhill considerably since. I’m rooting for injuries.
https://politicalwire.com/2026/03/09/north-dakota-republicans-skip-the-partys-endorsement/
El Taco is back to claiming Iran was about to attack “us” as well as Israel and other states in the region.
Good thing he prevented any of that from happening.
When confronted with evidence that a Tomahawk cruise missile hit the girl’s school in Iran, he said other countries use the Tomahawk, and that Iran has them.
The Tomahawk is produced solely by the US. A few other countries have purchased it, but none are players in this theater of performance war.
In particular Iran has none.
The late Shah purchased a hell of a lot of US weapons and hardware, some of which is still in use. For instance, Iran was the only country other than the US to deploy the F-14 Tomcat fighter. But the Islamic Revolution took place in 1979, while the Tomahawk entered service in 1983.
Granted St. Regan of Ronnie traded weapons to Iran for hostages held in Lebanon around that time, he wouldn’t have been stupid enough to include the most sophisticated, nuclear-capable cruise missile of his day in such deals (likely it was mostly spares and ammo for the hardware mentioned above).
Since no one else has noted it, Joe McDonald — the Joe in Country Joe and the Fish — died on Saturday, age 84. It wasn’t easy to be a near-draft-age anti-war guy in Nebraska in the late 60s/early 70s. The I-Feel-Like-I’m-Fixin’-to-Die Rag helped. More than 50 years on and the US government is still sending young people off to die or be crippled, and kill civilians for no meaningful purpose.
I admit that if Trump does chicken out, I’m hoping that the Iranians keep the Strait closed at least until the Arab countries around the Persian Gulf pay up all of the billions of dollars that rebuilding is going to cost.
Alexander Butterfield has died. I was a library grunt at a DC law firm during Watergate at the beginning of a lifelong interest in politics, when Butterfield announced that Nixon taped Oval Office conversations. All very pre-internet but the hearings were on with volume off. Then, “Shh!” We all knew immediately that this would drop Nixon.
I think everyone, at least everyone I knew, had started off thinking, “Nah, Nixon’s too smart, he’s going to win, why would he do something this stupid?” Then the slow-dawning lesson that smart is not the same thing as wise. See also: Bill Clinton and so many others.
@Michael Cain:..
See my post at 17:36 in yesterday’s Forum.
(Sun Mar. 8)
@Michael Reynolds: everyone is forgetting MBS’ involvement in this. I read reporting that he was badgering Fatso, to attack Iran, in the week or so before it took place.
I think Fatso is about two days from his “Mission Accomplished” moment.
@JohnSF:
The Brits, French, Chinese will use what influence they have to get this over with before they are prostrated by high oil prices and/or lack of The Precious, so I have some hope a deal can be reached.
A lot depends on how smart and rational the new Khamenei is. It appears the IRGC trusts him and is willing to follow his lead. If he is smart he’ll cut a deal to stop the war and get his nation back on it’s feet again while he plots his vengeance.
@dazedandconfused: Cut a deal on whose terms tho, that’s the sucky part. Few signs the mullahs and IRGC care about Iranians as a nation. Iran’s leaders seem content to let Iranians die while Western leaders squirm over oil shock. When the French military is first up off the bench, you know the free worid is in trouble.
With their high tolerance for martyrdom and dead Iranians, the Khamenei 2.0 regime has little incentive to come begging for a deal while our pedo president publicly signals panic, telling everyone he wants to end this war quickly — US allies similarly unnerved.
@Slugger: I’m watching MS NOW. They just showed a headline from The Hill saying “straights of Hormuz”. Randos online are one thing, The Hill claims to be a major professional operation.