Monday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. charontwo says:

    Uh-oh.

    This seems – not good.

    WaPo Gift

    TEL AVIV — A surge of additional U.S. forces to the Middle East and President Donald Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure have set the stage for what U.S. and Israeli security officials increasingly see as the war’s possible endgame: a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz and key energy installations.

    Reopening the strait — a critical conduit for global energy supplies — has emerged as perhaps the paramount objective of a war that security officials now believe is unlikely to achieve goals that briefly seemed possible at the outset of the U.S.-Israeli military operation, including overthrowing Iran’s theocratic regime and putting a nuclear weapon permanently out of Tehran’s reach.

    In Israel, Trump’s online threats have raised expectations that a new phase of the war could soon get underway with the arrival of additional U.S. firepower. In a sign of rising global anxiety over the political and economic instability, stock markets in Asia fell sharply on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei closing down 3.5 percent and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index finishing 6.5 percent lower.

    A contingent of 4,500 U.S. sailors and Marines is heading to the Middle East, including an infantry battalion landing team backed by helicopters, F-35 fighter jets and armored landing vehicles. The Pentagon also sped up the deployment of a similar unit, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, from San Diego, defense officials said last week.

    “Those Marines aren’t coming for decoration,” said an Israeli official, one of several who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military and intelligence issues.

    I have no words.

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  2. charontwo says:

    It’s hard keeping up, this just posted:

    WaPo

    Trump says U.S. is negotiating end to war with Iran

    Trump said he had told the U.S. military to postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, while talks proceed.

    President Donald Trump said Monday the United States is negotiating with Iran to end the three-week-old war, declaring that the two sides had two days of “very good and productive conversations” that will continue throughout this week.

    Trump said Iran and the United States have been negotiating a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” in a post to Truth Social. He said that he had told the U.S. military to postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, “SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.”

    This is a developing story. It will be updated.

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  3. Charley in Cleveland says:

    @charontwo: Um, who is he talking to, and what power does that person/entity have to commit Iran?

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  4. drj says:

    @charontwo:

    It’s hard keeping up

    It sure is!

    Friday’s press gaggle. Barely exaggerated: at 12:03 PM, President Trump told reporters he wanted a ceasefire with Iran. At 12:05 he declared victory. At 12:07 he announced he was sending Marines. At 12:08 he said no boots on the ground. At 12:11 he said he did not want a ceasefire. At 12:16 he declared victory again. At 12:17 he asked for a ceasefire. At 12:23 he told NATO they were cowards. At 12:29 he said Iran was begging for a ceasefire. At 12:31 he said everything was perfect. At 12:36 he said $500 oil was a good thing. At 12:37 he demanded Iran open Hormuz. At 12:39 he said Hormuz was never closed. At 12:41 he said the US was not at war with Iran. At 12:42 he declared victory in Iran.

    With Trump, the only certainty is the grift:

    By 3:43 PM he told CBS he doesn’t want a ceasefire. By 5:13 PM – 13 minutes after futures markets closed for the weekend, in a coincidence that should be studied in every securities fraud textbook – he posted on Truth Social that the US is “getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts”. The S&P reversed more than 1% in seconds. QQQ had already surged 1.1% in the 80 minutes before the announcement, with call options flowing in at a pace that suggests someone, somewhere, had an itinerary.

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  5. charontwo says:

    @Charley in Cleveland:

    Good question. Iran has been denying they are willing to negotiate, has that changed? I have seen no such reports.

    I am going out for a morning walk now, will post some stuff when I get back, including something from an Israeli journalist.

    Meanwhile stock markets are (predictably) rallying, they always take Trump’s words seriously.

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  6. charontwo says:

    An Israeli assessment, very worth a read:

    Nadav Eyal

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  7. Kingdaddy says:

    Study shows that employees who believe in corporate BS are likely to be bad at their jobs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/23/corporate-speak-study

    No word on whether there will be a follow-up study about gullibility and citizenship.

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  8. charontwo says:

    Krugman is skeptical, video and transcript, 6 minutes:

    Krugman

    So saying that, oh, the Iranians have come to the table, probably big, strong Iranians with tears in their eyes, but anyway, that the Iranians have come to the table and that’s why we’re not doing what I said we would do is a very Trumpian out.

    Second, Why would the Iranians be making a deal at this point? We can talk a lot about how the war is going, but it’s pretty clear that as the Iranians are likely to see it, they’re winning. I mean, they’re not winning militarily, but that was never on the cards. They are, they have successfully turned what was supposed to be a lightning decapitation of their government into a protracted contest in relative ability to bear pain and all indications are that the Iranians are nowhere near cracking and all indications are that the United States, although obviously we’re not losing thousands of people, and we are having our whole life disrupted, but the American public really doesn’t like higher gas prices, does not believe Trump. The clock is ticking for Trump on this in a way that it is apparently not for the Iranian regime. So Iran has has the upper hand here. And very hard to see why they would be wanting to make a deal until they basically humiliated us substantially more.

    Finally, consider possible motives. Imagine that you were somebody close to Trump, somebody close enough to actually have an influence on his decisions as well as inside knowledge. Here’s what you could have done really just between last night and now. You could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures, at very high prices, Brent was over $112 over the weekend, then bought them back immediately after Trump’s announcement of triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said that is not happening. And you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit.

    To say that insider trading might be driving U.S. policy would have been outrageous. in the past. Who thinks that that’s beyond the realm of possibility now? So all of this could be happening.

    Last point to make here. Think about how much America’s position in the world has been weakened, not just by apparent failure to subdue a fourth-rate power, but by the fact that everybody now knows that you cannot trust anything, cannot trust any promises the United States makes, you cannot count on the United States carrying through with promises, with threats, not just promises, but threats are also incredible in the sense of not being all credible, and that the default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie.

    That is a really, really bad thing. That is, you know, influence in the world power is not simply a matter of missiles and bombs, although we seem to be running low on those too. It’s very much a matter of people taking what you say and what you promise and what you threaten seriously. And we are not ruled by serious people.

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  9. Kathy says:

    An Air Canada regional jet collided with a fire truck at LaGuardia airport.

    The flight crew died in the crash, and there were a number of serious injuries.

    Of note, reports say at the time of the accident, only one air traffic controller was working the tower and handling ground traffic.

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  10. Jay L. Gischer says:

    @charontwo: Well, if Trump is creating a narrative that supports him winding down and caving while talking like he won, that’s fine with me.

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  11. charontwo says:

    Here is a piece about how decisions get made in Trump’s management style. This includes what sort of issues get paid attention to vs. issues that are ignored and neglected. It’s about how Trump’s behavior shapes the way all the underlings function, how they get Trump to pay attention to whatever.

    Henry Farrell Programmable Mutter

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  12. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:

    Valerie Perrine 82
    RIP

    I remember her for the role of Honey.
    The wife of Lenny Bruce (Dustin Hoffman) in the film Lenny.

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  13. Sleeping Dog says:

    @charontwo:

    Most interesting tidbit in this article is the note that the IDF is concerned with the escalating settler terrorism in the WB.

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  14. Kathy says:

    You may have read El Taco’s so-called administration lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea (yes, Iranian oil*)

    Remember the “pallets of cash” Obama was accused of giving Iran? That was part of the JCPOA, and was simply returning Iran’s money, with interest. It amounted to about $1.7 billion.

    The unsanctioned oil means El Taco is letting Iran have an estimated $14 billion once it’s sold.

    This beyond who the bloody hell lifts sanctions on a country they’re at war with?

    *Just to clarify, the sanctions were lifted on oil produced by Iran.

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  15. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:

    @Kathy:..who the bloody hell lifts sanctions on a country they’re at war with?

    A traitor?

    United States Constitution
    Article III Section 3
    Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort.

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  16. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    @Gregory Lawrence Brown:
    Not to mention it totally undercuts the mooted “seize Kharg Island” play the adminstration has been peddling.
    But then, believing multiple incompatible things at once is this administrations default.
    I doubt Trump can even grasp that they are contradictory.

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  17. Kathy says:
  18. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    You know, the secret talks El Taco had with Iran were so secret– “How secret were they?” They were so secret, he didn’t even invite Iran to attend them.

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  19. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    Not that new.
    Russian tactical ballistics have had cluster munitions warheads for a long time.
    I’d assume the tricky bit is to engineer the fusing and separation timing at high incoming velocity.

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  20. dazedandconfused says:

    @Kathy:
    I initially thought that highly unlikely, LGA down to one controller in the tower? As busy as that airspace is??

    But the tape being played in the web right how has the same voice handling Ground telling flights to go around after the incident. One guy seems to have been handling both. Perhaps it was two-man but somebody had a bathroom break. The investigation will tell the tale.

    Chilling to think of someone who has made that kind of mistake having to “keep it together” immediately to get all the planes in approach going around, which involves hand-off communications in a big fat hurry with the over-lying Departure controllers. His job to get the recue trucks rolling too. His work-load went right through the roof in the midst of a moment that typically renders people stunned and inoperative.

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  21. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    What I got from the story, is that it’s harder for interceptors to stop cluster submunitions if they are released high enough.

    Custer bombs are nasty weapons. I mean, nasty even for weapons.

    @dazedandconfused:

    One of the aviation blogs yesterday noted there are about 6 flights total in the period when the sole controller was on duty. There’s been buzz for over a year about a shortage of controllers.

    So I can believe it.

    Provisionally, because early reports are often wrong.

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  22. Kathy says:

    On lighter topics, the office microwave was sent to the shop today. At long last, it was the magnetron (that’s what I always suspect, so with enough breakdowns I was bound to be “right” eventually).

    This is the third repair. Each has been quick, and each has cost less than a new microwave would have. I’m not sure whether all three combined add up to still less than a new one or not.

    The two prior repairs included a control circuit and a sensor. Now with a new magnetron, the appliance should be good for another several years, one hopes. or something else might go wrong with it next week or next month.

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  23. Erik says:

    @dazedandconfused: I read that his workload was already high because a flight had just rejected takeoff for a “bad smell” in the aft galley that was sickening the flight attendants seated there, but there was no gate immediately available so the flight declared an emergency. That’s why the fire truck that was hit was moving-they were responding to the emergency call. So in addition the the airplane that crashed he still was dealing with the other declared emergency too. I hope he gets the support and mental health care he will need to deal with this. It’s got to be a terrible feeling of guilt even if he was set up for failure.

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