More Post-Debate Polling
More polling that contradicts the panic.
Via Bloomberg: Biden Narrows Gap With Trump in Swing States Despite Debate Loss.
President Joe Biden registered his best showing yet in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states, even as voters offered withering appraisals of his debate performance amid panic within his party.
Republican Donald Trump led Democrat Biden by only 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in the critical states needed to win the November election. That’s the smallest gap since the poll began last October. Biden now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s within the poll’s statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, and is farthest behind in the critical state of Pennsylvania.
Setting aside the real concerns about Biden, I again would note two things.
First, these numbers do not comport with the level of panic being displayed in the punditry and by some politicians. Indeed, the numbers continue to show that the fundamentals of the race have not really changed after the debate and the subsequent media firestorm
Second, numbers like this are going to make it very hard to convince Biden, or those who support and counsel him, to get out of the race.
This post is not an argument for, or against, Biden remaining in the race, but these are noteworthy numbers as we all assess this situation. But, again, for me at least, there are two parallel conversations here. One is whether a Democratic victory is more, or less, likely with Biden remaining in the race. The other is what it would take to convince Biden to exit or remain.
On the latter, I remain convinced that getting him to exit will be very, very difficult (and the behavior we have seen this week has directly comported with my expectations). And I continue to think that any neutral-to-good (or even only slightly bad) polling outcomes will bolster his self-perception that staying is the right choice.
Here is something from a newsletter I get that is pretty much along those lines:
I don’t know a way to link to this, so will just quote the whole second half:
I think the sentence I highlighted is important, pushing Biden out will piss off plenty of people.
Also, the GOP is desperate that the campaign be focused on Biden and not on Trump, A ditch Biden maneuver will help the GOP keep focus away from the mant GOP problems = Project 2025, SCOTUS, Trump’s not even controversial obvious dementia etc.
From my quote above:
Relevant to that, from a different newsletter:
My emphasis.
@charontwo:
What we are experiencing, in real time, is Christian Nationalist and Federalist Society/Leonard Leo project to install fascism. Don’t let them.
If Biden stays in, and the panic forces him to be less stage manged and lackadaisical (what is this “If Trump wins, I’m at peace” bs?) — maybe a little panic is good.
If the panic forces Biden out, and replacing him with Kamala doesn’t prove disastrous, then the panic is good as well.
But my anti-Trumpism makes me agree with this take — Why is the pundit class so desperate to push Biden out of the race? (The Guardian):
@TheRyGuy: But you worship Donald Trump — a Putin-puppet pedophile, thug, and rapist who incited a terror attack on Congress.
I doubt politicians, pundits, or really anybody cares what you pedo-loving Trump trash think of them.
@charontwo:
Ask and ye shall retrieve
Substacks are on a web site, in addition to email. It’s just a matter of finding it and copying the link.
Most people don’t pay that much attention to politics. War, peace? Very few of us are directly involved, and only a minority is in the frontline of any conflict. Taxes, the deficit? The vast majority has not seen much difference between the GOP and the Dems. Cultural values? That waiter with tattoos and painted nails seems pretty nice. Now, there are people who hang on every eructation of the pundits, but they are like those who know batting averages of AAA players, a committed minority.
@TheRyGuy:
Everyone who values the ideas of freedom and personal liberty would panic over the prospect of a second Trump term.
Not everyone is as eager as you to grovel before a fascist thug. Not everyone lacks self-respect, you know.
@charontwo:
Putting the focus on Trump and the many GOP problems is a group project and Democrats have to start to recognize what Bannon does – the press cannot be counted on as allies in this fight. The good news is that the Democrats don’t have to “flood the zone with sh!t,” since the Democrats have two very favorable narratives to drive to the forefront.
First, the Republicans are a dumpster fire. It’s not just Trump, but everyone in the party who has bought into authoritarian rule over the governance through the consent of the governed. (This certainly appears to be the whole party – from SCOTUS appointees through the think tanks to the Trumpist base.)
Second, the Democrats have a strong, positive case with the current administrations’ successes on policy and legislation. The bench is strong too, so run out the surrogates like Buttigieg, Whitmer, and Newsom.
I read a quote from Heather Cox Richardson earlier today who said, “I don’t care if we elect Biden or Harris, or anybody else. I care that we recognize running currently against that ticket is somebody who is trying to destroy our country.” We need to ignore the horserace and focus on the stakes. This was true before the debate, it’s true now, and it will be true every day until November.
@DK:
Agreed 100%.
Biden trying to act Presidential is awful and stage managed.
When Biden is raw and genuine, he’s genuinely likable, and comes across as great but inarticulate. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be the glad-handing politician that he is — he loves the glad-handing, and his enthusiasm for it comes through. It’s genuine glad-handing. He’s been described as a golden retriever in the past, and that’s what we love about him.
But, he needs to cut the malarkey and just say that half of what Trump says is pure bullshit. This is the man widely and approvingly quoted for saying “this is a big fucking deal,” and he needs to show that genuine side. It’s clearly what he thinks, but he doesn’t say it strongly enough to cut through the narrative. If the sewer pipe of lies that threatens to undermine American democracy isn’t worth a mild vulgarity, what is?
Change the conversation.
And then hang onto that message with the tenacity of Kendrick Lamar calling Drake a pedophile. That is message discipline.
(Also, he should quietly get checked out by a doctor to make sure the terrible debate where he appeared confused and lost wasn’t a sign of mental decline)
@Gustopher:
He is already closely and continuously monitored by his physician. There is no concern about possible mental decline.
@charontwo: That’s what they would have said about Reagan.
ETA: or Trump, for that matter.
@charontwo: I live in a rural area and have a rather large circle of friends acquaintances most, but not all of them over 55 and white, and it’s hard to find one who is supportive of Biden staying in the race. I also lived in Columbus for 30 years and the same thing is true for just about every Democrat I know there. The feeling that Biden is too old and feeble to take on the vicious and malevolent threat that Trump and the Republican party pose has been bubbling under the surface for some time and the debate confirmed the worst of those fears. The Democrats are in a contest they simply cannot lose, and the man we saw a week ago Thursday is what they’re sending out to fight this fight? The President and those around him need to seriously think about his place in history, for if he stubbornly stays in the race and goes down to a decisive defeat because he was seen as simply to old for the job, and the country descends into some low level civil war or worse, history will be very unkind. I’ve always considered Biden to be a good and decent man. He’s been a good President during very turbulent times. I will absolutely vote for him and will do everything I can to get others to vote for him, but I have a great dread of what will happen if he remains the candidate.
@mcnp: I really wish that the situation were a simple as *just get Biden to withdraw and then everything will be fine.* Alas, it isn’t that simple
https://x.com/DjQueOne/status/1810020117532799355
https://x.com/piper4missouri/status/1809938266575003812?t=kWD241RJU4GF7BzUxrMAXQ&s=03
Polls have made no sense this entire cycle, but these make even less sense. A 10 point difference between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? Not buying that for a second. Makes as much sense as seniors swinging left while young Black voters swing right.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: I didn’t say everything would be fine. The outcome could still be awful. But, with Biden we’ve been sleepwalking towards a disaster. Maybe we’re waking up just in time. It’s a big maybe, but I’ve come to believe it’s our best chance.
A powerful grass roots movement has formed behind Joe. Seems folks remember he is ranked among our best presidents and Trump our worst. Seems many folks are angry at the MSM for its obvious ageism. Seems Americans are not as shallow as many pundits think we are.
@TheRyGuy: “As much as I loathe the punditry and most politicians, I will give them this credit. I think their panic over Biden’s debate performance had less to do with losing to Trump and more to do with genuine concern over having a mentally and physically compromised President.”
Well, that’s lie. These people hand-wave away Trump’s insanity.