As I promised on OTB Radio tonight, here are my predictions for 2008 to go along with James’ and Dave’s, some of which may actually come true, though I’m not sure I’d bet on that.
U.S. Politics:
- Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination, and proceed to defeat John McCain in the general election.
- Prominent Republican politicians will buck the conservative orthodoxy and take climate change seriously, relegating anti-climate change forces to the political fringe.
- “‘President Bush will not be impeached by the House of Representatives’ — nor will any past or former administration official be tried for war crimes.”*
- Ron Paul will take at least third place in several primaries, much to the surprise of many, and will not drop out of the race until the last vote is counted. His candidacy will lead to no lasting change in the Republican Party.
- In many localities, more law enforcement resources will be directed to locating and detaining illegal immigrants. Violent crime will rise as a result.
World Politics:
- “The United States will have 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at year’s end. The trend toward lower body counts will continue but civil society will remain an elusive goal.”*
- Pervez Musharraf will not be President of Pakistan by the end of the year.
- London will continue to surpass New York City as the financial capital of the world.
- Osama bin Laden will remain at large.
- Iran will not possess any nuclear weapons at the end of the year.
Society and Culture:
- Roe v. Wade will not be overturned, even if there is an opportunity to do so.
- The Dark Knight will be the highest grossing motion picture of the year.
- “The New England Patriots will beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl, becoming the first 19-0 team in NFL history.”*
- At least one Division I NCAA or NFL football team currently in the middle of the standings will stop punting on fourth down and consequently will end up as one of the top five teams by the end of the season.
- The writers’ strike will last at least until the Screen Actor’s Guild contract expires.
