Muslims Shocked—SHOCKED!—Trump is Pro-Israel

Of leopards and faces.

Reuters (“Muslims who voted for Trump upset by his pro-Israel cabinet picks“):

U.S. Muslim leaders who supported Republican Donald Trump to protest against the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza and attacks on Lebanon have been deeply disappointed by his cabinet picks, they tell Reuters.

“Trump won because of us and we’re not happy with his secretary of state pick and others,” said Rabiul Chowdhury, a Philadelphia investor who chaired the Abandon Harris campaign in Pennsylvania and co-founded Muslims for Trump.

Muslim support for Trump helped him win Michigan and may have factored into other swing state wins, strategists believe.

Trump picked Republican senator Marco Rubio, a staunch supporter of Israel for Secretary of State.

Earlier this year, Rubio said he would not call for a ceasefire in Gaza, and that he believed Israel should destroy “every element” of Hamas. “These people are vicious animals,” he added.

Trump also nominated Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and staunch pro-Israel conservative who backs Israeli occupation of the West Bank and has called a two state solution in Palestine “unworkable”, as the next ambassador to Israel.

He has picked Republican Representative Elise Stefanik, who called the UN a “cesspool of antisemitism” for its condemnation of deaths in Gaza, to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Rexhinaldo Nazarko, executive director of the American Muslim Engagement and Empowerment Network (AMEEN), said Muslim voters had hoped Trump would choose cabinet officials who work toward peace, and there was no sign of that.

“We are very disappointed,” he said.

“It seems like this administration has been packed entirely with neoconservatives and extremely pro-Israel, pro-war people, which is a failure on the on the side of President Trump, to the pro-peace and anti-war movement.”

Nazarko said the community would continue pressing to make its voices heard about ending the war in Gaza. “At least we’re on the map.”

Hassan Abdel Salam, a former professor at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities and co-founder of the Abandon Harris campaign, which endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein, said Trump’s staffing plans were not surprising, but had proven even more extreme that he had feared.

“It’s like he’s going on Zionist overdrive,” he said. “We were always extremely skeptical … Obviously we’re still waiting to see where the administration will go, but it does look like our community has been played.”

While Tulsi Gabbard and others are hardly neocons and Trump’s “America First” mindset is the opposite of neoconservative interventionism, it was rather clear all along that he was closely aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli hard right. Hell, he’s the guy who finally moved the embassy to Jerusalem after decades of posturing by other Republican leaders.

Although I fully understood why Arab Americans would be angry at the Biden administration’s support of the Israeli war effort, it was always clear that Kamala Harris was going to be more likely to demand restraint than Trump. So, a protest vote against her on a single issue where her opponent was even less aligned with them was always a matter of cutting off their nose to spite their face.

In fairness, though, the campaign did send positive signals:

Several Muslim and Arab supporters of Trump said they hoped Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting director of national intelligence, would play a key role after he led months of outreach to Muslim and Arab American communities, and was even introduced as a potential next secretary of state at events.

Another key Trump ally, Massad Boulos, the Lebanese father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany, met repeatedly with Arab American and Muslim leaders.

Both promised Arab American and Muslim voters that Trump was a candidate for peace who would act swiftly to end the wars in the Middle East and beyond. Neither was immediately reachable.

Trump made several visits to cities with large Arab American and Muslim populations, include a stop in Dearborn, a majority Arab city, where he said he loved Muslims, and Pittsburgh, where he called Muslims for Trump “a beautiful movement. They want peace. They want stability.”

Bill Bazzi, mayor of neighboring Dearborn Heights, who endorsed Trump, said he met the president-elect three times and still believed he would work to end the war, despite the cabinet appointments.

Rola Makki, the Lebanese American, Muslim vice chair for outreach of the Michigan Republican Party, agreed.

“I don’t think everyone’s going to be happy with every appointment Trump makes, but the outcome is what matters,” she said.

“I do know that Trump wants peace, and what people need to realize is that there’s 50,000 dead Palestinians and 3,000 dead Lebanese, and that’s happened during the current administration.”

I must admit, that signaling flew under my radar.

To the extent he cares about policy, I do believe that Trump “wants peace.” But, of course, the rub is: on what terms?

With regard to the Ukraine War, I strongly suspect that it’s on terms favorable to Russia. With regard to this conflict, I suspect the terms look an awful lot like unconditional surrender.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Professor of Security Studies. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Lucysfootball says:

    In fairness, though, the campaign did send positive signals
    And Trump and his advisors have a pretty good track record of being honest. I think any Muslim who voted for Trump thinking he was going to try to do anything to help the Palestinians in Gaza is probably in the market for Trump gold-plated sneakers,
    As Bugs Bunny says, “What a maroon!”

    12
  2. Jen says:

    Well as long as Tiffany’s father in law is on the case, we can all rest assured that…

    eh, never mind. Welcome to the FO phase of FAFO.

    14
  3. Kevin says:

    As with almost everything Trump says, he’s greatly aided by talking so vaguely about everything, because he has almost no core beliefs. Everyone wants wars to end. The sticky part is always on whose terms?

    But anyone who thought Trump would do anything that might be seen as siding with the weaker side in anything was deluding themselves.

    15
  4. Not the IT Dept. says:

    They should wait for a year and then see if they feel the same way. Getting a photo-op with Netanyahu means sweet diddly; in an American election year Bibi would have posed with anyone whose name was on a ballot for anything.

    I think Elon Musk going to Iran is not pro-Israel. I’m kind of surprised James isn’t writing about that yet or about the “Warriors Board” that’s going to vet the existing generals for some unspecified sins. James?

    1
  5. wr says:

    With all due respect…

    Fuck these guys. They did this to themselves. Everybody knew Trump was lying. And if they didn’t, they could have looked at the famous Abraham Accords, which solved the problems in the Middle East by completely ignoring the needs and wants of the Palestinians in favor of the Israeli hard right and the Saudi oligarchs.

    21
  6. Kathy says:

    When the scorpion spends his days bragging about his venom, and his willingness to use it, and has tried to sting you many times in the past, what makes you think you should believe him when he says he won’t sting you again.

    Also, never vote for a convicted felon. They’re not exactly trustworthy.

    11
  7. Scott F. says:

    @Kathy:

    Also, never vote for a convicted felon. They’re not exactly trustworthy.

    This. A thousand times this.

    Everybody who gave their vote to Trump (Muslims to working class to establishment GOP) gave it to a convicted criminal – one who’s been indicted for multiple other felonies, including inciting insurrection. They did this to my country with eyes wide open. How dare they voice regrets now?

    20
  8. Sleeping Dog says:

    Gee, who’d a thunk that trump would be all in on Bibi? While American Arabs are incredulous, the Israeli right is seeing the green light to annex the West Bank and expel the Palestinians.

    4
  9. Modulo Myself says:

    Look, any Democrat who believed the Biden/Harris administration cared or would do anything for Palestinians got played and is way more gullible than some Muslim-American who voted for Trump because of Gaza.

    1
  10. Rob1 says:

    Rexhinaldo Nazarko, executive director of the American Muslim Engagement and Empowerment Network (AMEEN):

    “We are very disappointed,” he said.

    And we are very disappointed our fellow voters didn’t see this coming before they assigned their protest vote to Trump.

    9
  11. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Modulo Myself:
    What the hell are you talking about?

    Biden may be the only reason the WB is not already annexed, and Gaza isn’t being marched into the desert. Under Trump Netanyahu will have no restraints at all, and if you think this is all the damage Israel can do, wake up.

    44,000 dead in Gaza, still ~2% of the population. Famine has not arrived – yet. Rampant disease has not happened – yet. They are still getting water – for now. Israel has not pushed settlers in – so far. The inability to distinguish between bad and worse is the hallmark of the extremist.

    27
  12. Rob1 says:

    @Modulo Myself:

    “way more gullible” ????

    How so, “way more?”

    8
  13. al Ameda says:

    Is it fair to ask how much more ‘surprised’ Muslim-American Trump voters are going to be when Jared Kushner gets the go ahead for a ‘Trump-like’ luxury resort development located on the shores of the Mediterranean where Gaza used to be?

    If so, I will withdraw my question.

    18
  14. Rob1 says:

    @Lucysfootball:

    And Trump and his advisors have a pretty good track record of being honest.

    You omitted “/s.”

    4
  15. Scott says:

    @Michael Reynolds: For perspective, 2% of US population is 6,700,000.

    3
  16. Modulo Myself says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Yeah, you’re right. It’s going great for the Palestinians in Gaza. I don’t even understand what the big deal is. The rest of the world is filled with extremists. We should Americans like you everywhere. You can explain reality and and then go off about WW2. Problem solved.

    @Rob1:

    They’re like nice Southern racists who don’t use the n-word (in public) in 1954 and shake their head about lynchings.

    3
  17. DeD says:

    As we say in the more common vernacular: Dafuq did you THINK was gonna happen???

    12
  18. Mister Bluster says:

    @Rob1:..You omitted “/s.”

    I see it!

    1
  19. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Modulo Myself:
    Oh FFS. Yeah, that’s what I said: Gaza is a paradise. The fact that you resort to dishonest nonsense makes the case that you – not the whole world – are an extremist.

    11
  20. DK says:

    @DeD: Haha.

    My schauden is fully frueded on this one.

    10
  21. Kathy says:

    I’m confused about the photo on top. Are they holding hands in some pseudo macho kind of way? Are they arm wrestling badly? Do they not know how to shake hands?

  22. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Scott:
    Yes it is. Wars do tend to kill a lot of people. The US equivalent to the ~1200 Israelis who died on October 7 would be just under 50,000.

    If say, Nuevo Leon (Mexican border province) killed 50,000 Americans, and continued missile attacks, what do you think we’d do? We lost 3000 on 9/11 and invaded two countries, killing God knows how many. Would we allow Nuevo Leon, under any circumstances, to continue firing missiles into Texas?

    Wars force hard choices – fight on against all odds? Or surrender? The Palestinians have no power, while Netanyahu has support in Israel, and he has the power to turn 2% to 5% or 10%. Or more. This is a very dangerous time for Palestinians. They could lose everything.

    7
  23. Kathy says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Minir quibble, Nuevo Leon barely has any kind of border with the US. See the map. IN that area, most of the border is in Tamaulipas (and no one ever accused Mexico of drawing regular shapes in state borders).

    But assuming Nuevo Leon did just that, you’d think Mexico’s president would send troops to stop them. No one fills that role vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza.

    2
  24. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Scott F.:

    Everybody who gave their vote to Trump (Muslims to working class to establishment GOP) gave it to a convicted criminal – one who’s been indicted for multiple other felonies, including inciting insurrection. They did this to my country with eyes wide open. How dare they voice regrets now?

    You know, I have such a strong identification with these feelings. I feel so aggrieved and angry. What were they thinking?

    And then I think I need to see clearly, and maintain my dignity and my humanity. Resentment and grievance got us into this situation, it’s not going to get us out of it.

    I don’t know if we will have to take to the streets or worse. There is something here worth saving though. There are those whose plan is to burn the whole thing down. I expect they will have some success. Not only do we need to have the resolve to stop them, we need to be able to rebuild those things and those people who have been damaged.

    That’s my sense right now. I will use what abilities I have to keep people safe.

    7
  25. Jay L Gischer says:

    It is hard for me to read a sentence like, “It looks like our community has been played” and not explode.

    How can you spend a lifetime with Donald Trump in the media and not know that if he isn’t playing you now, he will be playing you tomorrow, or he played you yesterday?

    To me, a statement such as “I love Muslims. It’s a beautiful movement!” reeks of insincerity, and it always has. Trump was the guy with the Muslim travel ban. Did they forget that? Does him saying “I love Muslims” cancel that out somehow?

    “A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest”.

    There will come a time when I will need to forgive these people so that we can move forward. When that time comes, I will do what is needed. I’m not looking forward to it though.

    8
  26. just nutha says:

    @Modulo Myself: Based on what I’ve seen in these very comment threads, Democrat “care” about Palestinians is only lip service.

    2
  27. just nutha says:

    @Michael Reynolds: And thank you for making my point.

    But I am interested in this theory of yours that Biden is somehow the only reason that the WB hasn’t been annexed. Biden’s been better than I thought he’d be,* but come on.

    *With the exception of the one-term caretaker government illusion y’all had.

    2
  28. Michael Reynolds says:

    @just nutha:
    And your plan is?

    Ceasefire? Until Hamas fires another missile? Or is the plan for Israel just to accept ongoing attack?

    Maybe the famous two-state solution, bringing Hamas and the PA together to form a happy little failed state between Israel and Jordan?

    There. Is. No. Solution. Except for ones none of want to see. And that’s what people who really GAF about Palestinians are hoping to forestall. Because it can be much, much worse. The choice is between bad and worse, there is no ‘good.’

    And now, Trump, who owes everything to unhinged White Evangelicals looking for armageddon, gets to decide the future for Palestinians. When Israel formally annexes the WB, and Settlers move into Gaza and squeeze the Palestinians into ever smaller spaces, you can tell me how it doesn’t matter, because after all, it was already bad.

    Prior to October 7 it was very tough in Gaza. Now it’s rubble. I see rubble as being worse than, ‘very tough.’ And there are still things worse than rubble. For my part, I’d like to see Palestinians live with the hope of maybe, some day, finding an answer. I am afraid of what may come next. Aren’t you?

    9
  29. Rob1 says:

    @Modulo Myself:

    @Rob1:

    They’re like nice Southern racists who don’t use the n-word (in public) in 1954 and shake their head about lynchings.

    And…. you’ve offered up a non-sequitur deflection in response to my request that you elaborate on “way more gullible.” So, “not way more.”

    4
  30. Gustopher says:

    Arab Americans voting for Trump because of Biden’s policies in Gaza? It’s just sad that it won’t be their faces the leopard eats.

    8
  31. Rob1 says:

    @just nutha:

    *With the exception of the one-term caretaker government illusion y’all had.

    You mean remedial/restorational government, which we will all be looking for after another 4 year round of “hair of the dog” sh*t show.

    2
  32. Rob1 says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    The only difference now (and we have witnessed this in recent elections), the diaspora of people with Palestinian roots is several generations deep in the West. These younger members have formed cross ethnic bonds, and a much larger voice is emerging in Western countries against status quo treatment of the Palestinian issue of autonomy. Moreover, population growth in surrounding countries continues to out pace that of Israel. Combined with cooling attitudes from the West, Israel is falling behind the curve of sustainable “potency” in confronting their situation. Wait until our warming climate places maximum pressure on the area’s already strained water resources.

  33. Modulo Myself says:

    @Rob1:

    The mark of gullibility is going back to the same con for a second serving. I doubt very few Muslim-Americans are going to fall for Trump again. Whereas the people who really think the Biden-Harris administration had any concerns at all about Palestinians are going to fall for same scam again. They can’t help it.

  34. The Q says:

    We are overlooking the tremendous Democratic success in welcoming marginalized minorities into the great mainstream of America. It’s been our goal to boost inclusiveness and incorporate these culturally diverse communities into the “melting pot”

    Congratulations Muslims and “Hispanic Latinos”. You’ve been able to join the club of white dupes for Trump, a mostly exclusive club whose members were typically white redneck flyover trash that got duped as well.

    As a Democrat, I’m so proud of our party’s success in proving these minorities can be just as stupid and ignorant as whitey.

    This is a tremendous accomplishment. We brought DEI to the GOP. Muslims and “Latinos” have gained equality with the traitor/trailer trash segment of the equally duped

    7
  35. Grewgills says:

    @Modulo Myself:
    They already fell for it a second time. This was the second serving.

    6
  36. Lounsbury says:

    First, the confusion of Arab with Muslim for the heavily Levantine Arab Americans is a significant error and inaccuracy. And quite irritating.

    The Levantine Arab émigrés are rather heavily non Muslim and generally the Levantines are quite the salade of sectes. And as Levantine Arab Xians generally are extremely anti Israel confusion of Arab with Muslim on this subject is more egregious than usual.

    Of course equally confusion of Muslim with Arab is inaccurate

    Rabiul Chowdhury

    Mr Chowdhury being Asian not Arab at all, I should wager Muslim demographics in America are over weight to Asian Muslim (Pakistan, bangla, India, etc) rather than Arab.

    The Levantine voters cutting off nose to spite face… I personally sadly have a Xian Palestinian Jordanian America friend she voted for Trump as per her… on the basis of Gaza…. and Trump would do better. The inevitability of her deception is somewhat sad, but lovely as she is, the hot-headed thinking in réaction….

    @just nutha:
    Biden évidently is not the only thing although perhaps a small contribution.

    EU trade slamming shut given trade balances should count I rather think more, America Israël would largely count on being sold on going along. But EU, no. And trade shutting w EU would have real pain. More artful to engage in slow drip drip bantustans policy for extended thinly plausible deniability.

    Now of course from a data POV I rather doubt the number of dupes is large, versus the number who in fact voted for Trump for economic and social reasons entirely American domestic with perhaps a slight leavening of Gaza, that os rather like the Latinos and Asians who voted for Trump the the Great shock of the identity focused largely white Left bobo burgeousie Left.

    But Anectdote journalism is easier to write than data journalism.

    2
  37. Scott F. says:

    @Gustopher:

    It’s just sad that it won’t be their faces the leopard eats.

    There’s the rub. Hungry leopards are indiscriminate.

    We must protect the most vulnerable to the best of our ability and establish the blue jurisdictions in this country as sanctuaries of resistance. The rest need to feel the consequences of their votes good and hard.

    And the last thing I want to hear is whining about unmet expectations or surprise about the choices Trump ends up making. Trump didn’t remotely try to hide that he is a vile, corrupt, mendacious, criminal grifter. I hope the mobs turn on him before he destroys it all. Then we can rebuild.

    5
  38. dazedandconfused says:

    The Ds had to avoid saying anything really negative about Israel…or felt they did anyway. There wasn’t a good way to present themselves as supporting “Muslims” in the Levant. In the collective mind of the US a carefully planted notion that there is no difference between the words “Arab” or “Palestinian” and “Muslim” set deep roots. ,
    Yes, Trump wants peace. But so did Stalin when he killed all his enemies. So did Adolf when he imagined it could only be achieved by killing all the Slavs, Jews, and Gypsies. Jared wants peace by “just get rid of the people” in Gaza. “When we talk about war, we really are talking about peace” said George the Dumber.

    Everybody wants peace. Caveat Emptor.

    3
  39. The Q says:

    Missiles flying in from Mexico, a sovereign, legally recognized nation state against the US, another sovereign, legally recognized nation state, and the US response to said attack is of a wholly different nature than an attack from previously occupied Israeli territory (that was almost universally recognized as illegal despite the Israeli disengagement, under international law) and Israel. This “nuance” makes all the difference in the world.

    Let’s muse that Palestine, like Mexico is a sovereign legally recognized nation state and decided to lob bombs into another sovereign legally recognized nation state of Israel.

    The proper Israeli response under international law, would be to declare and justify bombings and mass killings as rational self-defense.

    The world may disagree, but it would have to recognize the legitimacy of Israel’s argument, which is based on international law.

    Let’s take another example that I think fits better the world reaction to the Gaza crisis.

    Let’s say in 1980s South Africa, so-called sovereign homelands set up by the South African government under the apartheid regime started to lob bombs into Johannesburg. The South African government would respond, of course, with deadly force justifying their response and fending off criticism by suggesting that if Mexico lobbed bombs into the US, our respective responses would be similar. Which is true, but it ignores totally, the completely different nature of the attacks.

    The South African response would be widely condemned because they were attacking their own citizens similar to what the Chinese government is doing to the Uighurs. Israel is attacking occupied territory of their own making, and this is why there is worldwide condemnation.

    My point being Israeli security would be great in enhanced if Palestine WERE a legitimate sovereign state, ergo any attack by the sovereign state of Palestine can be met with force by the Israeli government, and they could do exactly what they’re doing today in Gaza somewhat legitimately.

    There may be protest that the Israeli response is drastic, and should be curtailed, but there couldn’t be an argument that Israel does not have the right to defend itself against another nation attacking it.

    I think my above comment is absolutely true because I’ve traveled extensively and that’s the reaction I hear to Israeli aggressiveness abroad. They see Gaza as one nation brutally attacking a minority that they’ve ostracized and marginalized, and have no intention of giving freedom via a two state solution.

    They don’t see it as Mr. Reynolds does as a Mexico lobbing missiles into the US analogy, they see it as the South African’s wailing on bantustans of their own creation unrecognized by international law.

    I think many in the Democratic Party are frustrated with the limp, flaccid criticism on the part of Harris/Biden and their lack of insistence to greatly expand humanitarian aid and mitigate Israeli atrocities.

    Our weak response in an ironic way boosted Trumps “strongman” character of not being afraid to offend people when it conflicts with our own country’s self interest.

    The take away: Israel won’t boss around America under Trump, like they would , if Harris is President

    4
  40. Lounsbury says:

    @The Q:
    This is an interesting comment.

    In a perhaps parallel observation in my own circles, very Muslim, the reaction to Trump is generally positive, as the view is that the US Left is at once ineffectual and that Trump at least brings clarity and not self deception. And that he was not inclined to deal with them as charity cases” in “oh the poor oppressed, let us in our very white noblesse oblige help you” which is oft resented, but in openly mercenary fashion and easy to understand.

  41. Scott F. says:

    @The Q:

    The take away: Israel won’t boss around America under Trump, like they would , if Harris is President.

    Israel won’t need to “boss around America.” Trump will give them whatever they want. Trump’s “strongman” schtick serves his own self interest, not the country’s. If Donald would give Netanyahu Delaware as a home abroad if he thought that would make him appear strong to the MAGAts, especially if it were to distract from his inability to control inflation with tariffs and mass deportation.

    6
  42. Lounsbury says:

    @Scott F.:

    We must protect the most vulnerable to the best of our ability and establish the blue jurisdictions in this country as sanctuaries of resistance. The rest need to feel the consequences of their votes good and hard

    insofar as the data so far show Trump making material and significant gains in vote share in even places like Bronx, your “blue jurisdictions” noblesse oblige à la mode de bourgeois gauche…. Well it has assumptions that data rather says dhoild nit be held sans réflexion.

    1
  43. Scott F. says:

    @Lounsbury:
    When I saw you active on this thread, I just knew you would reply to me with some ponderous, florid declaration that I’m doing it all wrong.

    Thank you for being so numbingly predictable. Some norms persist.

    10
  44. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Michael Reynolds: Asking me what my plan is and declaring that there is no solution (well, duh), doesn’t explain how Biden “may be the only reason the WB is not already annexed, and Gaza isn’t being marched into the desert.”

    But thanks for playing. And I’m sure the Palestinians are comforted by your concern.

    1
  45. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Rob1: If I recall correctly, several people I read, on this site and others, were proposing Biden as a one term office holder/caretaker government. But if you like your description better, fine by me.

  46. The Q says:

    Scott F, in 1980 a lot of people thought old man Reagan would blow up the planet.

    No one at the time could conceive six years later, he would ask Gorbachev if it would be possible to get rid of all nukes and 9 years later the wall would fall.

    Let’s act hysterical when Delaware becomes part of Russia.

  47. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Modulo Myself: I’m not sure that I would say that the situation is as much lack of concern for Palestinians as it is fear that bucking the Israel Lobby–both left and right–is political suicide. Sadly, both circumstances look identical. I decided, for a change, to give the benefit of the doubt.

    4
  48. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Lounsbury: I don’t follow polling enough, nor do I believe that I can fairly assess what you would consider ‘considerable’ gains in geographic areas to know whether Trump or Republicans at large constitute a ‘threat’ to Democratic party power in urban areas. What I do know is that the fact that an absolute majority of voters chose Trump may well be a comment on the future of the nation. I’m not optimistic.

    And yes, the notion of blue enclaves strikes me as hyperbolic. Then again I’m not Beth or Stormy Dragon or Reynolds’ daughter or nephew, so I may not be able to distinguish what is hyperbolic and what is not. I would suggest that you consider toning down the sanctimoniousness, but I know your only here for the yuks, so laugh away, clown.

    6
  49. Gustopher says:

    @Lounsbury: voter turnout in safe blue states was down, while swing states don’t show that decline. (And a check of a few safe red states also doesn’t show it)

    Given that this was also the cycle where there was a significant “uncommitted” movement in the primaries, centered around showing dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s response to Israel-Palestine, it’s quite possibly an enthusiasm issue with democratic voters who didn’t want to hold their nose and vote for the lesser of two evils when it wouldn’t matter anyway.

    I would generally shy away from any interpretation that requires voters to understand the electoral college and vote strategically, but we were seeing this in the primary, and the primary voters are the most politically aware.

    1
  50. Ken_L says:

    The next US ambassador to Israel probably signals the Trump Republican final solution to the Palestinian problem.

    HUCKABEE: There are certain words I refuse to use. There is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria. There’s no such thing as a settlement. They’re communities. They’re neighborhoods. They’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation. The only occupiers were the Babylonians, the Assyrians, the Turks, the Brits, the Romans. They were occupiers. The Jews are the occupants.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/11/14/nx-s1-5188521/palestinians-are-nervous-as-mike-huckabee-is-named-ambassador-to-israel

    1
  51. JohnSF says:

    @Rob1:
    Well, yes indeed.
    And do you think the more strategically thinking Israeli hard-right (and trust me, there are some) are not aware of these factors?

    The problem is, if the ultras decide they are empowered, and have a window of opportunity, NOW to attempt a quasi-genocidal mass expulsion event in Gaza and the West Bank.

    Biden might have refused to accept that.
    Would Trump refuse?

    The problem of the Palestinians remains as it has been since c. 1936: they are inclined to “resist injustice”, and to see any possible helper as a reason to refuse a solution.
    Despite, in every instance, this approach leaving them in a worse position, and their putative saviours calculating only their own advantage.

    Otoh, to establish a formal peace, Israel needs a resolution that the Palestinians may accept.

    That is the real issue: but he peril is if the Israeli ultras become able to implement their delusional alternative: clear the entirety of Palestine, and destroy any regional state that resists.

    2
  52. Lounsbury says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker: Retuns data and not polling. When districts in the Bronx of New York City, illustratively show double digit shifts towards Trump margins going from 55 to 35 ahead, you might well do to stop making excuses.

    Of course since I say write things drawing attention to data and statistics that are not in keeping with the proper uni-lounge inflected Bohemien Bourgeousie Left discourse perimeters, heritical facts, I am… a clown. Well that rather says more about you people than me. I will repeat of course, unless you are rather delusional, you should recognise any commenting on a blog is not ‘taking action’ it is self-entertainment -whether that entertainment is recreational outrage over sports, entertainment or politics. I am merely not self-deludingly delusional about this. The petty straw-men you all set-up, midly entertaining in a sour disappointment sort of way to read, and terribly predictable – rather like the reactions to all contary opinion expressed in any critical fashion (as one can see in the responses to theQ). You all do not want diversity, you want orthodoxy (in a proper colour palette but orthodoxy).

    Now you all want to rerun your cosPlay of “resistance” and say very important things on a blog about Trump and make dramatic 2nd hand statements about menaces etc for dramatic rhetoric on a blog. As I have lived in actual proper dictatorships where people really do get disappeared, I shall continue to be moderately amused, albeit sourly given you people have caused Trump to be inflicted on the world at large to no benefit to us, by your cosplaying and online drama llama-ism. and not from any approval nor pleasure in Trump actions, but

    @Scott F.: What is predictable would seem to be the shrill reaction to any critical comment and the mode of ad hominem response. Mere reference to the fact of double digit moves in Mr Trump’s favour in metropolitan New York City is … ponderous.

    Or perhaps merely uncomfortable for the fantasy rhetoric of refuges and resistance in a “blue America” when the data rather suggest that is actually rather more
    (Useful I think Burn-Murdoch of FT data points column, pre election, post election.

    And for your data: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/11/05/compare-2020-2024-presidential-results/?itid=sn_elections_3
    noting the shifts and magnitude.

    @Gustopher: I shall await the proper data, although convenient assertions of the ideologues that the reason of X is their pet subjects alinged with their opinions are fairly standard.

  53. Lounsbury says:

    @JohnSF: There needs to be a leadership that is able to take actions. If Botha had kept Mandela in prison, locked away, I rather think that 1990-1993 would not have happened as it did. Israïl of the Netanyahu fraction actively works against that. Abbas rather than Barghouti, etc.

  54. Lounsbury says:

    It is as a general matter interesting to read Musa Al Gharbi, an American sociologist, his data rooted observations similar to Burn-Murdoch, and interestingly critical – the ‘symbolic capitalists’ is perhaps a partisan balanced sociological term, as bobo Left is only for the Left although descriptive of the same type from at least the francophone perspective.

  55. wr says:

    @Lounsbury: “Of course since I say write things drawing attention to data and statistics that are not in keeping with the proper uni-lounge inflected Bohemien Bourgeousie Left discourse perimeters, heritical facts, I am… a clown”

    Ladies and gentlemen, I present you with the least self-aware human being on the internet.

    But just for the record, I don’t think that anyone minds Lounsbury’s “heresies.” People do come here to argue about politics, and that’s not much fun if everyone is in agreement.

    What people — as far as I feel and commenters have suggested — find objectionable are the pompous, almost unreadable (and sometimes only quasi-literate) prose, the sneering belief that he is the only one here who is able to rise above slogans and deluded belief systems and see the world exactly as it is, and his almost Trumpian set of pet catch-phrases, which he applies to every person in every situation. (Uni boho bourgeosie!!!!!)

    If he could tone down these mannerisms, I suspect he’d find a much warmer welcome to his posts. But then, I doubt that’s what he wants. Since he believes that everyone here is his moral and intellectual inferior, I find it hard to believe he’s looking for a real conversation.

    I know he’ll call me a clown or a child or some other deep thing for posting this, but at least when he strikes out like that he uses actual words.

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  56. charontwo says:

    @Lounsbury:

    Interesting data at your link, if it is reliable. (liking Freddie DeBoer raises doubts though).

    As for the interpretations – may need some thought.

    ETA: Interesting Harris did well with 65+ voters while losing ground with the yutes. Maybe the difference is getting info from legacy media like stodgy old newspapers vs. getting info from podcasts and Tik-Tok.

    Also the difference of highly educated vs. less educated explained by quality of information consumed.

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  57. steve says:

    In context, the entire world turned against the incumbents. This is not a bunch of people turning to Trump because they think he will accomplish anything, it is people mad about inflation, immigration and trans people. If you want to look at statistics I heartily agree as I love numbers. Note that the incumbent loss was less in the US than it was in the rest of the world. Why weren’t we in line with the rest of the world? Random chance, Harris was a better candidate than we thought or Trump is a bad candidate. Probably a mix.

    That aside, the sad part, sort of, is that we likely do have peace in both Israel and Ukraine within the next year or two at most. Israel has destroyed most of Gaza. There isn’t much left to bomb. It’s getting harder to find people to kill who might be Hamas. Netanyahu will declare victory and they will impose an even stronger embargo on Gaza. In Ukraine Trump will cut off, or at least slow down, arms and our other NATO partners wont be able to make up the difference. Ukraine will be forced to accept terms that mostly favor Russia. While I am at it, Trump is inheriting a strong economy. If it continues to do well he will just take credit for what was already happening. If it gets worse he will blame Biden.

    Steve

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  58. Assad K says:

    There’s certainly far more satisfaction and self righteousness about how the Arabs/Muslims are gonna get what’s coming to them than there is about, say the African Americans/Latinos/Women who switched their votes to Trump and were far more instrumental in his victory. There were small things the Dems could have done that could potentially have helped their standing, and they refused to do. As it happens, the AP polls indicate the Muslim vote overall was much the same for KH as it was for JB.