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Navy Has Been Escorting Ships Throught the Strait

But at nowhere close to the prewar level.

James Joyner
14

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Navy aircraft carrier with jets
Image under CC0 Public Domain

NYT (“U.S. Military Is Quietly Guiding Ships Through the Strait of Hormuz“):

American forces in recent weeks have helped coordinate the passage of dozens of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials, even as travel through the waterway remains risky amid stalled negotiations to end the war with Iran.

U.S. Central Command has guided around 70 commercial ships through the strait, traveling into and out of the Persian Gulf, in the last three weeks, one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The U.S. officials added that most of the vessels had turned off their transponders to avoid detection when going through the narrow waterway.

The officials declined to say what type of vessels were going through and what route they took, but one official indicated that at least one route was not close to the Iranian coastline. Ships passing near Iran without obtaining Iranian approval face the threat of an almost-certain attack by Iranian drones or missiles, U.S. officials said. Shipping analysts say the U.S.-guided crossings appear to follow routes that are closer to Oman.

So, this is surprising news. I’ve received multiple classified briefs on the operation and had no idea more than a handful of ships had gotten through.

Alas, some perspective is in order:

Before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, well over 100 commercial ships a day passed through the strait. So the U.S.-coordinated passages — an average of three a day over the three-week period — do not represent a big comeback for shipping. And because U.S.-guided crossings take place with transponders turned off, known as “dark” passages, shipping analysts say they cannot independently verify how many may have taken place.

But it does at least mildly address the most obvious impediment to re-opening the Strait without Iranian backing:

Still, a steady passage of ships under U.S. guidance would suggest that some shipowners are willing to take the risk to get in and out of the Persian Gulf, where many vessels have been stranded for weeks, losing money and leaving their crews in trying conditions.

Getting civilians to trust that their ships and crews will survive the passage is a big ask, indeed.

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14 responses to “Navy Has Been Escorting Ships Throught the Strait”

  1. drj Avatar
    drj

    Before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, well over 100 commercial ships a day passed through the strait. So the U.S.-coordinated passages — an average of three a day over the three-week period — do not represent a big comeback for shipping.

    Cutting off 97% of all traffic sounds like a pretty successful blockade to me.

    And while getting this limited number of ships in or out may – depending on circumstances – constitute a significant tactical success, strategically it’s close to meaningless.

    Good job, Donnie.

    2
  2. Jay L. Gischer Avatar
    Jay L. Gischer

    It seems to me that shipping analysts – who have time series geolocation data for ships – can indeed figure this out. With this advanced mathematical concept known as subtraction.

    Ok, maybe it’s a bit harder. You would have to compare tracks between days, and assume that after the passage ships will turn their transponders back on. On day X ship with tag Y is in the Persian Gulf, on day X+1 ship with tag Y is in the Gulf of Oman. I guess it teleported?

    Sooo, this makes me more than a little suspicious.

    1
  3. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    Getting civilians to trust that their ships and crews will survive the passage is a big ask, indeed.

    And Lloyds of London et al.

    1
  4. Michael Cain Avatar
    Michael Cain

    I assume escort duty falls to destroyers or maybe to cruisers, with lots of anti-air missiles and a Phalanx or two, but that the carriers are staying well away. I wonder how many such vessels it takes to provide coverage for a lumbering 2-million barrel tanker?

  5. Eusebio Avatar
    Eusebio

    @Michael Cain:
    The U.S. military has been coordinating with and helping to guide some commercial vessels through the strait, but not actually escorting them. From the NYT article,

    “Though U.S. forces are not escorting, we continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial ships seeking to freely and safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international corridor for regional and global economies,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesman, said in a statement on Saturday.

    There’s an excellent YouTube cast by Sal Mercogliano, What’s going on with Shipping, with several episodes per week. In yesterday’s episode, he said that U.S ships have not been escorting, but U.S. aircraft have been providing surveillance for commercial ships.

  6. Assad K Avatar
    Assad K

    Wonder if any escorting ships have actually had to take action, and what would that look like? Would an escort cruiser be able to get between a tanker and a drone to interdict? And what weapon would they be using to interdict a drone?

  7. Barry_D Avatar
    Barry_D

    @drj: “Cutting off 97% of all traffic sounds like a pretty successful blockade to me. ”

    Seconding. James, this ‘success’ is a massive flashing strobe light of failure.

    1
  8. dazedandconfused Avatar
    dazedandconfused

    @Eusebio: I suspect what they are trying to dance around there is the Iranian’s are probably quite sparing in the use of their radars, as every time a radar fires up it gives away its position. The US Navy may simply be letting the captains know when the Iranian radars are quiet, perhaps promising to try to help if an attack does come, so they are saying they are not “escorting” them.

    2
  9. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    So, this is surprising news. I’ve received multiple classified briefs on the operation and had no idea more than a handful of ships had gotten through.

    My instinct is to shout “Bad James, Bad!” and swat your nose with a rolled up paper. I don’t know the exact rules on handling classified information, but I would have expected remarking upon it and summarizing it on a blog would be against the spirit if not the letter, even if the information itself was outdated.

    1
  10. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    And because U.S.-guided crossings take place with transponders turned off, known as “dark” passages, shipping analysts say they cannot independently verify how many may have taken place.

    A transponder can be thought of as having three states:
    – on, inside the gulf
    – off
    – on, outside the gulf

    I would expect that one could make a pretty good independent estimate of ships exiting by comparing the first and third states over time. Unless they are changing transponders upon leaving.

    I wonder who these “shipping analysts” are, and why they aren’t cross referencing data and analyzing.

  11. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    @dazedandconfused:

    The US Navy may simply be letting the captains know when the Iranian radars are quiet, perhaps promising to try to help if an attack does come

    Sounds to me more like a few shipowners are making arrangements with Iran and the administration is claiming some credit for allowing them to pass.

    The statement @Eusebio: quoted is consistent with my interpretation,

    we continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial ships seeking to freely and safely transit the Strait of Hormuz

    3
  12. Eusebio Avatar
    Eusebio

    @gVOR10:
    My summary may have been lacking, so here’s a portion of the auto-generated transcript from Sal Mercogliano’s show:

    So there was an allegation that the US had start restarted escorting. They’re not. Although I will say this, there are reports that the US is providing overhead aerial uh support for vessels running through the southern Oman section of the per of the straight of Hormuz. We believe helicopters and aircraft are being used. Remember the 82nd Airborne Division of the United States Army’s 18th Airborne Corps is on the ground in the UAE. They have the AH64 Apache Longbows with their radars. They are providing that aerial guidance over these ships. So you don’t have Arleigh Burke class destroyers running through the straight, but you do have helicopters and jet aircraft providing some surveillance of ships heading through the straight. In particular, what they’re trying to do is provide protection against unmanned aerial and surface drones and of course crews and guided missiles and ballistic missiles because as you’ll see the Iranians have started using them against ships.

    He also showed a group of ships located on in the mountains of the UAE… but not really, because their locations were being spoofed to appear in that area. And he pointed to a couple of ships in the strait that were squawking, but appeared to be misrepresented, including…

    Not to be outdone, we have this vessel, the Jersey Devil 404. It’s identified as a US flag tanker. Now, I know every US tanker there is, and there is no Jersey Devil 404. Uh, it’s listed as being registered in the United States, 189 meters in length. Uh, this ship does not exist. Uh, no ownership, no nothing. I actually think that this is probably a drone of some type that has turned on an AIS just to cause misinformation.

    He didn’t make the connection to 404 meaning “not found”, nor did I see any comments to that effect.

  13. Scott Avatar
    Scott

    A couple of questions: I assume the escort is just one way. This is facilitating escape. Not trade.

    Two, how much is this costing the US? Ships, fuel, salaries, food, etc. What is the cost/benefit? And how is it that the US bears this cost?

    1
  14. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    Better than none; still nowhere enough.
    And how many ships are going INTO the Gulf?
    Because I doubt many shipping firms are going to be doing that.
    And I’ll say this again: at some point the GCC countries are going to be having serious problems about food supply, 70% of which has previously come in via the Straits.
    Replacing that by overland routes from the Read Sea is going to be logistically non-trivial.
    To put it mildly.

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