Negotiating With Crazy Bastards
The Madmen Theory doesn't work when both sides are using it.
Reuters (“Iran, US receive plan to end hostilities, immediate ceasefire, source says“):
“All elements need to be agreed today,” the source said, adding the initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalised electronically through Pakistan, the sole communication channel in the talks.
Axios first reported on Sunday that the United States, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources.
The source told Reuters Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in contact “all night long” with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Under the proposal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15–20 days to finalise a broader settlement. The deal, tentatively dubbed the “Islamabad Accord,” would include a regional framework for the strait, with final in-person talks in Islamabad.
There was no immediate response from U.S. and Iranian officials. Pakistan’s foreign office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi declined comment.
Iranian officials have previously told Reuters that Tehran was seeking a permanent ceasefire with guarantees they will not be attacked again by the U.S. and Israel. They have said Iran has received messages from mediators including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.
The final agreement is expected to include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, the source said.
Two Pakistani sources said Iran has yet to commit despite intensified civilian and military outreach.
“Iran has not responded yet,” one source said, adding proposals backed by Pakistan, China and the United States for a temporary ceasefire have drawn no commitment so far.
Given how slim the prospects for achieving broader U.S. goals in the conflict are, this would be an ideal outcome. It would provide an offramp from either sending in U.S. ground troops or doing massive damage to Iranian civilian infrastructure.
I am, alas, highly skeptical. It’s not clear that President Trump could be persuaded to take this deal. More importantly, I don’t know why Iranian leaders, who believe they are winning, would be willing to take assurances from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that they won’t renew hostilities.
Trump famously reneges on deals all the time, seeing compliance with terms he’s agreed to as foolish. He already dashed JCPOA, which was as good a nuclear deal with Iran as we’re likely to ever get, given the two sides’ leverage. At the same time, IRGC and other regime leaders clearly don’t care about the well-being of the Iranian people, so threats to bomb the country “back to the stone ages” are not particularly concerning. If anything, carrying out that pledge would cement America’s status as the Great Satan for generations.
As has been the case since the war started, I simply have no idea how it ends. I strongly suspect that’s the case within the Trump administration as well.
Fatso already bombed Iran twice while in the midst of negotiating.
I have no idea why Iran would trust him.
I know I don’t.
It would be just as nuts for the Iranians to treat Trump and Netanyahu as credible negotiators. It’s not their fault they are actually fighting the Great Satan: a treacherous and deceptive foe who does nothing but lie. Why would they even believe they’re about to be bombed back into the stone age? Why not wait and see if Trump plays the market and extend the deadline for another two weeks?
It’s not Madman Theory any more — it’s Agreement Incapable Theory.
The US has shown itself to intentionally not follow any treaty.. in reality, “ceasefire” with the US now means “everyone else ceases, the US fires.”
Even if the US walks away, Israel won’t.
Note that Iran was following the JCPOA but Trump tore it up because of woke.
How many more US troops have to die because Trump has too many emotions to take the L?
As always, Republican feelings need to be handled like a baby hummingbird even though they posture as macho.
There is zero path to a US win here, the only thing that needs to change is Trump accepting it. Ground invasion is going to get everyone killed – if not in the first wave then to attrition, especially of the logistics that will resemble Japan trying to resupply Guadalcanal.
Madman theory was always a myth anyway–something that people who favor belligerence just sort of assume must be true despite there being very little evidence that this is the case.
We’d be the Great Satan beyond the borders of Iran as well – and deservedly so.
Things are going as badly as I thought they would with Trump II. And that’s worrying because my job, the thing I’m good at is plotting. I mostly write spec fiction and not romance, so my groove is conflict. I will almost always be darker, more dire than reasonable people because my brain is constantly running scenarios that start from, ‘OK, what horrible shit can happen next?’ *
I’m not surprised by what’s happening, and that’s not good. Reality should not be a story written by Michael Grant or KA Applegate.
*Almost literally true. One of the reasons I am so much fun at parties is because while normal people are chatting I’m thinking gunfire, disease, panic, madness, and wondering if I shoved a martini glass in someone face would the bowl shatter but the stem remain intact to plunge deep into their eye?