Reuters (“Iran, US receive plan to end hostilities, immediate ceasefire, source says“):
“All elements need to be agreed today,” the source said, adding the initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalised electronically through Pakistan, the sole communication channel in the talks.
Axios first reported on Sunday that the United States, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources.
The source told Reuters Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in contact “all night long” with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Under the proposal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15–20 days to finalise a broader settlement. The deal, tentatively dubbed the “Islamabad Accord,” would include a regional framework for the strait, with final in-person talks in Islamabad.
There was no immediate response from U.S. and Iranian officials. Pakistan’s foreign office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi declined comment.
Iranian officials have previously told Reuters that Tehran was seeking a permanent ceasefire with guarantees they will not be attacked again by the U.S. and Israel. They have said Iran has received messages from mediators including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.
The final agreement is expected to include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, the source said.
Two Pakistani sources said Iran has yet to commit despite intensified civilian and military outreach.
“Iran has not responded yet,” one source said, adding proposals backed by Pakistan, China and the United States for a temporary ceasefire have drawn no commitment so far.
Given how slim the prospects for achieving broader U.S. goals in the conflict are, this would be an ideal outcome. It would provide an offramp from either sending in U.S. ground troops or doing massive damage to Iranian civilian infrastructure.
I am, alas, highly skeptical. It’s not clear that President Trump could be persuaded to take this deal. More importantly, I don’t know why Iranian leaders, who believe they are winning, would be willing to take assurances from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that they won’t renew hostilities.
Trump famously reneges on deals all the time, seeing compliance with terms he’s agreed to as foolish. He already dashed JCPOA, which was as good a nuclear deal with Iran as we’re likely to ever get, given the two sides’ leverage. At the same time, IRGC and other regime leaders clearly don’t care about the well-being of the Iranian people, so threats to bomb the country “back to the stone ages” are not particularly concerning. If anything, carrying out that pledge would cement America’s status as the Great Satan for generations.
As has been the case since the war started, I simply have no idea how it ends. I strongly suspect that’s the case within the Trump administration as well.
