POLITICO (“No Labels is running out of time — and candidates — to make its case“):
Donors to No Labels are starting to fear that the third-party group missed its window for launching a much-hyped presidential bid and are questioning whether to make future financial commitments to the organization.
Those fears have intensified after two high-profile No Labels candidate targets — former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat — passed on the chance to run for president, and as the party’s planned April presidential nominating convention approaches without a clear ticket in place.
“No Labels just missed one heck of an opportunity to potentially be viable, and now I don’t know that they can be viable,” said Jim Teague, the CEO of a Texas oil and gas company and a No Labels donor. “I don’t know who they can possibly get to run that would generate excitement that Joe Manchin would have generated,” he said, adding that it’s “pretty doubtful” he will donate to the organization in the future.
Regardless of how much enthusiasm a 77-year-old (at the time of the election) Joe Manchin would have inspired, there was simply no way No Labels could have been “viable” under our electoral rules. The reason Manchin and Hogan couldn’t be persuaded to run was because they realized not only that but that they would most likely serve as “spoiler” candidates who would have enhanced Donald Trump’s prospects for re-election.
No Labels officials say they are continuing to move forward with plans to launch a presidential run and are looking at “sometime after Super Tuesday to determine if we offer our line and who would be on it,” spokesperson Maryanne Martini said.
Considering that Super Tuesday is tomorrow and they’re not close to being ready to go, one would expect any announcement to come afterward, yes.
The sense that there is a lack of clarity around the group’s 2024 plans — including the absence of a slate of candidates — has caused anxiety among at least the half dozen donors who spoke with POLITICO.
The group last held a meeting with supporters on February 23. But, according to Martini, they focused on a successful lawsuit against hostile domain squatting on NoLabels.com — not the presidential race or updates on the candidate selection process.
No Labels is choosing candidates with “a very secret process,” said Bill Kunkler, who has been a donor and supporter of the group since 2018. He said possible names are being vetted by a small group of leaders and advisers.
“There’s going to be a proper vetting process so that we don’t end up with somebody where there are surprises,” said Kunkler, who was a key fundraiser for Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan when they ran for president and vice president in 2012. “People might call this a ‘smoke-filled room’ process, but my response is, they can either vote for us and our candidate in November or not. What’s smoke-filled about that?”
I don’t know that any of the non-major parties hold primaries. That hasn’t stopped the Libertarians or Greens from getting on ballots or garnering votes, so wouldn’t expect it to hurt No Labels if they picked a high profile candidate. But, again, the system is really stacked against them.
Manchin himself recently echoed a common criticism about the group from Democrats, and said it needed to take a “hard look” at a possible presidential unity ticket. Such a run would “basically work as a spoiler,” he said, particularly if it can only get on the ballot in a handful of battleground states.
Murry Bowden, a Texas businessperson who has been a longtime donor of No Labels, said he was “disappointed” that Manchin didn’t run and called the senator’s decision alongside Hogan’s “a setback” for the group.
“Those types of people would have been good for them to be on the ticket, and if they had gotten both of them, it would have been great,” he said. “They’re out, so I’m not sure who’s up next, if anyone.”
This comes as the general election is clearly shaping up to be a choice between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden — two candidates backers of No Labels have said they won’t support.
In an ideal world, it’s possible that I would prefer Hogan to Biden. And I’d certainly prefer either of them to Trump. But it’s been generations since a minor party candidate—Alabama Governor George Wallace in 1968—won* even a single Electoral Vote.
This cycle would seem especially ripe for an alternate. As has been noted endlessly, both Biden and Trump are underwater in the polls, with more Americans viewing them unfavorably than favorably. But there’s no galvanizing issue—like Civil Rights was during Wallace’s run—that would break the strong habit of most American voters to stick with their preferred party.
For the most part, this is true of potential candidates as well:
The group continues to keep the door open for Nikki Haley to be its candidate despite the former U.N. ambassador having pledged to remain in the GOP primary through Super Tuesday.
But Haley joining a No Labels ticket could be a long shot.
“All the talk about the independent, No Labels, all that — I haven’t talked to anybody about that. I know that they have sent smoke signals that they want me to talk to them, but I’m a Republican,” she said at a gathering with reporters in Washington, D.C., on Friday. “I’m trying to really talk about a way forward for Republicans.”
While there are quite possibly a significant number of people who would prefer Haley to Trump or Biden, the number who would vote for her knowing she can’t win is much smaller. And she would have a hell of a time ever running as a Republican again.
And regardless of how Haley personally feels about No Labels, joining the ticket could potentially subject her to “sore loser” laws that prohibit her from being on the ballot in certain states under another party line.
“I’d be pissed if I was a donor,” said the person who has direct knowledge of No Labels’ vetting process, noting that the ticket, if it comes together, will likely include lesser names at the top of it. “It’s like buying a ticket to see Taylor Swift, and you show up to see Madonna fall off the stage.”
It would be an interesting plot twist, though.
Most of the report focuses on No Labels’ ineptitude in organizing. But, really, that misses the point.
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*There have been a handful of “faithless Electors” since who’ve written in another candidate as a protest vote.
