Polls, Damn Polls, and Aggregators
There's something for everyone in the post-debate surveys.
Erstwhile OTB front pager Alex K has noted in two comments this morning that, despite all the hand-wringing about Biden’s debate performance and calls for him to step aside, the polls are at best mixed and possibly shifting in his direction.
Giving up the advantages of incumbency and a great economy in a coin flip election in favor of having a new candidate start up with about three months before people start voting doesn’t seem particularly savvy to me.
If after the past two weeks of every op-ed columnist who was sure DeSantis would beat Trump telling Biden to drop out while the NYT and cable media floods the zone with “Biden is unfit” coverage doesn’t actually move the polls…. doesn’t that say something about Biden’s ability to campaign? This is probably the worst his news cycle is going to get and he’s basically unscathed as far as the most recent polls are concerned.
On the first point—the wisdom of changing horses at this point—I’m largely in agreement. At best, it’s a Hail Mary. While I lean in the direction of Biden stepping aside (while agreeing with my co-blogger Steven Taylor that he’s unlikely to do so), it’s not because I’m sure Kamala Harris or some other Democrat is a surefire bet to beat Trump but because I genuinely have concern about Biden’s continued fitness for office.
On the second point—what to make of the polls—I differ from Alex, at least at the margins. First, I tend to rely on aggregators rather than individual polls and they tell a slightly different story. Second, because Biden and Trump are so well known, I just don’t think there’s much room for movement.
As to the individual polls, Alex is right: they tell mixed stories.
Pew: “AMID DOUBTS ABOUT BIDEN’S MENTAL SHARPNESS, TRUMP LEADS PRESIDENTIAL RACE“
ABC News: “Biden and Trump tied despite debate, as 67% call for president to drop out” (Same poll)
Two weeks after the June 27 presidential debate, 44% of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for or lean toward Donald Trump. A smaller share (40%) say they support or lean toward Joe Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – a third-party candidate – peels off 15% of voters, while another 2% say they do not support or lean toward any of the three candidates listed on the survey.
When voters are asked to choose just between the two major party candidates, Trump has a 3 percentage point edge: 47% support or lean toward Biden, while 50% support or lean toward Trump. This is mostly on par with voter preferences in April. That survey did not include Kennedy.
This, however, is a bit of cause for concern:
These are the shares of voters who support their candidate strongly:
- 43% of Biden supporters
- 63% of Trump supporters
- 15% of Kennedy supporters
A slightly larger share of Trump supporters (81%) than Biden supporters (77%) say they are certain to support him and will not change their minds.
NPR: “After Biden’s debate performance, the presidential race is unchanged“
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Alas, again, this isn’t good news:
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But it’s tempered with good news:
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).
But, again, the trendlines are what they are.
538:
Of course, we don’t elect Presidents via a national popular vote but rather through the unique vehicle of the Electoral College. Here’s what RCP shows with regard to the swingiest states:
Silver is a bit rosier:
I don’t know how many polls are in these aggregates but more than half are moving in Biden’s direction, if ever so slightly. Alas, he trails Trump in all of them. And he pretty much has to win ALL of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to reach the magical 270 Electors.
But back to Alex’s original point: even for a contest that’s been essentially set in stone for more than a year, this is indeed less movement than one would expect. Even with candidates this well known, there are still undecideds and “double-haters.” Either they’re just not paying attention yet (a distinct possibility) or Biden’s age and propensity for going off script are as baked in as Trump’s authoritarian shittiness.
Then again, here’s what the Pew/ABC poll shows:
Today, just 24% of voters say “mentally sharp” describes Biden very or fairly well, while 58% say this trait applies to Trump. In October of 2020, voters were slightly more likely to apply this description to Trump than Biden (50% vs. 46%). But the gap is now 34 percentage points. The share of voters viewing Biden as mentally sharp has declined steadily since early 2021.
More voters (58%) view Trump as mentally sharp today than did so in October 2020 (50%).The drop in the share of voters viewing Biden as mentally sharp has come mostly among his own supporters. While 82% viewed Biden as mentally sharp in October 2020, 53% do now. Among Trump supporters, just 2% describe Biden as mentally sharp, with 89% saying this does not describe him well at all.
But, of course, the operative comparison isn’t with 2020 but with three weeks ago. We don’t have those numbers.
Regardless, if these are the kind of numbers Biden is seeing, they’re not enough to push him out of the office he’s spent his whole adult life chasing. He’s losing the race but not by much. And he’s certainly been counted out before.
Yup.
I’m seeing two things: Some claim Biden can’t win, others claim he can’t serve another four years.
As to the second, he doesn’t have to. It’s like the joke of the two hikers being chased by a wolf. One says they won’t be able to outrun the wolf. The other replies “But I can outrun you.” If he wins in November, I don’t care whether Biden can continue to serve for another four years or just another four seconds.
My concern is this:
There are types of cognitive decline or dementia (not the same thing) that manifest mostly later in the day. The persons afflicted are reasonably sharp and competent through the day, but begin to lose the thread by late afternoon or early evening.
If this is Biden’s problem, then he can’t serve another term. But see above.
@Kathy: He did pretty well last night!
I just want to add to this that one thing interesting about the polls is that pretty consistently you’re seeing since 2018 that Democrats have significantly captured the groups of voters that are most likely to actually turn out to the polls. In an NPR story about their poll today (which shows Biden ahead), they note:
Reportedly, the Trump campaign isn’t doing nearly the amount of GOTV effort that the Biden campaign is. On the margins, that can make a big difference!
Consider the 2022 elections, which had some high-profile Senate races in battleground states.
In PA, poll averages showed Oz winning 47.4 to 46.9. The actual result was 51.2-46.3 Fetterman.
In NV, poll averages had Laxalt 47.3 – Cortez Mastro 45.9. Actual result: Cortez Mastro wins 48.8 – 48.0
In AZ, poll averages showed Mark Kelly winning, but only by 1.5. (48.6-47.1) Kelly actually won by nearly 5 points (51.4 – 46.5).
Georgia poll averages had Walker beating Warnock by 1.4 (48.8-47.4) but the Nov result was Warnock winning 49.4-48.5 and the runoff margin was bigger.
Which is all to say – the ability to get voters to turn out is really important. It doesn’t matter if you’re really popular among groups that don’t show up to the polls!
And for this, Biden not only has a stronger ground game – he has a strong economy, and it’s usually a bad economy that spurs low propensity voters out to get rid of an incumbent.
Current real time 538 forecast, UPDATED JUL. 12, 2024, AT 2:10 PM:
Chance of winning:
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Electoral votes:
Biden 270
Trump 268
As Joyner highlighted above–
Greg Sargent: Shocker Poll Suggests Trump’s Lying May Be Huge Weakness for Him
Maybe instead of joining the media’s latest bash-the-Dem witch hunt, weak Judas Caucus liberals should spend less time knifing their own standard bearer and more time attacking extremist, authoritarian lie-machine Trump.
@DK:
Is George Clooney your Big Evil, my little purity pony? Or is it Ari Emmanuel? (Emmanuel would be flattered.) Let’s burn them both at the stake, see which one yields and gets Biden another ten million dollars.
Maybe the Big Evil is Nancy Pelosi, who is pretty clearly waxing the floor under Biden’s feet. But hey, what would Nancy know about getting Democrats elected?
Seems like only yesterday you were denouncing Joe Biden as the handmaiden of genocide. Joe just released more 500 pound bombs to drop exclusively on children. IIRC, it was me arguing that Biden was handling it as well as anyone could. Also me suggesting that hysterics like you and the entitled White college children, were doing Joe no favors. But I guess loyalty is calling someone a war criminal and evil is calling someone senile.
What exactly have you done in the real world to help Democrats? Anything, or is it all on-line name-calling. Here’s my Open Secrets page when I list myself as ‘writer,’ and this is my page when I list as ‘author.’ (They’re actually $23,000 behind on this cycle, most of that to State Government Citizen’s Campaign, a grassroots funding PAC that, oh look, I helped found.)
What risk do you take? I’m here under my own name, and I’m a semi-public person. You’re two letters and a Savonarola complex. Show us what you’ve done, beside yelling. Show us what you’ve donated. Show us what org you founded. Right now, you’re just a mouth.
@Michael Reynolds:
Lolol. I did no such thing, you sick, twisted liar. I never once called Biden a war criminal, accused him of genocide, or said he was evil. You are a raging pathological liar. Maybe it’s you in debilitating cognitive decline; try worrying about yourself instead kf Joe Biden. And your obsession with a young black guy is bordering on psychosis. Get help.
And what I’ll going to continue to be — what will you do about it but tantrum and cry? I’m not going to show you jack. I don’t need your approval, you narcissistic, egomaniacal crank. You’re lashing out because you’re angry it and about being exposed as a fraud and a liar with your unhinged F*** Joe Biden and Weekend at Bernie’s MAGA propaganda. You’re really mad at yourself. And taking it out on me makes you look like an immature lunatic.
You said in 10 years you’ll be like Joe Biden, that is wrong. Neither now nor then will you be 1% of the man Joe Biden is — morally, cognitively, or any way else.
Hell hath no fury like an arrogant man proven wrong. Weekend At Bernie’s pfft lolol
@DK:
Because you got nothing to show. You’re just a mouth.
@Michael J Reynolds:
Waaaaa, waaaaa, waaaaa
Cry cry cry
Imagine thinking an internet stranger can make demands of me lol. My actions will never be dictated by childish taunts from some random extremely-online bully.
No, not sending you my dick pics to help you through the young black penis envy meltdown you’re having. Measure your shriveled-up peen against that of someone who respects or admires you. I do not.
OTB is not that serious and not real life. Maybe you should get one snd and enjoy your weekend?
As I said in response to a previous post, a 2 point swing to the out of office party is normal following a first debate with an incumbent president. The question here is whether that swing was caused by Democrats being disappointed by their candidates performance and not responding to pollsters or is it a real change in the race? My guess is that it’s probably the first, because with negative partisanship ruling the day I just don’t see a lot of room for movement from either candidate, but that’s just a guess. I may be wrong.
If Biden’s chances have really taken a genuine hit, the debate is probably less to blame than the Democratic freak out over the two weeks following it. Unfortunately, the Democrats are still running around like panic monkeys and show no signs of stopping, so if that’s the case then the damage will continue.
Let me be a little bit of a contrarian- I think Biden can win and will win if he can get his PA campaign together. I also think he probably can do the job a couple more years. The debate was a debacle but the expectations were set in. As long as he continues to campaign as he has in the very recent past he probably can right the ship and I will stipulate that it is just sheer speculation whether a replacement would do better. However, he should step down purely for health reasons. He either has some type of malady (my guess) or he is old for his age. I see nonagenarians who look better than he does. He should look after himself and the presidency is not a job that allows that. Wasn’t de Gaulle who said the cemetery is full of indispensable people.