Erstwhile OTB front pager Alex K has noted in two comments this morning that, despite all the hand-wringing about Biden’s debate performance and calls for him to step aside, the polls are at best mixed and possibly shifting in his direction.
Giving up the advantages of incumbency and a great economy in a coin flip election in favor of having a new candidate start up with about three months before people start voting doesn’t seem particularly savvy to me.
If after the past two weeks of every op-ed columnist who was sure DeSantis would beat Trump telling Biden to drop out while the NYT and cable media floods the zone with “Biden is unfit” coverage doesn’t actually move the polls…. doesn’t that say something about Biden’s ability to campaign? This is probably the worst his news cycle is going to get and he’s basically unscathed as far as the most recent polls are concerned.
On the first point—the wisdom of changing horses at this point—I’m largely in agreement. At best, it’s a Hail Mary. While I lean in the direction of Biden stepping aside (while agreeing with my co-blogger Steven Taylor that he’s unlikely to do so), it’s not because I’m sure Kamala Harris or some other Democrat is a surefire bet to beat Trump but because I genuinely have concern about Biden’s continued fitness for office.
On the second point—what to make of the polls—I differ from Alex, at least at the margins. First, I tend to rely on aggregators rather than individual polls and they tell a slightly different story. Second, because Biden and Trump are so well known, I just don’t think there’s much room for movement.
As to the individual polls, Alex is right: they tell mixed stories.
Pew: “AMID DOUBTS ABOUT BIDEN’S MENTAL SHARPNESS, TRUMP LEADS PRESIDENTIAL RACE“
ABC News: “Biden and Trump tied despite debate, as 67% call for president to drop out” (Same poll)
Two weeks after the June 27 presidential debate, 44% of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for or lean toward Donald Trump. A smaller share (40%) say they support or lean toward Joe Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – a third-party candidate – peels off 15% of voters, while another 2% say they do not support or lean toward any of the three candidates listed on the survey.
When voters are asked to choose just between the two major party candidates, Trump has a 3 percentage point edge: 47% support or lean toward Biden, while 50% support or lean toward Trump. This is mostly on par with voter preferences in April. That survey did not include Kennedy.
This, however, is a bit of cause for concern:
These are the shares of voters who support their candidate strongly:
- 43% of Biden supporters
- 63% of Trump supporters
- 15% of Kennedy supporters
A slightly larger share of Trump supporters (81%) than Biden supporters (77%) say they are certain to support him and will not change their minds.
NPR: “After Biden’s debate performance, the presidential race is unchanged“
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Alas, again, this isn’t good news:
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But it’s tempered with good news:
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).
But, again, the trendlines are what they are.
538:
Of course, we don’t elect Presidents via a national popular vote but rather through the unique vehicle of the Electoral College. Here’s what RCP shows with regard to the swingiest states:
Silver is a bit rosier:
I don’t know how many polls are in these aggregates but more than half are moving in Biden’s direction, if ever so slightly. Alas, he trails Trump in all of them. And he pretty much has to win ALL of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to reach the magical 270 Electors.
But back to Alex’s original point: even for a contest that’s been essentially set in stone for more than a year, this is indeed less movement than one would expect. Even with candidates this well known, there are still undecideds and “double-haters.” Either they’re just not paying attention yet (a distinct possibility) or Biden’s age and propensity for going off script are as baked in as Trump’s authoritarian shittiness.
Then again, here’s what the Pew/ABC poll shows:
Today, just 24% of voters say “mentally sharp” describes Biden very or fairly well, while 58% say this trait applies to Trump. In October of 2020, voters were slightly more likely to apply this description to Trump than Biden (50% vs. 46%). But the gap is now 34 percentage points. The share of voters viewing Biden as mentally sharp has declined steadily since early 2021.
More voters (58%) view Trump as mentally sharp today than did so in October 2020 (50%).The drop in the share of voters viewing Biden as mentally sharp has come mostly among his own supporters. While 82% viewed Biden as mentally sharp in October 2020, 53% do now. Among Trump supporters, just 2% describe Biden as mentally sharp, with 89% saying this does not describe him well at all.
But, of course, the operative comparison isn’t with 2020 but with three weeks ago. We don’t have those numbers.
Regardless, if these are the kind of numbers Biden is seeing, they’re not enough to push him out of the office he’s spent his whole adult life chasing. He’s losing the race but not by much. And he’s certainly been counted out before.
