My OTB colleague Dave Schuler made his 2008 predictions on New Year’s Eve but I’ve decided to wait until the first official work day of the year to get a better sense of the lay of the land.
U.S. Politics:
- The Republicans will eventually nominate someone, pundit chatter about a divided base notwithstanding.
- “Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary. If he runs as a Libertarian or other third party, he won’t get a single electoral vote.”*
- The eventual president will be either a Democrat or Republican, regardless of whether Ron Paul, Mike Bloomberg, or anyone else runs on a third party ticket.
- The winner will be a Protestant white guy, defying predictions of the First Woman, First Black, or First Mormon President.
- The Guinness Book folks will have some consolation, if my prediction of John McCain winning the whole thing pans out, in having the oldest man ever elected to a first term.
- The Democrats will retain both the Houses of Congress, picking up two seats in the Senate while losing fourteen of the House seats they picked up in 2006.
- “Nothing of any substance will be accomplished by the Congress on any of the following issues: immigration, healthcare, Social Security, education, product safety of imports.”*
- “President Bush will not be impeached by the House of Representatives”* — nor will any past or former administration official be tried for war crimes.
World Politics:
- The United States will have 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at year’s end. The trend toward lower body counts will continue but civil society will remain an elusive goal.
- Pervez Musharraf will still be president of Pakistan at year’s end. One way or the other.
- Vladimir Putin will still be running Russia at year’s end — but with a new title.
- Neither the U.S. nor Israel will either bomb or invade Iran.
- The Lisbon Treaty will fail, forcing a dramatic rethinking of the European Union’s agenda.
Media:
- Katie Couric will not finish the year as anchor of the CBS Evening News.
- NBC will pull the plug on one of its cable news ventures.
- The Wall Street Journal will be a more successful paper with Rupert Murdock running it.
- Sirius and XM will be allowed to merge.
- The television writers strike will end but the major networks will never recover their market share, making it a lose-lose proposition.
Sports:
- The New England Patriots will beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl, becoming the first 19-0 team in NFL history.
- The United States will finally win the gold medal in basketball again, along with the overall gold medal count, in this summer’s Olympic Games. Few will much care.
- The Boston Celtics will win the NBA championship.
- The Atlanta Braves will win the World Series with a starting rotation of pitchers in the twilight of their careers.
- Tiger Woods will win two Majors, passing Bobby Jones and coming within two of Jack Nicklaus.
*Borrowed from Dave’s list.
