Whoever wrote The Telegraph headline “Estonia’s spy chief: ‘Russia is in a very bad place – revolution could come overnight’” did their job of piquing my interest. Alas, the report itself, while interesting, does not live up to the promise.
It was, perhaps, the highest praise ever offered by one intelligence agency to another – and it was certainly the most British.
As chief of MI6 in 2022, Sir Richard Moore publicly declared that “pound for pound”, the “brilliant” Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) “probably knock us into a cocked hat”.
Kaupo Rosin, the director general of that service, is delighted by the compliment, though he asks with polite bewilderment what this expression about cocked hats could possibly mean.
[…]
Rosin and his spies must do everything humanly possible to understand Russian intentions and capabilities for the simple reason that the very survival of their homeland may depend upon it. Their special insight and expertise on Russia is what earned them the public praise of MI6.
Perhaps for that reason, Rosin believes that we should abandon euphemisms like “hybrid warfare”, and call Putin’s escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion across Europe by its proper name of “state-sponsored terrorism”.
Since Rosin’s service is superbly informed on developments inside Russia, I begin by asking how Putin and his circle view their blood-soaked predicament in Ukraine. “What he expresses or emanates is that victory for Russia will come at one point – and that we just have to continue and keep going. But I’m not sure if people around Putin are as convinced as he might be,” replies Rosin.
“There are certainly voices which express that he should keep going, but I think the voices which, let’s say, urge [him] to maybe reconsider the situation are becoming stronger and stronger.”
Rosin adds: “What he has, at this point, are only bad options. And each decision he makes has different risks for him. So the decision to continue has the risk that with the heavy losses and the economic situation, the internal problems and tensions in Russia mount.
“That might have, at some point in the future, an impact on his political future, if people around him come to the conclusion… that it is better to continue without him.
“But if he stops, that has the risk for him that he will be shown as a weak person. So there is really something for him to think about at this point. But I think, objectively, Russia is in a very bad place at the moment, and many people understand this in Russia, especially people in the economic field, and probably some of the oligarchs already. So I’m sure they have serious discussions.”
[…]
Rosin provides a list of Russia’s Putin-inflicted ailments. “The losses on the battlefield exceed the recruitment numbers,” he says. “The economy has taken a serious hit. One of the reasons is the Ukrainian long-range strikes against oil infrastructure, which is the main income for the Russian budget. There are huge financial problems already. The budget deficit has already exceeded the planned deficit for this year, and it will be, we assess, maybe around 10 trillion rubles [£86bn], which is half of the defence budget.”
[…]
Rosin continues: “We see that overall unhappiness levels with this war are increasing in all echelons of society, starting from normal people and throughout, up to the oligarchs. More and more people do not want this war. The question is: what impact does this have on his [Putin’s] decision-making?”
Rosin is candid that he cannot answer that question, prompting me to wonder out loud whether the level of discontent might reach a level where Putin’s grip on power could be threatened.
“I do not see a street revolution happening at this point,” says Rosin. “More important is what people who have access to money, weapons and information – what do they think? In these circles, there is no more talk about total victory. People are discussing different scenarios, and mainly how to end this [war] in a proper way.”
Rosin adds: “But I would say, if something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised. It will be an overnight thing, if it ever happens.”
We were speculating as to how Putin’s rule could end from the early days of the war, when it became clear that there would be no easy victory. Russian casualties have surpassed 1.4 million, with some 450,000 killed in action. Even for Russians, that’s a lot of people. Especially in a war of choice that’s going poorly.
