Despite the hopes of some that they would be in play this year, it would appear that Republican SuperPACs, and the Romney campaign, are already beginning to write off Michigan and Pennsylvania:
Mitt Romney’s conservative allies are bypassing Michigan with their advertising while stepping up efforts in other battleground states — suggesting campaign strategists don’t believe his road to the White House leads through his native state.
The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.
There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to the Associated Press.
One reason the Romney forces may have pulled money out of Michigan is President Barack Obama’s campaign and a political action committee supporting his re-election aren’t spending here either, said Rich Robinson, director of Michigan Campaign Finance Network.
“You don’t spend money if you know you’re going to win or you know you’re going to lose, and Obama hasn’t spent five cents” in Michigan, Robinson said.
Looking at history, this isn’t entirely surprising. Neither Michigan nor Pennsylvania have gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1988, and there are plenty of other battleground states where money can and should be better spent. Additionally, the polls don’t seem to indicate a close race coming in either state. The RCP Average for Pennsylvania is +7.7 in the President’s favor. The numbers are a bit closer in Michigan are a bit closer, a +2.4 advantage for Obama in the RCP Average, but that’s mostly because several questionable instate pollsters have shown a closer race than the national pollsters. If neither Romney nor his supporters are spending money in the state, it would seem to indicate that they don’t believe the instate pollsters.
As I said, not spending money in either state is a smart decision, but it does indicate just how narrow Mitt Romney’s path to victory, such as it may be, actually is at this point.
