Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. charontwo says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   Great piece from Noah Smith explaining why we have massive tariffs on coffee and bananas and why Trump and Navarro believe this makes economic sense.

   “Noahpinion”

   I will post the punchline first, explainer after:

   So there’s still a lot of work to be done in terms of expunging this common error from the world of econ reporting, but I do see some hopeful signs of progress.

   The next question you may ask is: Why does any of this matter? As an angry graduate student thirteen years ago, I would have written this post out of pure pedantry, but I’m long past that. The only reason I care so strongly about this is that this common error seems to be influencing national policy in a fairly disastrous way.

   The St. Louis Fed’s explainer on imports and GDP warned us about this:

   [T]he [GDP] equation, as [typically] stated, can lead to a misunderstanding of how imports affect GDP. More specifically, the expenditure equation seems to imply that imports reduce economic output. For example, in nearly every quarter since 1976, net exports (X − M) have been negative…which seems to imply that trade reduces domestic output and growth…This can influence people’s perspective on trade.

   Well, yes. Trump’s top economic advisor, Peter Navarro, claims that imports subtract from U.S. GDP. Trump doesn’t speak in such clear terms, but routinely says that countries that run trade surpluses with the U.S. are “ripping us off.”

   It’s based on this very idea that Trump and Navarro have saddled our country with boneheaded tariffs that are going to hurt the American economy. And when MAGA types want to defend the tariffs, they often trot out the mistaken idea that trade deficits make our country poorer.

   If econ reporters hadn’t continuously said that “imports subtract from GDP” for decades on end, this mistaken idea might not have embedded itself so strongly in the MAGA people’s heads. The tariffs are based, at least in part, on a simple accounting mistake. The least econ writers could do is to not reinforce this mistake every time a new quarterly GDP release comes out.

   Per explanation:

   The short version of the story is this: GDP is a measurement of everything produced within a country’s borders. Imports are produced outside a country’s borders. So imports don’t add to or subtract from GDP. Imports simply aren’t counted in GDP at all.

   Let’s think about some examples. Suppose an American buys a TV made in China for $1000. Remember that GDP can be calculated as the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports:

   GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Purchases + Net Exports

   When the American buys the $1000 TV from China, U.S. consumption goes up by $1000. And U.S. net exports go down by $1000, since “net exports” means exports minus imports. The increase in consumption exactly cancels out the fall in net exports. So the total contribution of the imported TV to U.S. GDP is zero.

   Let’s take another example, which is more like what actually happened in Q1. Suppose an American company, Best Buy, decides to buy a Chinese TV and put it in a warehouse, because it knows that tariffs are coming soon. That purchase counts as inventory investment. So investment goes up by $1000. And just like in the previous example, net exports go down by $1000. The two cancel out, and the total contribution of the imported TV to U.S. GDP is zero.

   n other words, if a bunch of U.S. companies were trying to stock up on imports ahead of the tariffs, that should register as both an increase in (inventory) investment, and as a decrease in net exports. The two should exactly cancel out. Those imports should not subtract from GDP, since they add to investment even as they also subtract from net exports.

   Here’s a simple analogy: Does putting on shoes make you lose weight? No, it doesn’t. And yet when you weigh yourself with your shoes on at the doctor’s office, and you want to know your actual body weight, you subtract the weight of your shoes afterwards. Imports are to GDP what shoes are to your weight on the scale at the doctor’s office — just something superfluous that gets added in for the sake of measurement convenience, and which has to be netted out again later to get the true number.

   Putting on heavier shoes doesn’t make you a thinner person, and importing more goods from abroad doesn’t make your country’s economy any smaller.

   So it’s just not true that America’s economy shrank in Q1 because “imports are subtracted from GDP”. That’s false. Every time an economics reporter writes those words, it’s an error that should be corrected.

   This was linked in the piece:

   “Link“

   6
2. charontwo says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   @charontwo:

   A link from the piece:

   “Link”

   (I did this as an edit to the previous post, but the edit does not show up)

   ETA

   “JPEG”

   No chance of ever explaining this to Trump and be understood, at his current state of cognitive impairment beyond the innate stupidity.
3. gVOR10 says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   @charontwo: Thank you. I hadn’t thought that through, or dug into it, but that business of GDP being reduced by imports had bothered me. I even saw a neatly done chart with bars for the change in C+I+G+N added up and a large negative N pulling the total negative. A very clear graphic propounding this error.

   I’ve long suspected the J schools have an entrance exam with a math section. If you do good on the math section, you’re barred from J school. Especially future business and econ writers.

   2
4. Bill Jempty says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   The website is screwy looking right now.

   1
5. mattbernius says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   FYI having to update the site manually–comment counts and our visuals things may be weird (weirder) for the next hour. No need to panic or test post.

   3
6. Michael Reynolds says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   You can’t say Trump hasn’t done anything good. He’s managed to reverse the fortunes of liberal (ideology not party label) parties in both Canada and Australia. Now, we just need Trump to enthusiastically embrace Erdogan and Orbàn and Melloni and a few others.

   ETTD: Everything Trump Touches Dies. Isn’t that right, Elon?

   7
7. Rob1 says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   This is typical —- people, family members finding out the truth about continuous care facilities, that all of us who have worked in similar institutions already knew: as a society we “warehouse” disabled people (or abandon them to the streets) because it takes a lot of labor cost, and our society only places value on “productive members.” This is in complete contradiction to the self-serving claim of being a “Christian nation.” Trump’s social services and safety net cuts will only make this worse. His cuts to education and science will have a “pile on” effect. In pursuit of greater financial concessions to the wealthy and to corporations, Trump is dragging our society backwards in time. Rank and file MAGA supporters have no idea what they’ve unleashed upon themselves and their descendants.

   In the US, not even $11,000 a month can buy you dignity at the end of your life

   “Instead, Cindy had to visit for hours every day to help Dad, trying to prod administrators and overworked staff to give him more of the promised care for which we were paying dearly, but without making so much fuss that they’d evict him. She was stressed, and we were all heartbroken that aside from family visits, Dad was spending his last days lonely, helpless and bored, at the mercy of a company that seemed to be doing more warehousing than care.”

   https://www.theguardian.com/society/ng-interactive/2025/may/01/nursing-home-assisted-living-costs-care

   Do not ask for whom the bell tolls.

   10
8. Mister Bluster says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   comment check
9. charontwo says:
   Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

   Here is an oldie I came across:

   “Noahpinion”

   America is ruled by gangsters now

   Three takeaways from Trump’s disastrous meeting with Zelensky.

   …

   Basically, I think there are three things we should take away from this disastrous event:

   It’s now clear that the U.S. has chosen a set of leaders who are deeply immoral, and who cannot be expected to obey any norms of common decency.

   U.S. foreign policy has changed dramatically from what it was from 1945 to 2024; the U.S. is now effectively a gangster state. It’s not clear whether this can ever durably revert back to the way it was.

   Trump’s meeting with Zelensky also emphasizes how clumsy his administration is, and how they’ve already started making mistakes.

   America is now being led by its least moral individuals
   I’m going to talk about the geopolitical and domestic political implications of Trump’s Zelensky meeting in a bit, but first I want to place Trump and Vance’s contempt for Ukraine in the context of something else that’s been bothering me more and more recently — a general collapse of America’s public morality.

   The world is not made up of heroes and villains, like in Star Wars or a Marvel movie. Instead, like the Game of Thrones universe or a dark edgy comic book, the world is made up of antiheroes and villains. The kindest person you ever meet will have some moments of cruelty in their life; even the most upright and honest bend the rules once in a while; even people fighting for noble causes will have times when they’re selfish, arrogant, and greedy.

   And yet even so, there are enormous moral differences between individual human beings. There are people for whom greed, selfishness, and cruelty are not occasional lapses, but a way of life. There are true villains in this world. Everyone knows this on some level, and we’ve organized large parts of our societies around trying to police the true villains and keep them from attaining power. But society is always at a disadvantage, because villains work around the clock; people who crave power and dominance spend all of their waking hours trying to get it, while normal, flawed people can only spend part of their time policing them.

   If normal people were heroes, it would be easier to keep villains out of power. But normal people are antiheroes — they will kowtow to power when sufficiently threatened, they will take a bribe if it’s sufficiently large. Every man has his price, and the villains have deep pockets.

   And the villains have a lot of practice using normal people’s flaws to divide them. When society is politically divided, power-hungry people exploit those divisions to rise to the top — we tell ourselves “He may be a bad guy, but he’s a bad guy on my side.” At least Hitler will fight the communists; at least Stalin will keep the capitalists at bay.

   7
10. Rob1 says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Mister Bluster:

    Comments format has gone awry. Currently everything looks like it’s lost html.

    0
11. Matt Bernius says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    Ok, backend updates are done. Hopefully everything should look more normal.

    2
12. charontwo says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    A oldie from Sesame Street, perhaps why DJT hates PBS so much:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EA_40Hj05I

    2
13. Mister Bluster says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Rob1:..Comments format…

    I could not see Matt Bernius’ 9:29 Road Work Ahead post or I would not have made a comment check at 10:32.
    Currently, 11:43am cdt, the OTB site looks up to speed!
14. Mister Bluster says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @charontwo:..Trashy Donald Grump!

    Bravo!
15. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @charontwo:

    That would do it.

    1
16. Mister Bluster says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Mister Bluster:..up to speed!

    Almost.
    Cover page shows 10 comments on today’s Forum.
    Thread header shows 15 before I post this comment.
17. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    On Truth Social, Trump has posted a picture of himself as the pope:

    http://www.truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114441543826801216

    1
18. Sleeping Dog says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Rob1:

    For a while I worked for a software company that specialized in long term care management systems. If you need to find a place for a family member, look first at not-for-profit, religiously affiliated homes are usually among the best. Avoid the large chains, most are either public companies or owned by private equity and all, in my experience, skimp on care to increase profits.

    Among homes in the private sector, small chains, 4-6 homes or standalone homes can be good if the family owning the facility(s) are involved in the day to day operation. Don’t worry about how pretty the facility is, delve into the staffing of the nursing and direct care staff. What are their credentials, what ongoing staff development is provided, etc.

    Medicare once had a website that allowed you to see the results of inspections, not sure if it exists with the felon’s regime.

    7
19. Rob1 says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Matt Bernius: Thanks guys.

    1
20. Sleeping Dog says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Rob1:

    For a while I worked for a software company that specialized in long term care management systems. If you need to find a place for a family member, look first at not-for-profit, religiously affiliated homes are usually among the best. Avoid the large chains, most are either public companies or owned by private equity and all, in my experience, skimp on care to increase profits.

    Among homes in the private sector, small chains, 4-6 homes or standalone homes can be good if the family owning the facility(s) are involved in the day to day operation. Don’t worry about how pretty the facility is, delve into the staffing of the nursing and direct care staff. What are their credentials, what ongoing staff development is provided, etc.

    Medicare once had a website that allowed you to see the results of inspections, not sure if it exists with the felon’s regime.
21. becca says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @CSK: If current election trends are any indication, this pope stunt will guarantee the new pope will continue the tradition of Francis. Pope Francis used to joke that the next pope would be Pope John 24. Pope John 23 presided over Vatican Two.
    Cardinal Dolan can weep in his jewel encrusted golden chalice.

    1
22. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @becca:

    Yeah; I don’t think even MAGA Catholics are too pleased with Trump’s latest stunt.

    1
23. Fortune says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @becca: So Trump posted a meme about him as pope as a show of support for Dolan? And it’s going to backfire because cardinals would be upset about it? Because the cardinals were all thinking “let’s choose an American from New York City” but then they remembered Trump is from NYC and he wants a puppet pope which is why he posted a meme of himself as pope? Do I have it right?
24. Gustopher says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    NIOSH is effectively gone.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/worker-safety-agency-niosh-lays-off-most-remaining-staff/

    Much of the work at NIOSH, an arm of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, had already stalled after an initial round of layoffs on April 1 at the agency ordered by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    New requests for investigations of firefighter injuries and workplace health hazards had already stopped being accepted.

    And we get a little bit of pro-Measles agenda as well. Did measles contribute to the Trump campaign? It’s getting the campaign donor treatment.

    A CDC plan to help Texas schools curb the spread of measles infections was also scrapped due to the layoffs.

    Anyway, nothing to see here, just the executive branch unconstitutionally torching congressionally created agencies.

    2
25. Gustopher says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @becca: I don’t know how anyone not named Pierbattista Pizzaballa can seriously hope to be the next Pope. The only question is the papal name, and I think it’s time for the Catholic Church to become a bit more grounded and let Popes keep their names.

    Pope Pierbattista Pizzaballa.

    How could anyone oppose that?

    2
26. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune:

    As usual, you’re evading the issue. Do you or do you not agree that it’s in horrific bad taste for Trump to post a meme of himself as a pope? I’m not religious, but I respect the sensibilities of those who are.

    3
27. Rob1 says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    The terribly effective efficiency of Trump’s terse language of coded defamation.

    Trump brands his opponents as ‘communists,’ a label loaded with the baggage of American history

    For years, President Donald Trump blamed “communists” for his legal and political troubles. Now, the second Trump administration is deploying that same historically loaded label to cast his opponents — from judges to educators — as threats to American identity, culture and values.

    Why? Trump himself explained the strategy last year when he described how he planned to defeat his Democratic opponent, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, in the White House election.

    “All we have to do is define our opponent as being a communist or a socialist or somebody who is going to destroy our country,” he told reporters at his New Jersey golf club in August. [..]

    On Thursday, senior presidential aide Stephen Miller stepped to the White House podium and uttered the same c-word four times in about 35 minutes during a denunciation of past policies on transgender, diversity and immigration issues.

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-communist-judges-tariff-china-russia-cae626a3699a5411841f646a847c2c7b

    2
28. charontwo says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    The art of the deal”

    “Link”

    It seems like Donald Trump has a “first mover problem” with his disastrous trade war against the world. No country wants to go first since they know Donald Trump will gloat and try to humiliate them. They are seeing what happened in the elections in Canada and in Australia and realize that capitulation means the end of their governing power.

    I teach negotiation. Every negotiation rule was broken by Donald Trump in his disaster trade war.

    First, you never set arbitrary deadlines against yourself.

    Second, if you set arbitrary deadlines, you must meet said deadlines or you lose credibility.

    Third, you want to try and empower your adversary in a negotiation so they feel good about the deal. Trying to humiliate your adversary is the worst thing you can do in a negotiation.

    Fourth, you never want to undermine your negotiating team with mixed messages.

    Fifth, you never want your negotiating team to send mixed messages, different messages, or conflicting messages. You need to have your adversaries know that there is a clear line of communication and hierarchy that they can deal with.

    Sixth, you never want to flag your weaknesses for your adversaries in a negotiation.

    Seventh, you never want to encourage your adversaries to all join forces against your negotiating position.

    Eighth, you want to always seem like a rational actor in a negotiation.

    Ninth, in a good negotiation, the parties each leave certain things on the table because a good negotiation is not about destroying your counterpart in the negotiation.

    Tenth, breaching all of your prior deals with the party you’re currently negotiating with does not inspire confidence.

    3
29. charontwo says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    The art of the deal”

    “Link”

    It seems like Donald Trump has a “first mover problem” with his disastrous trade war against the world. No country wants to go first since they know Donald Trump will gloat and try to humiliate them. They are seeing what happened in the elections in Canada and in Australia and realize that capitulation means the end of their governing power.

    I teach negotiation. Every negotiation rule was broken by Donald Trump in his disaster trade war.

    First, you never set arbitrary deadlines against yourself.

    Second, if you set arbitrary deadlines, you must meet said deadlines or you lose credibility.

    Third, you want to try and empower your adversary in a negotiation so they feel good about the deal. Trying to humiliate your adversary is the worst thing you can do in a negotiation.

    Fourth, you never want to undermine your negotiating team with mixed messages.

    Fifth, you never want your negotiating team to send mixed messages, different messages, or conflicting messages. You need to have your adversaries know that there is a clear line of communication and hierarchy that they can deal with.

    Sixth, you never want to flag your weaknesses for your adversaries in a negotiation.

    Seventh, you never want to encourage your adversaries to all join forces against your negotiating position.

    Eighth, you want to always seem like a rational actor in a negotiation.

    Ninth, in a good negotiation, the parties each leave certain things on the table because a good negotiation is not about destroying your counterpart in the negotiation.

    Tenth, breaching all of your prior deals with the party you’re currently negotiating with does not inspire confidence.

    4
30. Just nutha ignint cracker says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Matt Bernius: Thanks for your continuing (though seemingly thankless sometimes) work keeping the place running. We really do appreciate it even if we’re all a bunch of paranoid worriers.

    @The rest of us: Ease up on the micromanaging and panic-driven “check” “check” “check” when you don’t see what you expect to. Most of us have lives outside this website (at least, I hope most of us do). It should be relatively easy to step away from the keyboard for a while and find other stuff to do. Give yourselves and our hosts a break on the panic.

    8
31. Just nutha ignint cracker says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @charontwo: I LOVED THAT!!!! Great find. Hilarious!
32. Just nutha ignint cracker says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @CSK: Do you subscribe to Truth Social so you can keep track of this sh!*? [mind blown emoji]
33. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    No, not at all. The Trump-as-pope meme is all over the place. Google it.

    2
34. Fortune says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @CSK: As a Catholic I’m deeply offended when Trump posts a meme of himself as a boxer punching someone whose face is replaced by a CNN logo. Oh wait no one on earth is really offended at memes.

    0
35. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune:

    But Trump posing as a pope doesn’t offend you? Interesting.

    1
36. Fortune says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @CSK: Not even slightly. No one would. Nervous church ladies wouldn’t. They might giggle at it.
37. Fortune says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @CSK: Wait a second, when a liberal says “interesting” he usually means “now I got you”! I hope you meant “I misjudged the situation and now I’ve been corrected”.
38. CSK says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune:

    Not at all. Perhaps I should have said that I’m mystified that someone who claims to be Catholic was not offended. The New York State Catholic Conference certainly was.

    4
39. Jax says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune: Actually, when I respond to someone with “Interesting”, I mean it more like I just stepped in a big pile of dog shit.

    6
40. JohnSF says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune:
    “It’s all just fun, and pwning the libs”
    Like it was in the Canadian elections?
    It’s all just the lulz; till it ain’t.

    It may surprise you, but people tend to apply different judgements to statements (which, yes, DO include social media posts) by heads of state and cabinet members as opposed to posts by J. Random-Nobody.
    Weird, eh?

    3
41. just nutha says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @CSK: No thank you. I prefer not paying attention to Trump. OtB provides all of the Trump trivia I can use for an entire week on any single weekday.

    3
42. Fortune says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @JohnSF: Weird how people hate it when you put statements they didn’t make in quotations. Also I never said anything about the Canadian elections.

    I assume anyone who says he’s offended by this action of Trump is expressing offense at Trump in general.
43. Mister Bluster says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:..lives outside this website…
    Yes.
    …step away from the keyboard for a while and find other stuff to do.
    Do I have to?

    I spend more time watching cat videos than I do reading the pearls of wisdom on OTB. I also watch blasphemous videos by a biblical scholar who states that God is lying in Genesis 2:17.
    I did step away from the keyboard today to watch a box turtle just below my front porch. First one that I’ve seen this year. There’s a place by the steps that fills with water when it rains where two or three turtles would spend time last summer. When the rainwater drains I dump more water into the tiny pond for them so that they can hang out.

    1
44. Mister Bluster says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    …expressing offense at Trump in general.

    …you can grab them by the pussy!

    3
45. JohnSF says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune:
    If it had been an actual quote from you, I’d have used the “quote” function.
    It was just a rather sarcastic summary what appears to me to be your attitude.
    And, no, you did not mention the Canadian elections.
    I did.

    Because President Trump’s comments re Canada appear to have backfired somewhat.
    And his rather stupid posts regarding the papal elections are liable also to annoy people in way that he, and the US, may come to find regrettable.

    It may surprise you, but many non-Americans are not much concerned about the domestic US views upon President Trump one way or the other.

    What does tend to cause irritation is when President Trump, or other senior members of his administration, post idiotic things on social media, align with rather dubious political parties, declaim upon other countries constitutional and electoral laws, etc.
    And claiming “it’s just a joke” is simply adding additional insult to initial insult.

    Though speaking for myself, it has to be said, I do regard President Trump as rather offensive in and of himself.
    Because having someone so obviously very, very stupid as an elected executive is destructive of the premises of rational governance as a modern “Western” given.

    4
46. just nutha says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Mister Bluster:

    Do I have to?

    Of course not. You are your own moral and ethical agent and can live in whatever manner you choose. My comment was directed at the possibility that some of us might choose to try to lower the stress of those who are working relatively ceaselessly to restore the site to good working order.

    If that’s not a goal of yours, well and good. You be you, by all means.
47. Jax says:
    Saturday, 3 May 2025 at

    @Fortune: High probablity we’re just annoyed by you, Mr PretendaPope.

    2
48. Mister Bluster says:
    Sunday, 4 May 2025 at

    @Matt Bernius:..normal…

    Thanks for the fix.
    Do you want to be alerted to any future glitches?
49. Jay L Gischer says:
    Sunday, 4 May 2025 at

    The whole Pope Trump thing strikes me as bad taste that has nothing to do with policy. Of course, me noting that it’s bad taste labels me as prissy. You know, just like all those Catholic Bishops that object to it.

    I can find common ground with Catholic Bishops!!!

    3
50. Matt says:
    Wednesday, 7 May 2025 at

    @Fortune: I find the “memes” to be absolutely cringe. The only thing ‘funny’ about the “memes” is how much they deny reality.

    Traditionally memes were supposed to be funny or poignant in some manner. Trumps “memes” are just him role playing and there’s nothing interesting in that.

    As for the pope Trump AI image I know some Catholics that are outraged at the plump bag of sins pretending to be religious at all.