Via E.D. Kain I learn that Scott Brown has taken the lead in the Massachusetts special election in a recent poll:
The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.
Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.
Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said.
The special election in Massachusetts has been interesting to watch. During his well-run campaign, Scott Brown has nimbly managed to raise lots of money and avoid saying or doing anything stupid. In fact, he doesn’t have to say much at all, because I’m pretty sure that every time Martha Coakley opens her mouth, Brown gains in the polls. Which makes it tough to say if her choice to barely campaign is a good idea or a bad one.
Still, this could be quite a nailbiter, as Coakley still has the power of inertia on her side. This is especially the case as the Democratic base in Massachusetts is getting riled up over the prospect of Brown’s election effectively killing healthcare reform. The most interesting wrinkle in this election will come if the Senate and the House manage to come up with compromise legislation before Tuesday. In which case, I think Brown might be a shoo-in.
The two things of interest coming out of this election, though, is the fact that Brown is being propelled by a lot of out-of-state money by the various tea party organizations, which are showing more organized effort than they did in the NY-23 race. Equally of interest is that those organizations are wisely backing a candidate who probably would be considered a RINO worthy of defeat in any other election. That poses an interesting direction for November’s elections–one more focused on Republican victory than Republican infighting. That could make quite a difference in the results.
Of course, another wrinkle would be the effect of a Brown victory on November’s elections. Quite a few toss-up seats are toss-ups because of depressed enthusiasm among Democrats. A Brown victory might change that.
