Shutdown Pressure Points
Upcoming milestones that could force a deal.
The WaPo gang asks the presumably rhetorical question, “Will this government shutdown ever end?”
The list several milestones that could force lawmakers’ hands:
- Friday, October 31: Our uniformed military members will quite likely miss their first paycheck
- Saturday, November 1: The Affordable Care Act marketplace opens without the expiring subsidies in place, wherein those who rely on that for health insurance will see something like a 30 percent price hike
- Tuesday, November 4: Election Day in Virginia and New Jersey
- Tuesday, November 21: The House-passed continuing resolution, which has majority support in the Senate but is being filibustered by Democrats, expires. At which point, we start from scratch.
It seems obvious to me that the first is the most critical. As best I can tell, we’ve never been in this position. While we’ve had many shutdowns since the Carter administration decided that the Antideficiency Act mandates closing the government during lapses in funding, we’ve generally passed defense appropriations before troops felt the crunch.
I was talking over the weekend with a buddy who supports a line unit, and their leadership is having discussions about what happens if soldiers miss two or three paychecks. Many are barely managing their funds as it is. How can we demand that they not only go without paychecks but actually spend money driving to work, maintaining their uniforms, getting haircuts, and the like? It’s just unsustainable.
I’m more skeptical of the next two milestones.
The anointed Democrat has been favored over the anointed Republican* for months, and while there’s some evidence the race has tightened a bit, the Democrat will almost certainly win. The expected happening is not going to change anything.
As for the ACA milestone, I suspect it’ll get fixed. The nature of subsidies is that people quickly feel entitled to them. But lawmakers unwilling to budge over troops forced to work without pay aren’t going to suddenly feel motivated by folks paying somewhat higher healthcare premiums. (Indeed, federal employees are expected to see another big jump in our premiums, as we have every year for awhile. Congress doesn’t seem to care.)
The November 21 deadline—three weeks from tomorrow—is one my colleagues and I were eyeballing at the outset of this fiasco. Not so much as a deadline but as a point when we might have to start this cycle all over again.
*I’ve been following gubernatorial elections for more than four decades and can not recall one in which neither party had a contested primary. Two decidedly lackluster candidates somehow gathered support and didn’t attract opposition.
What has changed this time is that neither side GAF if the government is shut down. MAGA has been brainwashed to hate all aspects of government except those which harm people. Democrats, seeing that the US Government is now nothing but a tool of the rapist thug in the White House, also DGAF. Both parties now agree that the US government is a malign force that’s better off shut down.
You think they’ll fix the ACA subsidies but not military pay? Trump needs the military to shoot demonstrators, he doesn’t need sick poor people at all.
This is why I don’t think the US will directly elect a woman president for the foreseeable future.
Spanberger has a BA from UVA and an MBA from Purdue. She was a CIA operations officer, working on nuclear proliferation and terrorism, and is a former member of Congress. Earle-Sears is a Marine Corp veteran and the first Black woman elected statewide in Virginia. She was also the first female veteran and the first naturalized citizen to be elected to the VA House.
Both of these women are well-accomplished. And yet, somehow, “less than.” “Lackluster.” Etc.
On the topic of pressure points, I think all are valid, and likely to be impactful with numbers 1 & 2 making potentially big impacts. The images of federal workers lining up for food banks won’t get any better either.
Embarassingly, this is yet another thing Trump would have in common with the failed leadership of Putin, who often requires his soldiers fighting in Ukraine to fund their own gas for transport into battle, sometimes fund the vehicles themselves, and for some, their own military kit, all the while scrounging for food.
A lot of people in the military will be surprised when they get nothing, since they’ve been hearing about the Billionaire buddy of Trump giving $130M or so to pay for salaries, not knowing this is enough to fund for a morning or so.
The food stamps are also going to be a big issue. Especially for people who don’t think they’re on food stamps but on Dakota Dollars For Responsible White People or whatever.
Anyway, Republicans can fix this any time they want by either killing the filibuster or negotiating with Democrats.
@Michael Reynolds:
Democrats may have also learned that the paths to power is to break the government when the other party has the presidency. This has been the Republican strategy since the Clinton administration.
The social contract has been broken for decades, and Dems have less reason than ever to try to hold it together.
@Jen:
I characterized them as “lackluster” because neither are impressive on the stump or household names. They’re not the sort of candidates who are typically nominated by acclamation.
Spanberger’s CV is fairly impressive, although wildly over-hyped. She runs commercials touting her experience in law enforcement; she was a Postal Inspector. She gives the impression she was a career CIA officer; she served seven or eight years. She served three terms in the House, during which she accomplished little but earned a reputation as bipartisan. I don’t know that any of that is great preparation for running a state, but she’s conventionally qualified and I’ll vote for her. But, again, she’s not a dynamic candidate.
Sears spent three years in the Marines as an electrician, rising to corporal. It’s honorable service. But she touts it like she was a front-line grunt, posing with firearms. She spent some time in the state legislature before running unsuccesful campaigns for US House and US Senate. She was nominated by a state convention for lieutenant governor; there was no primary. She won the office in a year when Republicans swept the three top offices. And, frankly, she seems to be something of an imbecile. Also, some of her campaign ads are rather sleazy.
Thanks, I was not aware of those pressure points. I was starting to doubt my original support fo the shutdown, but knowing that:
1 – On November 1 people will see their insurance rates go up (giving them a real world example of what this budget does).
2 – The current legislation on the table expires, forcing congress to re-introduce.
These pressure points solidify my support of this shutdown. I am sorry federal workers are going to have to tough it out, but democrats should not be force to voting for something that does not get the 60 votes required. Its the ruling parties job to craft a bill that can pass.
The majority party has vehicles that cannot be filibustered. They used them on other things this year, because they decided to hang it all out on this one.
I don’t understand their reasoning, but they decided to do this. All the way.
I haven’t a clue how this ends.
I have a foreboding that it will end with some kind of disaster, like a multi-aircraft pileup killing hundreds of people. Or an entire ship or unit just going AWOL together.
And Republicans will own it. This is on them. They control all the branches.